Thoughts on Tomorrow's Manchester Derby

City-United means City divided, the Manchester derby always has its share of appeal, but tomorrow's edition has is particularly intriguing. It is the first time in decades the two teams are this close this late in the season. Only five points separate table toppers United from third place City. There are other storylines like Tevez versus his old team and the sense that new-money City may be on the brink of becoming more than the noisy neighbor. Going in two things stand out to me: City are well set to trouble United, and the Premiership title could be decided in this game.

For a club with a seemingly unlimited supply of transfer funds Manchester City have placed a surprising focus on defense. Solid, stingy play in their end kept them afloat through some lean times offensively. But they are much more than a defend and counter team. Yes the spine of the team is rock solid from Joe Hart in goal to the center halves to the De Jong-Barry-Toure holding midfield corps. But they an array of attacking options. The Tevez-Dzeko partnership up front is lethal. Adam Johnson and David Silva are among the very best widemen in the Prem and Silva can also be used as a creative force more closely behind the strikers. And they do have the ability to attack from the fullback positions with Zabaleta and Boateng. This matters because given their ability to close space in the middle of the park United will be forced to look for creative ways to generate opportunities, likely committing men forward, and there will be chances for City to strike.

As awkward as it feels to write this sentence, for having been undefeated into February United aren't that good a team. They are a very good team, but the fact they pulled off that feat and are only four points clear of Arsenal and five of City says a lot. What they are is professional and efficient. United take the points they should and that may be enough to reclaim the crown. But there is a lot at stake tomorrow. If they are unable to rebound from the odd debacle at Wolves last week and one loss turns to two, they would find themselves with two clubs breathing down their necks and within two points. Although they would remain in the driver's seat for the time being I am convinced the lighter calender will give City an advantage. They are free to concentrate fully on the league and while Chelsea and even Arsenal can rotate players and remain reasonably competitive the United squad, particularly in midfield and the middle of the defense, is worryingly thin. At the same time a United victory may solidify their lead.

This will be a fascinating game to watch and no outcome would shock me, but I am going to say Manchester City win by a goal.