Ready, Set, Prem!

The Community Shield is behind us, less than three weeks remain in the transfer window, and tomorrow the Premiership returns! Last year we saw a more competitive league at the high end of table than in recent years and I suspect the same is in store for 2010-2011. There will be interesting story lines throughout the season and I believe relegation, European qualification, and the title will all go down to the last round or two. Here are some random thoughts/predictions of mine as we sit on the brink of the new season:

Chelsea won't repeat-
Despite not clinching the title until the last match of the season Chelsea were clearly deserved champions. Against the rest of the "big 4" they were a combined 6-0 with an impressive goal differential. They also set a single season goal record. And yet I think they will relinquish the crown this year. Joe Cole and Michael Ballack's exits were relatively minor and the acquisition of Ramires and Yossi Benayoun along with a return to fitness of Michael Essien may well cancel them out. A more problematic personnel move is the late departure of Ricardo Carvalho for Real Madrid. This leaves Chelsea's central defense exposed. John Terry is not the player he was even two years ago, Alex has yet to prove himself a 38 games a year defender, and there does not appear to be much depth. Ivanovic is probably the best of the backline at Stamford Bridge.

But title runs have been made with similar defenses. The real reasons I think Chelsea will have a very hard time repeating are A, priorities, and B, age. They just won their 3rd Premiership title in 6 seasons but have never won the Champions League/European Cup. Chelsea supporters and ownership alike have their sights set on that title and given they have demonstrated their domestic power over the last half dozen years it would make sense for the focus to be on Europe. Add to that Ancelotti's proven success in the Champions League and the feeling he was brought in more or less with that goal in mind and the priorities seem evident.

Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, and Terry are among the players over 30 on the roster. It is always tough to say at what point exactly a player's career passes its peak and begins to its descent but I have a feeling for at least some of these guys that point is dangerously close. Consider that on top of the 4 fronts the squad is fighting on Chelsea had more players at the World Cup than any other club in Europe. Didier Drogba, the prem's golden boot last season, has had two unrelated surgeries since lifting the trophy in May and also played not one but two international tournaments since New Year's. The demonstrated drop in quality from Terry and Anelka over the last year can not be ignored.

Chelsea are still one of the best teams in England and could well left one or more trophies this coming season. I just don't think they have the depth, fitness, and ability to go through the grueling 38 match season and come out on top.


How Good is Rooney, Does it Matter?
Wayne Rooney was head and shoulders above the rest of the league last season. Can he do it again? Everyone knows he led United in goals and the club's second highest source of offense was opposition's own goals. They have had a modest off-season and although Javier Hernandez and Tom Cleverly looked good in pre-season this squad is not nearly as talented as the Rooney-Ronaldo-Tevez version that won the double a few years back. So the big questions are can Wayne Rooney repeat what he did last season? And if not, are there other guys in the team that can pick up his slack? I tend to think the answer to both questions is no, but we will see.


Beware the Citizens-
I am going to go out on a limb and pick Manchester City to win the Premiership this season. They made a marked improvement last season and despite coming up just short of the Champions League have returned to a place they have not been in many, many years. With much of the same squad in tact and the continuation of Mancini I like their chances. What it really comes down to is that Manchester City have the talent, resources, and schedule in their favor.

A team with a play money budget like City will always be the focus of rumors but even the Balotelli (potentially volatile) signing is their last I don't think an objective look at their roster can say they are second best to anyone in the Prem. Two solid goalkeepers, an improved backline with an attacking option at fullback, a deep and talented midfield, and a strike corps that can score in different ways. And if anything is missing they can always go shopping again in January.

What I think may well be the difference maker is a combination between the new (and stupid) 25-man rule and City's priorities. Missing out on the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise. Where Chelsea will make that their number one goal, City is free to focus on the domestic title. No one will begrudge an alternative line-up for a Europa League match, and although the FA Cup is important, if a match in February has to be sacrificed to ensure the best shot at winning a key league game most City supporters will understand. The new squad restrictions will force teams to make decisions and sacrifices they are not used to. If Mancini handles it properly it will be to his team's advantage.


Newcomers-
I think Mauro Boselli will have a good first season at Wigan. The sale of Jason Scottland indicates Roberto Martinez is content with him and Hugo Rodallega as the primary options up front. I have seen him play a lot for Estudiantes and think he is coming in a little under the radar. Very technically gifted. Maybe a bit on the small side for the Premiership but very intelligent player and lethal with both feet as well as in the air. 12 goals or so I think is realistic.

The other new guy I see putting in a lot of goal is Maroune Chamahk. I know this won't be a surprise but for a guy whose name was thrown around so much last year his move to the Emirates was surprisingly quiet. And coming in he doesn't seem to be getting too much attention. Having him up top gives Arsenal something they have lacked for years aside from the occasional streak when Bendtner gets hot. With Cesc staying for at least one more season I think Chamakh will hit the ground running.


Breakout-
Daniel Sturridge at Chelsea. Gifted and able young striker in an aging group of attack players. He probably wont be first choice but will get plenty of opportunities.


Relegation-
Predicting failure and ruin is not really fun but I think Wolves, Blackpool, and West Brom will be in the Championship next year.


Intriguing Situation-
Who is in goal for Manchester City? Joe Hart and Shay Given are probably both in the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premiership and they happen to be on the same team. Who gets the job? Does the other guy go on loan? Very interesting as the month goes on.


Spurs-
I think will make it out of the group stage of the Champions League. I am not a Spurs supporter but I have a soft spot for this group and wish them well.