Monday, March 15, 2010

There Will be Eight

United, Lyon, Arsenal, and Bayern are through and within 48 hours they will know the other four teams in the Champion's League quarter finals. I am pretty excited for these next two days of football. America's disregard for global conventions regarding daylight savings plays to our advantage as on the east coast matches will kick off at 3:45, making it entirely reasonable to catch the second half live without having to make up an excuse for sneaking out of work. Score one for USA. Here are some thoughts on the eve of the games:

TOMORROW (3/16)

Chelsea vs Inter Milan
This is clearly the glamour match up of the round. Inter are heading to the bridge with a 2-1 lead in hand but that means very little. Chelsea rarely lose at Stamford Bridge. Fortunately for Inter, Mourinho loses there even less often than Chelsea. Ancelotti's is a steady hand and with a one goal deficit and the away goal in hand I don't think Chelsea will be guilty of exposing themselves due to eagerness in chasing the first goal. They will go forward of course but it does not feel like one of those second leg games where if the home side don't score in the first twenty minutes or so the game is over. I still think Inter go through, and I see it being a score draw tomorrow.

Sevilla vs CSKA Moscow
Sevilla's composition will be markedly different tomorrow than in the first leg. Replacing Alvaro Negredo will be Luis Fabiano who didn't play in Moscow due to injury. Reports have him as the lone man up top as Sevilla will come out in a 4-4-1-1. With a 1-1 result in their pocket Sevilla have the luxury of making their opponents chase the game on hostile ground. CSKA Moscow have looked a cut below to me and although they are at this stage of the competition for a reason I do not see them going into Andalucia and blowing Sevilla away. They will probably score but I don't expect tomorrow's match, or the aggregate score, to be close. Sevilla 3-1 or something like that.


WEDNESDAY ( 3/17)
Barcelona vs Stuttgart
Barcelona may have been nudged off their perch in La Liga but yesterday's demolition of Valencia (who sit in a CL spot as of now, not exactly bottom feeders) indicates they have not lost form. The 1-1 they got in Germany is useful but it will be irrelevant in the second leg. I see them winning this game outright, with ease. I know I had a similar prediction a couple weeks back and they were unable to pull it off but this feels like one of the games Guardiola's team is made for. 2-0 at the Nou Camp.

Bordeaux vs Olympiakos
Being between two perhaps not as well known teams this match up has not gotten a lot of attention. In my opinion Bordeaux is a clear step above Olympiakos and while I thought they would ride out the away leg with a draw they were able to get the win on foreign soil. It is difficult to think of a realistic scenario in which Olympiakos turn it around in France. Bordeaux won a group that included Bayern Munich and Juventus and to date have the stingiest defense in the Champion's League. I do not see Olympiaklos finding the key that unlocks it on Wednesday. 2-0 will put Bordeaux into the quarter finals.

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