So that is my world cup prediction at the start of the new year. To recap here is how I see the round of 16:
France (1A) vs. Greece (2B)
Argentina (1B) vs. Uruguay (2A)
England (1C) vs. Ghana (2D)
Germany (1D) vs. USA (2C)
Netherlands (1E) vs. Italy (2F)
Paraguay (1F) vs. Denmark (2E)
Brazil (1G) vs. Chile (2H)
Spain (1H) vs. Portugal (2G)
I hope I am right. I love being right.
In much, much, much worse news, I am sure everyone has heard about the tragedy on the eve of the African Cup of Nations. Angolan rebels attacked the Togo team bus. The machine gun attack left at least four dead and many wounded. There is some dispute regarding the actual death toll and whether or not any players were among the fatalities, but ESPNsoccernet is reporting a goalkeeper was killed. I have seen that account denied in the European press, we will know soon.
I can't put into words how hard this bums me out. Togo rightly withdrew from the tournament and Marca claim that Ghana and Ivory Coast are on the verge of joining them. It is easy to blame Angola for lapse in security, and perhaps it is correct. But for me that is not the issue. The sadness is overwhelming when a tournament of such importance is subject to this. It is cliche for many of us in the western world to say things like "football is more than a game" and things of that nature, but the reality is that in some parts of Africa football is that rare thing that gets people to stop killing each other, at least for a while. And even if it sounds naive, to me it seems that when something like this comes along and ruins it, a certain bottom has dropped out.
How does/should this impact the world cup in South Africa? I don't know. It is well known that South Africa is a country with serious security problems, but they have had enough time to plan and from all accounts the South African government has been very good at seeking advice from abroad and coordinating it's efforts. A little over a year ago I was talking to a South African who lives here in the US about it and he told me in his opinion security would not be too much of an issue because the government would slam down an iron fist and create a pseudo-police state for the duration of the competition. I don't know if this is true but he made it sound plausible. It is probably for the best if it ensures the safety of players, staff, journalists, fans, and others. At the same time on a deeper level having that kind of thing happen in a host country kind of tarnishes what the game and the tournament should be about. It may be the reality of what has to happen, but it is not at all what I think a world cup should be.
Showing posts with label 2010 World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 World Cup. Show all posts
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Group H
H is for Heathrow, Heathers (the movie), Heather (the name), and hockey which is probably my favorite team sport other than football. H is also the final group.
Group H
Switzerland, Chile, Spain, Honduras
This one looks pretty straight forward to me. Four teams, each at a very different level with distinct playing styles. Surprises are always possible but I think we know how this one is going to go.
Switzerland- They had an impressive run in 2006 making it through the group stage on an airtight defense. We all know they were the only team to go out without conceding and that was cool. But their unimpressive performance as host of the Euro two years later was a let down. Switzerland aren't a bad team but I see them as a kind of "happy to be here" squad. Maybe they get to four points, and in some scenarios that could be enough, we will see.
PTW- I dunno.
Spain- The best team in the tournament as of right now Spain will demolish this group. They have what looks to be a perfect set of conditions. Skilled players that also want to win and know how, a hungry and accomplished coach who can both motivate and handle the tactical side of managing, a deep squad that boasts more than one elite player at nearly every position, a group of players mostly at or near their prime, and the experience of having won a major trophy recently. One of the things that makes Spain easy to like as a neutral observer is that they are a superpower that wins and wins and wins but does it always on their terms. And in their case that means fluid, attractive, and attacking football.
PTW- Andres Iniesta. Spain are overloaded with superstars so this is subjective, but I think he is a key piece. At both club and country level Iniesta's teams have been nearly unbeatable the last 18 months. But take a look at the rare occasions they have lost: he has been absent. It may or may not be a coincidence but when Iniesta is running and touching and passing alongside Xavi there is no other midfield duo in the world that can approach them.
Honduras- This team is garbage. They qualified through Concacaf where they are an okay side, but on the big stage in a group where they are clearly the worst of the four their chances are extremely slim.
PTW- Carlos Pavon. Maybe he gets them a much needed goal. Does he get them two or three? Seriously doubt it, but maybe he makes me eat my words.
Chile- Much like Paraguay this is a team that will surprise those who do not follow the South American game. Marcelo Bielsa whipped the Chileans into a disciplined and astute team that can control the flow of a game to their advantage. Watching them play in qualifying was very enjoyable. They had a few signature wins over regional rivals and I fully expect them to take second place in this group. Chile do not have a great history at world cups but this team is cohesive and organized and has some legitimately good players like Alexis Sanchez and Chupete Suazo.
PTW- Speaking of... Suazo plays in the comparatively inferior Mexican league but he is a true goal scorer who is able to bury chances when they arrive. In this tournament I see the team laboring to create opportunities for him and he will seal the deal the if they are to go through. And he probably will.
Group H predictions
1. Spain (9)
2. Chile (6)
3. Switzerland (3)
4. Honduras (3)
Group H
Switzerland, Chile, Spain, Honduras
This one looks pretty straight forward to me. Four teams, each at a very different level with distinct playing styles. Surprises are always possible but I think we know how this one is going to go.
Switzerland- They had an impressive run in 2006 making it through the group stage on an airtight defense. We all know they were the only team to go out without conceding and that was cool. But their unimpressive performance as host of the Euro two years later was a let down. Switzerland aren't a bad team but I see them as a kind of "happy to be here" squad. Maybe they get to four points, and in some scenarios that could be enough, we will see.
PTW- I dunno.
Spain- The best team in the tournament as of right now Spain will demolish this group. They have what looks to be a perfect set of conditions. Skilled players that also want to win and know how, a hungry and accomplished coach who can both motivate and handle the tactical side of managing, a deep squad that boasts more than one elite player at nearly every position, a group of players mostly at or near their prime, and the experience of having won a major trophy recently. One of the things that makes Spain easy to like as a neutral observer is that they are a superpower that wins and wins and wins but does it always on their terms. And in their case that means fluid, attractive, and attacking football.
PTW- Andres Iniesta. Spain are overloaded with superstars so this is subjective, but I think he is a key piece. At both club and country level Iniesta's teams have been nearly unbeatable the last 18 months. But take a look at the rare occasions they have lost: he has been absent. It may or may not be a coincidence but when Iniesta is running and touching and passing alongside Xavi there is no other midfield duo in the world that can approach them.
Honduras- This team is garbage. They qualified through Concacaf where they are an okay side, but on the big stage in a group where they are clearly the worst of the four their chances are extremely slim.
PTW- Carlos Pavon. Maybe he gets them a much needed goal. Does he get them two or three? Seriously doubt it, but maybe he makes me eat my words.
Chile- Much like Paraguay this is a team that will surprise those who do not follow the South American game. Marcelo Bielsa whipped the Chileans into a disciplined and astute team that can control the flow of a game to their advantage. Watching them play in qualifying was very enjoyable. They had a few signature wins over regional rivals and I fully expect them to take second place in this group. Chile do not have a great history at world cups but this team is cohesive and organized and has some legitimately good players like Alexis Sanchez and Chupete Suazo.
PTW- Speaking of... Suazo plays in the comparatively inferior Mexican league but he is a true goal scorer who is able to bury chances when they arrive. In this tournament I see the team laboring to create opportunities for him and he will seal the deal the if they are to go through. And he probably will.
Group H predictions
1. Spain (9)
2. Chile (6)
3. Switzerland (3)
4. Honduras (3)
Monday, January 4, 2010
Group G
Get is for Get it Over With, which is pretty much how I feel about this group. I have heard a lot of people floating the idea that this is a group of death, but that is wrong. There is one legitimate doormat in North Korea, and as attractive as some of the names in the Ivorian squad are, Brazil and Portugal will only fail to advance if they give less than they are capable of.
Group G
Brazil, North Korea, Portugal, Ivory Coast
Brazil- All the plaudits go without saying. They are a machine and should cruise through the group. I will add that this team may not thrill the fans back home as much as previous editions but are superior to most Brazilian squads on set pieces and counter attacks, making them even more dangerous. Dunga also has his team buying into running, tackling, and defending in a way not many (or any that I can remember) Brazilian national teams have before. There is very much a "take the right players, not the best players" approach at work here.
If you are looking for a clue that a stumble is possible you can probably find it in their track record. Dunga took the reins of Brazil's olympic team in 2008 which included some heavy-weights as their 3 age exempt players and they looked dreadful. Early in qualifying this team looked very boring and dropped points they normally would have won in their sleep. That said they are one of the two or three best teams in the world and most of the players on their subs bench are in the first 11 at elite clubs in Europe.
*I hate them more than any national team in the world. So much so that a few months ago I told someone, "if North Korea and Iran fielded a joint national soccer team, I would pull for them against Brazil." And as it works out I will get the chance to do half of that this coming summer. Probably the only time I will be cheering for North Korea in anything.
PTW- Luis Fabiano. Since the begining of this European season he is looked like the most lethal striker in the world at times. It seems he is level-headed and humble, something that can be rare in Brazilian goal scorers, and that probably meshes well with Dunga's philosophy. If Luis Fabiano does not tear it up Brazil have no lack of firepower, but I get the feeling he could walk away from this tournament having put his name among the Cristiano Ronaldos and Lionel Messis as a global superstar.
North Korea- Seriously. Who knows? It is next to impossible to find any information on their players and, obviously, I have spent zero hours watching an actual North Korean match. This manager profile from ESPNsoccernet is somewhat informative and extremely entertaining. It appears they are a defensively-focused side. Maybe that will allow them to exit the group stage with some dignity but realistically against the three opponents they have drawn no hunkering down is going to spare them. Read the profile, it is intriguing.
PTW- I can't even find their names.
Portugal-
To me they are clearly not as good as Brazil but just as clearly better than rest of the group. Carlos Quieroz is a very good tactician and football mind but just has something missing when it comes to being a manager. This was evident in Portugal's difficulty in qualifying. Be that as it may, there is no bigger stage in sports than the World Cup and I am sure his players will find it within themselves to rise to the occasion. In some ways this team can be seen as a superstar with pieces around him but a closer look reveals a much more complete side. Bruno Alves, Ricardo Carvalho, Ferriera, and Pepe are a very solid defense. Nani, Deco, and Assuncao are legitimate midfielders in their own right and will enhance Cristiano Ronaldo's play. Up top they might be a little thin but Liedson is a reliable if generic striker. I think Portugal and the Ivory Coast will both beat North Korea and both lose to Brazil, so second place will come down to either a) their opening game against each other or b) goal difference. In the head to head I like Portugal's well rounded squad and if it comes down to it I think Cristiano Ronaldo is better than Didier Drogba.
PTW- The Greasy One. Like Messi with Argentina, it is hard to pick someone over Ronaldo.
Ivory Coast-
This team is the darling of many football fans around the world and you can understand why. They are a good team, arguably the best on their continent, but the opponents in this group will make passage extremely difficult. This team has an exceptional spine with Kolo Toure in central defense, Yaya Toure anchoring the midfield as a ball-winner, and Didier Drogba threatening up top. Ultimately I think they will make an early exit because the other players around them don't match up with the supporting casts of Portugal and Brazil. That the squad will be taxed with the additional games and travel of the African Cup of Nations this month does not help.
PTW- Didier Drogba. Everyone has seem him do his thing in Europe for the last few years. One of the best and most exciting strikers in the world. He is deadly up close but much more than that. With a powerful and accurate shot Drogba is capable of putting in a freekick that makes the difference in a tight match and can also fire on the run from 20-25 yards out. That is the good. The (maybe?) bad is his fitness. Drogba is on the far side of thirty and although not a "man of glass" he has been hampered by injuries in recent years. Factor in that between today and their match against Portugal he will have played in the African Cup of Nations, the Premiership, the FA Cup, and the Champions League and there is a good chance he will not be at his absolute peak.
Group G predictions:
1. Brazil (9)
2. Portugal (6)
3. Ivory Coast (3)
4. North Korea (0)
Group G
Brazil, North Korea, Portugal, Ivory Coast
Brazil- All the plaudits go without saying. They are a machine and should cruise through the group. I will add that this team may not thrill the fans back home as much as previous editions but are superior to most Brazilian squads on set pieces and counter attacks, making them even more dangerous. Dunga also has his team buying into running, tackling, and defending in a way not many (or any that I can remember) Brazilian national teams have before. There is very much a "take the right players, not the best players" approach at work here.
If you are looking for a clue that a stumble is possible you can probably find it in their track record. Dunga took the reins of Brazil's olympic team in 2008 which included some heavy-weights as their 3 age exempt players and they looked dreadful. Early in qualifying this team looked very boring and dropped points they normally would have won in their sleep. That said they are one of the two or three best teams in the world and most of the players on their subs bench are in the first 11 at elite clubs in Europe.
*I hate them more than any national team in the world. So much so that a few months ago I told someone, "if North Korea and Iran fielded a joint national soccer team, I would pull for them against Brazil." And as it works out I will get the chance to do half of that this coming summer. Probably the only time I will be cheering for North Korea in anything.
PTW- Luis Fabiano. Since the begining of this European season he is looked like the most lethal striker in the world at times. It seems he is level-headed and humble, something that can be rare in Brazilian goal scorers, and that probably meshes well with Dunga's philosophy. If Luis Fabiano does not tear it up Brazil have no lack of firepower, but I get the feeling he could walk away from this tournament having put his name among the Cristiano Ronaldos and Lionel Messis as a global superstar.
North Korea- Seriously. Who knows? It is next to impossible to find any information on their players and, obviously, I have spent zero hours watching an actual North Korean match. This manager profile from ESPNsoccernet is somewhat informative and extremely entertaining. It appears they are a defensively-focused side. Maybe that will allow them to exit the group stage with some dignity but realistically against the three opponents they have drawn no hunkering down is going to spare them. Read the profile, it is intriguing.
PTW- I can't even find their names.
Portugal-
To me they are clearly not as good as Brazil but just as clearly better than rest of the group. Carlos Quieroz is a very good tactician and football mind but just has something missing when it comes to being a manager. This was evident in Portugal's difficulty in qualifying. Be that as it may, there is no bigger stage in sports than the World Cup and I am sure his players will find it within themselves to rise to the occasion. In some ways this team can be seen as a superstar with pieces around him but a closer look reveals a much more complete side. Bruno Alves, Ricardo Carvalho, Ferriera, and Pepe are a very solid defense. Nani, Deco, and Assuncao are legitimate midfielders in their own right and will enhance Cristiano Ronaldo's play. Up top they might be a little thin but Liedson is a reliable if generic striker. I think Portugal and the Ivory Coast will both beat North Korea and both lose to Brazil, so second place will come down to either a) their opening game against each other or b) goal difference. In the head to head I like Portugal's well rounded squad and if it comes down to it I think Cristiano Ronaldo is better than Didier Drogba.
PTW- The Greasy One. Like Messi with Argentina, it is hard to pick someone over Ronaldo.
Ivory Coast-
This team is the darling of many football fans around the world and you can understand why. They are a good team, arguably the best on their continent, but the opponents in this group will make passage extremely difficult. This team has an exceptional spine with Kolo Toure in central defense, Yaya Toure anchoring the midfield as a ball-winner, and Didier Drogba threatening up top. Ultimately I think they will make an early exit because the other players around them don't match up with the supporting casts of Portugal and Brazil. That the squad will be taxed with the additional games and travel of the African Cup of Nations this month does not help.
PTW- Didier Drogba. Everyone has seem him do his thing in Europe for the last few years. One of the best and most exciting strikers in the world. He is deadly up close but much more than that. With a powerful and accurate shot Drogba is capable of putting in a freekick that makes the difference in a tight match and can also fire on the run from 20-25 yards out. That is the good. The (maybe?) bad is his fitness. Drogba is on the far side of thirty and although not a "man of glass" he has been hampered by injuries in recent years. Factor in that between today and their match against Portugal he will have played in the African Cup of Nations, the Premiership, the FA Cup, and the Champions League and there is a good chance he will not be at his absolute peak.
Group G predictions:
1. Brazil (9)
2. Portugal (6)
3. Ivory Coast (3)
4. North Korea (0)
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Group F
Group F
Italy, Slovakia, Paraguay, New Zealand
In my mind this is one of the more straight forward groups in World Cup 2010. I think the more casual fan of the game might be surprised at how it shakes out but if you had an eye on qualifying Group F is likely to follow a script.
Italy- Of all the world powers Italy are the most likely to underwhelm in the group stages of a tournament. They are also the most likely to turn it around and go on a run. It is a little strange to think they are the actual title holders as this team feels and looks very different from the squad that won in Germany. I see the Italians as a national team in transition. There is a whole crop of young players in their early 20s that are capable of shining on the big stage, but the older generation are not quite out the door. It will be interesting to see if Marcelo Lippi gives the Camoranesi, Gattuso, Pirlo, Cannavaro crowd one last turn or if guys like Santon, Montolivo, Pepe, and maybe Aquafresca make this their own team. There is a strange discord between Lippi and Antonio Cassano which makes his inclusion all but impossible. That is too bad as Cassano is a player of rare ability that could provide this team with a creative spark in attack. Ther personnel aside the way Italy will play is not a mystery: they are an Italian squad coached by Marcelo Lippi. Defense.
PTW- Giorgio Chiellini. This group is not overflowing with dangerous center-forward types so he is not likely to be tested, but I am incredibly high on him. Perhaps the best central defender in the world. If and when Italy come up against a heavy-weight, Chiellini's effectiveness against a world class 9 will determine how far they progress.
New Zealand- I have always had a soft spot for all things Kiwi, for reasons I do not understand. Their football team is no exception and in a game where I don't have "a dog in the fight" I wish them all the best. That said it is impossible to like their chances. The squad is comprised of very modest talent, a few guys who have played at humble European clubs or MLS. Their drubbing at the Confed Cup last summer may well be a preview of what happens on their next trip to South Africa.
PTW- I don't know.
Paraguay- A disciplined, well coached, focused side with a bit more skill that people realize Paraguay may be one of the sleeper teams in this tournament. They have appeared in the last 3 world cups and this might be the one where they turn heads. Their impressive run in qualifying included wins over Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. Paraguay are coached by Gerardo Martino who is tactically minded to the point of maybe being obsessive but has also been able to produce an atmosphere where every player knows they are working for each other and the shirt and are willing to do whatever it takes to get the result. In what we have seen of them they rarely if ever stray from that formula.
PTW- Oscar Cardozo. Cardozo has been one of the stars in Benfica's current challenge for the Portugese title. He has been at the club since 2007 and scored an impressive 64 goals in 70 games (!) which should be enough to convince that he is not on a good run of luck. Although sometimes strike partner Roque Santa Cruz has gotten more attention in the English speaking media I think Paraguay's offensive output is more dependent on the play of Cardozo.
Slovakia- A modest but able European side, Slovakia will need a rival in the group stage to slip if they are to make it through. The team looks solid in a defense built around Martin Skrtel and has some legitimate spark going forward with Marek Hamsik and Vlad Weiss as attacking midfielders. If the pieces around them take care of the ball and Slovakia collectively run, grind, and tackle, perhaps it is enough. I kind of like this team but I am not sure they have what it takes.
PTW- Marek Hamsik. He has been killing it at Napoli for a few seasons now and I am eager to see him at a big international tournament. In addition to his creativity Hamsik is blessed with a cannon of a shot that can keep defenders on alert as he approaches. He must have at least one big game against either Paraguay or Italy to give Slovakia a shot at passage.
Group F predictions:
1. Paraguay (9)
2. Italy (6)
3. Slovakia (3)
4. New Zealand (0)
Italy, Slovakia, Paraguay, New Zealand
In my mind this is one of the more straight forward groups in World Cup 2010. I think the more casual fan of the game might be surprised at how it shakes out but if you had an eye on qualifying Group F is likely to follow a script.
Italy- Of all the world powers Italy are the most likely to underwhelm in the group stages of a tournament. They are also the most likely to turn it around and go on a run. It is a little strange to think they are the actual title holders as this team feels and looks very different from the squad that won in Germany. I see the Italians as a national team in transition. There is a whole crop of young players in their early 20s that are capable of shining on the big stage, but the older generation are not quite out the door. It will be interesting to see if Marcelo Lippi gives the Camoranesi, Gattuso, Pirlo, Cannavaro crowd one last turn or if guys like Santon, Montolivo, Pepe, and maybe Aquafresca make this their own team. There is a strange discord between Lippi and Antonio Cassano which makes his inclusion all but impossible. That is too bad as Cassano is a player of rare ability that could provide this team with a creative spark in attack. Ther personnel aside the way Italy will play is not a mystery: they are an Italian squad coached by Marcelo Lippi. Defense.
PTW- Giorgio Chiellini. This group is not overflowing with dangerous center-forward types so he is not likely to be tested, but I am incredibly high on him. Perhaps the best central defender in the world. If and when Italy come up against a heavy-weight, Chiellini's effectiveness against a world class 9 will determine how far they progress.
New Zealand- I have always had a soft spot for all things Kiwi, for reasons I do not understand. Their football team is no exception and in a game where I don't have "a dog in the fight" I wish them all the best. That said it is impossible to like their chances. The squad is comprised of very modest talent, a few guys who have played at humble European clubs or MLS. Their drubbing at the Confed Cup last summer may well be a preview of what happens on their next trip to South Africa.
PTW- I don't know.
Paraguay- A disciplined, well coached, focused side with a bit more skill that people realize Paraguay may be one of the sleeper teams in this tournament. They have appeared in the last 3 world cups and this might be the one where they turn heads. Their impressive run in qualifying included wins over Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. Paraguay are coached by Gerardo Martino who is tactically minded to the point of maybe being obsessive but has also been able to produce an atmosphere where every player knows they are working for each other and the shirt and are willing to do whatever it takes to get the result. In what we have seen of them they rarely if ever stray from that formula.
PTW- Oscar Cardozo. Cardozo has been one of the stars in Benfica's current challenge for the Portugese title. He has been at the club since 2007 and scored an impressive 64 goals in 70 games (!) which should be enough to convince that he is not on a good run of luck. Although sometimes strike partner Roque Santa Cruz has gotten more attention in the English speaking media I think Paraguay's offensive output is more dependent on the play of Cardozo.
Slovakia- A modest but able European side, Slovakia will need a rival in the group stage to slip if they are to make it through. The team looks solid in a defense built around Martin Skrtel and has some legitimate spark going forward with Marek Hamsik and Vlad Weiss as attacking midfielders. If the pieces around them take care of the ball and Slovakia collectively run, grind, and tackle, perhaps it is enough. I kind of like this team but I am not sure they have what it takes.
PTW- Marek Hamsik. He has been killing it at Napoli for a few seasons now and I am eager to see him at a big international tournament. In addition to his creativity Hamsik is blessed with a cannon of a shot that can keep defenders on alert as he approaches. He must have at least one big game against either Paraguay or Italy to give Slovakia a shot at passage.
Group F predictions:
1. Paraguay (9)
2. Italy (6)
3. Slovakia (3)
4. New Zealand (0)
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Group C
C is for -amongst other things- Calvin, Cheese, and Croatia.
Group C
England, USA, Slovenia, Algeria
Group C has one borderline elite team and three good, hungry teams looking to make their mark. This might be a good one.
Slovenia- To be honest I don't know much about this squad. I saw parts of their two legs against Russia and was very impressed. They played well and the fact that they knocked off what was a heavily favored Russian squad with world class talent speaks for itself. As an Inter supporter I have caught glimpses of Rene Khrnin but not enough to know his game and I am not even sure he will figure prominently in the Slovenian squad. I know it is not much but the most I can say about this team is they are one of those classic lower end European/South American teams that will be beaten by the better teams if taken seriously but can ruin dreams if not.
PTW- It would be a lie to claim I know enough about any of these guys to say.
England- If the tournament were to start today the only teams ahead of England would be Spain and Brazil. Taking everything into consideration- skill, grit, experience, manager, depth, etc- England look like a legitimate title contender. They blazed through qualification and seem well poised to win this group. If there is one possible danger scenario it may the possibility of a problem in central defense. As of right now I imagine Terry, Ferdinand, and Lescott are the center-halfs and it is not irrational to think fitness concerns could plague the trio. But still that is a long shot. If England do not win group C it will likely be their own fault.
Algeria- Much like Slovenia I am kind of in the dark about the Algerians. I know they played those dramatic two games last month against Egypt to put themselves in at the death. The clips I saw showed gritty and determined players playing their hearts out. This may go against current conventional wisdom but I am not high on the prospects of African football at either club or country level. Africans players are phenomenal, but I will take a national team seriously when they reach a world cup semi-final. Being that South Africa are hosting this might be the year, we will see. Just a quick note: everyone talked about how Algeria defeated the defending two-time champion of Africa to win their berth. Fair enough. Egypt have not appeared in a World Cup since Italy 1990. Just saying.
PTW- See Slovenia.
USA- Living in America it is easy to get swept up in speculation. Some people are ready to declare the US a heavyweight, others are eternal doubters. Personally I see a talented pool of players who have enough experience at the highest levels to be a threat. There is also a certain bit of hunger I think. What makes me a little nervous about the USA is a tactical guilelessness on the part of Bob Bradley. I have rarely if ever seen make a mid-game correction that worked. The other thing is a tendency in past American squads to want to live on previous results. Last summer in the Confed Cup was a great achievement, but let's be honest: the US finished 2-3 and only beat one team better than them (Spain). If they want to go through they need to be focused 100 percent on England, Slovenia, and Algeria. They might know what you did last summer, but none of them care. This might be meaningless, it might not: The US are Terrible in Europe, but do pretty well elsewhere. World Cups 1990 (Italy), 1998 (France), and Germany (2006) saw the US earn a total of 1 (ONE!!!) point in 9 matches. Meanwhile they made it through a true group of death on home soil in 1994 and played respectably in the loss to eventual champion Brazil, and reached the quarter final in Asia 2002. So I think that is a good sign, maybe. They should go through in second place.
PTW- Landon Donovan. For all the divided opinions on Landon he is the one player with unique characteristics on this team. There are plenty of guys that can work and run and tackle, scoring may not be in surplus but they have finishers, but Donovan can change the dynamic of a game with his blend of skills.
Group C prediction:
1. England (7)
2. USA (5)
3. Slovenia (4)
4. Algeria (0)
Group C
England, USA, Slovenia, Algeria
Group C has one borderline elite team and three good, hungry teams looking to make their mark. This might be a good one.
Slovenia- To be honest I don't know much about this squad. I saw parts of their two legs against Russia and was very impressed. They played well and the fact that they knocked off what was a heavily favored Russian squad with world class talent speaks for itself. As an Inter supporter I have caught glimpses of Rene Khrnin but not enough to know his game and I am not even sure he will figure prominently in the Slovenian squad. I know it is not much but the most I can say about this team is they are one of those classic lower end European/South American teams that will be beaten by the better teams if taken seriously but can ruin dreams if not.
PTW- It would be a lie to claim I know enough about any of these guys to say.
England- If the tournament were to start today the only teams ahead of England would be Spain and Brazil. Taking everything into consideration- skill, grit, experience, manager, depth, etc- England look like a legitimate title contender. They blazed through qualification and seem well poised to win this group. If there is one possible danger scenario it may the possibility of a problem in central defense. As of right now I imagine Terry, Ferdinand, and Lescott are the center-halfs and it is not irrational to think fitness concerns could plague the trio. But still that is a long shot. If England do not win group C it will likely be their own fault.
Algeria- Much like Slovenia I am kind of in the dark about the Algerians. I know they played those dramatic two games last month against Egypt to put themselves in at the death. The clips I saw showed gritty and determined players playing their hearts out. This may go against current conventional wisdom but I am not high on the prospects of African football at either club or country level. Africans players are phenomenal, but I will take a national team seriously when they reach a world cup semi-final. Being that South Africa are hosting this might be the year, we will see. Just a quick note: everyone talked about how Algeria defeated the defending two-time champion of Africa to win their berth. Fair enough. Egypt have not appeared in a World Cup since Italy 1990. Just saying.
PTW- See Slovenia.
USA- Living in America it is easy to get swept up in speculation. Some people are ready to declare the US a heavyweight, others are eternal doubters. Personally I see a talented pool of players who have enough experience at the highest levels to be a threat. There is also a certain bit of hunger I think. What makes me a little nervous about the USA is a tactical guilelessness on the part of Bob Bradley. I have rarely if ever seen make a mid-game correction that worked. The other thing is a tendency in past American squads to want to live on previous results. Last summer in the Confed Cup was a great achievement, but let's be honest: the US finished 2-3 and only beat one team better than them (Spain). If they want to go through they need to be focused 100 percent on England, Slovenia, and Algeria. They might know what you did last summer, but none of them care. This might be meaningless, it might not: The US are Terrible in Europe, but do pretty well elsewhere. World Cups 1990 (Italy), 1998 (France), and Germany (2006) saw the US earn a total of 1 (ONE!!!) point in 9 matches. Meanwhile they made it through a true group of death on home soil in 1994 and played respectably in the loss to eventual champion Brazil, and reached the quarter final in Asia 2002. So I think that is a good sign, maybe. They should go through in second place.
PTW- Landon Donovan. For all the divided opinions on Landon he is the one player with unique characteristics on this team. There are plenty of guys that can work and run and tackle, scoring may not be in surplus but they have finishers, but Donovan can change the dynamic of a game with his blend of skills.
Group C prediction:
1. England (7)
2. USA (5)
3. Slovenia (4)
4. Algeria (0)
Friday, December 25, 2009
Group B
B is for Bro Down. It is also for Belgium and Bark. A few other things too.
Here is how I see it playing out in South Africa:
Group B
Argentina, South Korea, Nigeria, Greece
This is a somewhat interesting group. I think the consensus is that the group is made up of a wounded superpower (Argentina) and three good, very solid but not great teams from different corners of the world. I see that but in the end I suspect group B will shake out more or less along traditional lines.
South Korea- Over the last fifteen years or so South Korea has become recognized as one of the better Asian squads. Other people give that more weight than I do, but they are not a minnow. Still, an inspection of past performance and the makeup of the current team make them look like the weakest team in group B. Their only notable World Cup campaign came in 2002 and was so repulsively reliant on blatant FIFA Favors that I can not take it seriously. They went 1-1-1 in a moderate group in 2006 and their best recent showing in a very modest confed was third place in 2007. As far as the squad they feature Ji-Sung Park, a constant presence in the Manchester United line up, but other than that it is comprised of journeyman and domestic based players. There is nothing in this team that suggests it will shine in the group phase.
PTW: Ji-Sung Park. He has played in big games and won important trophies (his Champions League flop last spring is probably an aberration) and will not wilt on the big stage. He is also industrious and hardworking and can have the kind of pace to create something.
Nigeria- Their appearance in this WC is not a fluke, Nigeria have a very respectable record over the last two decades at senior and Olympic level. They are what you would expect from a solid African team: powerful and hardworking. This squad also contains some good skill players with important experience at the height of European competition. Although I think there are some soft spots, particularly in the wide areas of the field, a passage to the round of 16 is very much a possibility.
PTW: Jon Mikel Obi. If not for the heavyweights he shares the Chelsea midfield with, this guy would be a superstar already at 22. I think he is the player to watch because he can anchor a midfield and destroy oncoming attacks, scoop the ball and start the play the other way. Very well rounded and very dangerous. His one drawback is an occasional lack of discipline and that kind of thing can be disastrous with hair trigger referees and the 3 game season that is the group stage.
Argentina- A true enigma, it can be said they are the South American mirror image of France going into this tournament. This team is overloaded with talent (although most notably up front, they have players who start on elite European clubs at every position) but burdened by a manager who is more or less out of his mind and not very good at coaching. Whereas France must deal with a guy everyone agrees is a kook, the overwhelming larger-than-life persona of Maradona makes it difficult to shrug him off. It will be up to a veteran presence in the squad (someone like Veron or Zanetti, if they are called to South Africa) to make his teammates understand the shirt is more important than anything else and they have to win despite Maradona's insanity.
PTW: Lionel Messi is the best player in the world and it would be hard to pick anyone else. Even if I wanted to Maradona's inexplicable team selections put all but him and captain Javier Mascherano's presence in doubt. Messi's shortcomings with the national team are way overblown and really amount to 4 qualifying matches. He impressed at Copa America 2007, played well early in qualifying, and destroyed the Olympic tournament. He has excelled in the big games at club level and knows this may be his moment to cement his place as one of the games greats. I suspect a solid performance by Messi will carry Argentina far.
Greece- Not a European superpower but a very solid team. Qualifying through UEFA is never easy and the Grecians (*) won an impressive play-off against the Ukraine. Although they have strayed from this formula a bit recently the Greek MO has been discipline, tight marking, defense, and capitalizing on the chances they get. It won them a Euro in 2004, another appearance in 2008, and a trip to South Africa. That they are managed by a master in Otto Rehhagel is perhaps their best asset. He has been pulling the strings for a long time and the Greeks know to listen to him. I see them battling Nigeria for second in the group and actually like their chances quite a bit. They play the patient, sober (boring?) game that might be needed to knock off what is perhaps a better Nigerian team. Nigeria are strong and domineering, but the Greeks may well be able to pick them off in the middle of the park and counterattack. That is going to be the game to watch in group B.
PTW: This really is a bland, generic, faceless squad so I am going to pick Otto. It is in his hands.
My group prediction:
1. Argentina (7)
2. Greece (5)
3. Nigeria (4)
4. South Korea (1)
Here is how I see it playing out in South Africa:
Group B
Argentina, South Korea, Nigeria, Greece
This is a somewhat interesting group. I think the consensus is that the group is made up of a wounded superpower (Argentina) and three good, very solid but not great teams from different corners of the world. I see that but in the end I suspect group B will shake out more or less along traditional lines.
South Korea- Over the last fifteen years or so South Korea has become recognized as one of the better Asian squads. Other people give that more weight than I do, but they are not a minnow. Still, an inspection of past performance and the makeup of the current team make them look like the weakest team in group B. Their only notable World Cup campaign came in 2002 and was so repulsively reliant on blatant FIFA Favors that I can not take it seriously. They went 1-1-1 in a moderate group in 2006 and their best recent showing in a very modest confed was third place in 2007. As far as the squad they feature Ji-Sung Park, a constant presence in the Manchester United line up, but other than that it is comprised of journeyman and domestic based players. There is nothing in this team that suggests it will shine in the group phase.
PTW: Ji-Sung Park. He has played in big games and won important trophies (his Champions League flop last spring is probably an aberration) and will not wilt on the big stage. He is also industrious and hardworking and can have the kind of pace to create something.
Nigeria- Their appearance in this WC is not a fluke, Nigeria have a very respectable record over the last two decades at senior and Olympic level. They are what you would expect from a solid African team: powerful and hardworking. This squad also contains some good skill players with important experience at the height of European competition. Although I think there are some soft spots, particularly in the wide areas of the field, a passage to the round of 16 is very much a possibility.
PTW: Jon Mikel Obi. If not for the heavyweights he shares the Chelsea midfield with, this guy would be a superstar already at 22. I think he is the player to watch because he can anchor a midfield and destroy oncoming attacks, scoop the ball and start the play the other way. Very well rounded and very dangerous. His one drawback is an occasional lack of discipline and that kind of thing can be disastrous with hair trigger referees and the 3 game season that is the group stage.
Argentina- A true enigma, it can be said they are the South American mirror image of France going into this tournament. This team is overloaded with talent (although most notably up front, they have players who start on elite European clubs at every position) but burdened by a manager who is more or less out of his mind and not very good at coaching. Whereas France must deal with a guy everyone agrees is a kook, the overwhelming larger-than-life persona of Maradona makes it difficult to shrug him off. It will be up to a veteran presence in the squad (someone like Veron or Zanetti, if they are called to South Africa) to make his teammates understand the shirt is more important than anything else and they have to win despite Maradona's insanity.
PTW: Lionel Messi is the best player in the world and it would be hard to pick anyone else. Even if I wanted to Maradona's inexplicable team selections put all but him and captain Javier Mascherano's presence in doubt. Messi's shortcomings with the national team are way overblown and really amount to 4 qualifying matches. He impressed at Copa America 2007, played well early in qualifying, and destroyed the Olympic tournament. He has excelled in the big games at club level and knows this may be his moment to cement his place as one of the games greats. I suspect a solid performance by Messi will carry Argentina far.
Greece- Not a European superpower but a very solid team. Qualifying through UEFA is never easy and the Grecians (*) won an impressive play-off against the Ukraine. Although they have strayed from this formula a bit recently the Greek MO has been discipline, tight marking, defense, and capitalizing on the chances they get. It won them a Euro in 2004, another appearance in 2008, and a trip to South Africa. That they are managed by a master in Otto Rehhagel is perhaps their best asset. He has been pulling the strings for a long time and the Greeks know to listen to him. I see them battling Nigeria for second in the group and actually like their chances quite a bit. They play the patient, sober (boring?) game that might be needed to knock off what is perhaps a better Nigerian team. Nigeria are strong and domineering, but the Greeks may well be able to pick them off in the middle of the park and counterattack. That is going to be the game to watch in group B.
PTW: This really is a bland, generic, faceless squad so I am going to pick Otto. It is in his hands.
My group prediction:
1. Argentina (7)
2. Greece (5)
3. Nigeria (4)
4. South Korea (1)
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