Thoughts After Game 1s

Every team has now played their first game in the 2010 World Cup, and Uruguay and the host have just finished their second. Still very early in the tournament and patterns and story lines are yet to emerge, but here are some thoughts on the story so far:

Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:

First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.

Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.

Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.


Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.


Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.

The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.

The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.


Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.

On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.


Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.


Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).

And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...


Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.

My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.


Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.


Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.

2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.

3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.

Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.