Back/Merry Christmas/WC Group A

Dudes! I am back. I know this blog has been dormant for a while but so what? Who cares?! You are not the boss of me!!!!

So anyway Merry Christmas to everyone. Since I have some time off for the holiday I am thinking of doing a sort of preview for the World Cup, group by group, one a day. First up is Group A, because it is first alphabetically.


GROUP A
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

This has been called one of the strongest groups for a host nation and I don't disagree. I would also point out South Africa is one of the weakest hosts ever, so that factors into it.

South Africa- Whenever a country hosts the WC it prepares for years and years and usually does a pretty good job of not embarrassing itself. There is no reason to think SA will get blown out but I am not nearly as bullish on them as some others. They have changed coaches twice in the last two years, although the last one was a return so maybe one and a half times. I saw them in last summer's Confed Cup and despite holding on until late against Brazil I saw nothing that really impressed me. They have a couple of players that do reasonably well in the Prem, but most of the squad is unknown to me. I don't think they will be a doormat but it would shock me to see them go through.
Player To Watch (PTW): Benny McCarthy. He is a guy who legitimately threatens to score. I get the feeling South Africa aren't a team that create goals with ease so they will need him to be the hitman he has been at Rovers.

Mexico- This current incarnation of the Mexican squad is not terribly powerful. They had a rough go of qualifying and Mexico are not a team that usually travels well. Does that help or hurt in a neutral-ish sight like South Africa? Who knows. Beyond the run of form and intangibles I just don't think this line up is that great. It is not awful either Mexico look like the kind of team that will cobble together a starting 11 and take it game by game. One thing that has stuck out to me over the years is the fragility of Mexican teams in international tournaments. Once they go a goal down a game that they looked very much in all of a sudden escapes them as they doubt themselves and their teammates. This is a group where they may well be down a goal more than once and they can not allow themselves to implode if they want to make it to the knockout rounds.
PTW: Rafa Marquez. Although he has seen his starts limited at Barcelona by the emergence of Gerard Pique Marquez remains a quality defender and possibly the best player on this team. As a center-half he will have to be at his very, very best in order to contain the French and Uruguayan strikers. If Mexico don't take at least 2 points in those matches they are not going through.

Uruguay- Maybe it is because I closely watch CONMEBOL, or maybe it is because I am huge history nerd and appreciate their pedigree, but I like this team much more than most people going into next summer. Like all Charua squads they are gritty to the brink of viciousness, and they have a couple of truly elite skill players. Forlan is the reigning Spanish and European golden boot and Luis Suarez holds the crown in Holland. Both of these guys are lethal. With an old but reliable Sebastian Abreu coming off the bench as a poor man's Peter Crouch they have a diverse attack. The flaw in this team is inconsistency. They routinely get results against great teams and drop points to very humble opposition. This may have to do with the thinness of the squad which in turn has to do with the comparatively small and aging population of Uruguay. It is very difficult to predict how they will do but I find myself liking their chances.
PTW: It would be easy to pick one of the bombers up front but I am going to say Diego Lugano. He isn't as talked about in the Americas because he plays in the relative purgatory of Turkish football but he is a fitting captain and embodies the tradition of Uruguayan football. In defense he is tough and rugged when he needs to but also skilled enough to separate attackers from the ball without drawing a foul. The goals he scores often seem to come in big spots like the one in San Jose during the play-in. When Diego Lugano is on Uruguay are a very good team. When he is absent or seems lost they are very run-of-the-mill.

France- For a team who is the current runner-up, has won both a World Cup and a Euro in the last dozen years, and features starters from the reigning English, Spanish, and European champion clubs France are being taken very lightly. And for good reason (sort of). Beyond the obvious legitimacy question of their qualification, Raymond Domenech is a completely inept manager who happens to find himself in command of a squad full of mind blowing talent. His tactical shortcomings are obvious and personal problems with players are legendary. If he is able to keep himself out of his team's own way, or if he is sacked before South Africa, France could be a big contender. Anelka, Henry, Benzema, Ribery, Gomis, and Govou lead what could be a superstar attack. Despite a so-so tenure at AC Milan I am very high on Flamini as a holding midfielder, and the backline which includes Abidal, Gallas, and Evra is more than enough. They have a good pool of keepers to choose from, but like with most things, expect Domenech to make it harder than it should be.
PTW: Franck Ribery. A truly world class attacking player Ribery threatens just as much by creating chances as he does to score goals himself. His absence in qualifiers made the task a little harder than it needed to be. If he is healthy and in form next summer the strike corps will feast on the opportunities he creates.

My Group Prediction:
1. France (9)
2. Uruguay (6)
3. Mexico (1)
4. South Africa (1)