My Champions League Prediction

In about 24 hours Manchester United and Barcelona will take the field in Rome. This CL is a lot more exciting to me than the past several editions. There are so many storylines. English champion versus Spanish champion, United trying to be the first team to repeat since AC Milan nearly 20 years ago, Barcelona going for their first treble, Ferguson and his sterling career against Pep in his historical debut season as manager, Messi vs Ronaldo. If this game were being played with all players available for both squads I think Barcelona would be favored. But with only one of their four starting defenders available it is more complicated. The consensus seems to be United are a slight favorite. Here are some things I think will determine the game:

Early Goal- In the knockout rounds of the competition Manchester United won 4 and drew 2. They scored early in all their wins. The latest they got their first goal was the 17th minute in the first leg of the semifinal against Arsenal. In the other three victories they got on the board before the 10 minute mark (4 in the 2nd leg against Inter, 6 in the 2nd leg vs porto, and 8 in the 2nd leg of the semi). The history here seems clear, and being a one game winner take all United will be out to strike early. There is an additional incentive: with a lead they can shift into a more defensive formation, putting bodies in the passing lines in the middle of the field. If this happens the final could resemble the Barcelona-Chelsea games of the semifinal round. If Barcelona get an early goal the game will open up and they could strike again before United pull even, exploiting spaces left open by players sent forward in search of the equalizer.

Set Pieces- Advantage United here, clearly. Cristiano Ronaldo is the best freekick taker on either side. Although Xavi is good in these situations too, the absence of Dani Alves rob Barcelona of the element of surprise they have used when both he and Xavi line up behind a ball just outside the area. The Ferdinand-Vidic pairing may also be a factor on set pieces as they will dominate the air game at both ends of the field.

Barcelona's Width- Without Dani Alves a significant feature of Barcelona's attack will be missing. The runs he made up the right flank, often overlapping Messi and opening dangerous passing routes, will not be duplicated by Carles Puyol as an emergency rightback. The question is whether Messi is asked to do more with less support up the flank, or if he is shifted inward and attacks more up the middle. The second option may be better as he has done very well when playing in a central role this season. Against Chelsea Alves easily gained field position and swung in plenty of crosses but Chelsea's central defenders, inferior to United's, had no problem in clearing them. His absence may force Barca to look for different paths of attack which might be a blessing in disguise.

Makeshift Defense- Clearly Pep would feel more comfortable with Abidal-Marquez-Puyol-Alves than the backline taking the field tomorrow but here too there may be a silver lining. The perceived softness of the patchwork defense may tempt United forward in search of goals. The longer the game remains scoreless and this persists the more it will open space for Iniesta and Xavi to do what they do through the middle of the park. I doubt these 4 can withstand a concerted attack for 90 minutes but if they can hold the fort while the guys in front of them get on the board it could be the difference. Or they could be diced by Rooney, CR7, and co.

Bench- This is an undeniable advantage for Manchester United. All indications point to a starting lineup without Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez. Either one of these players could be a total game changer if a goal is needed in the second half. They bring different offensive skills but are both capable of being the difference. United also have players they can plug into midfield to secure that section of the field if they find themselves trying to hold a lead. Barcelona's surplus attackers are less inspiring. Bojan, Eidur G are serviceable players but if they were to score it would be right-place-right-time more than changing the complexion of the match.

I am really stoked to watch this, it will be a very interesting match. Messi said it best when he described it as the speed and power of United against the touch and passing of Barcelona. Which of the two will prevail? I personally think the winner will be clear regardless of the score. I very much doubt extra time and think either United will demonstrate superiority and crush a big fish in a little pond, or Barcelona's efficiency and movement will disarm United. I would not be surprised with either outcome.

So my prediction is....
....
....
3-1.....

Barcelona