Quarters' Second Half (lotsa math!)

Here we are on the brink of finding out who are the last four standing in the best club competition ON EARTH. I love Champions' League weeks and this one is especially tight because the time zone difference will give us back to back live matches tomorrow. Inter visit Moscow at 12:30 NY time and then Barcelona host Arsenal right after that. Should be a great set of matches. This is what I see coming:


CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.


Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.


Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.


Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.