It All Comes Down to This

Saturday was an emotional roller coaster for Pitch Itchy. On line at Nevada Smith's getting more and more nervous as kick-off time of the Argentina-Peru match approached and we only advanced a few feet in an hour, I was pretty sure it was going to end poorly. Then a friend of a friend got a bar in Brooklyn to pay per view the game and there was a mad scramble over the W-burg bridge and into Green Point. Got there just in time for kick off. Awesome stuff.

The game itself was extremely trying as well. Argentina dominated possession, run of play, opportunities, etc but it was scoreless into the break. After Higuain's goal they took their foot of the gas and just when it looked like they were going to get away with Peru got the equalizer. I was still descending to progressively darker levels of depression when out of nowhere Martin Palermo (!?) slotted the game-winner home. Then the night got really weird/good/bad/memorable. Maybe when you are older we can have a talk about it.

Anyway with Uruguay's victory in Quito this Wednesday's edition of the Battle of the River Plate takes on monumental importance. Because people are miserable and it is the nature of South America (in soccer yes but you can say that about many aspects of life) the conspiracy theorists are busy suggesting there is an agreement between Argentina and Uruguay. This is ridiculous for a bunch of reasons. The easiest way to dispel this myth is by stating the obvious: a draw does not change either team's fate, it all depends on the outcome of Ecuador-Chile which will play at the same time. Argentina have 25 points, Uruguay sit at 24, and Ecuador are right behind them with 23. A draw would leave Uruguay at the mercy of Chile. Are they really going to sign for a draw and hope a team that has already qualified and has nothing to play for goes out and beats an Ecuadoran side fighting for its life? Probably not. Uruguay and Argentina both hold the tiebreaker over Ecuador so if Argentina wins and there is a draw in Santiago, Urguay still go through to the play-off. If there is a draw in Montevideo and Ecuador win, Argentina goes straight to South Africa and Ecuador gets the 4th place team from Concacaf. There are just too many unkowns for these teams to agree a draw.

I thought Argentina's line-up was right for the match on Saturday, although not perfect. So it was not too much of a bummer to learn it will be significantly tweaked for Wednesday. Diego Maradona has had a well chronicled series of debacles as the national team manager and his team selection has left a lot to be desired but right now it looks like he has finally gotten it right. The preliminary line-up appears to be:

Higuain Messi

Lucho Gonzalez Veron Mascherano Jonas

Heinze Schiavi Otamendi Pareja

Romero

This is a more defensive formation than what was really a 3-5-2 against Peru, and for good reason. Uruguay know the only way to ensure they live to see another day is to attack, and they will be willing to do so at home. It is prudent to shore up the side in the back and be patient. Peru allowed Argentina 2/3 of the field essentially free and the formation on Saturday was able to exploit that, but it will be much different in the final match. This line-up is better suited to win balls and battles in the middle of the park. Although I really liked Aimar's performance in Buenos Aires and admit he is a better playmaker than Veron at this point in their careers, Veron's physical attributes and ability to win tackles makes him a better option. A similar argument can be made for the inclusion of Lucho Gonzalez in place of Di Maria (who in my opinion was exceptional against Peru). Lucho is underrated in his ability to do the dirty work sometimes required to win. He is a phenomenal playmaking midfielder but can do the grunt work when asked, and in a clasico against Uruguay that is indispensable. The two guys up front are capable of making the difference in a one-on-one situation and also have the speed to make the counter-strike a realistic threat. All in all I like the line-up as it is taking shape. This will be a classic.

Tough Times

Turns out I was fortunate not to watch the Argentina-Brazil game live. What a buzzkiller for Labor Day Weekend. I really expected Argentina to come up with a victory and the 3-1 loss stings. The one thing that made me nervous going in was the inexperience of the central defense and that was what cost them. 2 set piece goals in the first half which are attributable to shoddy marking changed the shape of the game.

It is unfair to say the outcome would have been different under the leadership of another manager but it is undeniable that Maradona has hurt this team more than he has helped. With this latest result he has 2 wins and 3 losses in qualifying, a dismal record, and that includes an unforgettable humiliation in La Paz and this latest sour defeat to Brazil at home. At times it really seems like he doesn't understand what a national team manager does at the elite level. Almost like he thinks if he picks 11 players he likes and pats them on the back they can go out and beat anyone because the mighty Maradona believes in them. That is not the way it works. They were beaten by a Brazilian team that has continuity and identity. On top of that they had efficient execution of set pieces and clearly established ideas of how to play the game. Up against 11 players who were just out there to play, depending on the emotional charge of wearing the national team shirt to carry them through, the Brazilian superiority was never in question.

In less than 24 hours Argentina will play what is now the biggest game of the campaign to date, away to Paraguay. For all the stumbles of the Maradona era a win in Asuncion would put them within striking distance of a spot in South Africa. I hope the days since the defeat in Rosario were enough to study the opponent, fix what was wrong, and prepare for this match. Four changes have been made to the squad that started Saturday's game. Tomorrow night Argentina's 11 will be:

Sergio Romero (in for Andujar)

Emiliano Papa (for Otamendi), Heinze, Dominguez, Zanetti

Gago (for Maxi Rodriguez), Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Aguero (for Tevez)


I am hoping for the best but to be candid this line-up screams out wait and see. Papa is a good player who can perform at this level but sliding Heinze into central defense to make room for him might not be such an awesome idea. His adventures in that alternate position are well chronicled. This incarnation of the midfield I think will do well. If there was a bright spot on Saturday it was Jesus Datolo, and with Gago in for Maxi I think there is some balance in the middle. Aguero for Tevez is not exactly like for like but it does not give the attack a radically different identity. That an offense featuring those two players plus Lionel Messi has only mustered three goals in the last four competitive games should send up red flags. It is crying out for something new. This would be a great place to try Messi alongside a true 9, either Milito or Lopez, like many have been suggesting for months.

On the other side of the equation there is cause for concern as well. Although Paraguay have looked wobbly in the last several qualifying matches they are still in a commanding position vis-a-vis Argentina. Tata Martino is a very good manager and he knows that a draw is a very comfortable result for his side. He also knows Argentina are coming in desperate and with something to prove. Given this I am sure he has spent the last few days building a safe and sturdy if boring counter-attacking game plan.

I am hoping for the best but doing so with the unfamiliar feeling that Argentina don't walk on the field with the inherent advantage I have come to expect.

The Clasico of Clasicos

It is almost here. Tomorrow night, Argentina vs. Brazil. This is probably my favorite match up ever. I have a lot of memories of the South American clasico. Some good, some bad, but it is always a great experience. Unfortunately I am going to be traveling and will be relegated to streaming the game if anything.

This particular edition has a lot of interesting subplots. Maradona vs. Dunga 19 years after the famous game from Italia 90, Messi vs. Kaka, the importance it has re WCQ, the change of venue to Rosario, the peculiar mix of players Maradona has called into the squad, the return of Adriano to the Brazilian national team.

I don't think the Brazilian team sheet has been released yet but Argentina will line up in a 4-4-2:

Andjuar

Heinze, Otamendi, Seba Dominguez, Zanetti

Maxi Rodriguez, Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Tevez


There are a few question marks with this formation but all in all I think if the players execute Argentina will be fine. In central defense are two players who have never played club football in Europe and have 2 caps between them. That is the bad. The good is that they make up the tandem at Velez Sarsfield, the defending Argentine champions, and were responsible for the league's lowest goals against last term. To be fair Maradona called Otamendi into the squad early on and raised some eyebrows but had his vision vindicated when he came to dominate the first division last year. With Demichelis injured and Coloccini in poor form (he probably shouldn't have even been called to the squad in my opinion) Maradona didn't have many other choices but going with such a green central defense still makes me a bit nervous.

The injury to Jonas Gutierrez is more of a blow than many people thing. In the game in Brazil he was key in shutting down Maicon. This Brazilian team uses the attacking right-back as a key to their offense and Jonas is the perfect player to neutralize that. The job will now fall to Maxi Rodriguez who is a good player but not as specialized in that area.

I continue to think the national team needs a number 9 up front and the Messi-Tevez combo does not strike me as the best option when there are guys like Milito and Licha Lopez to choose from. Still, those two are more than capable of changing a game in flash and over the course of 90 minutes I suspect they will have chance to do so. What I like in this set up is the more narrow look of the team going forward may allow for more coherent linkage between Veron, who will be the 10, and the strikers. In the 4-3-3 they used against Colombia the team was spread to thin for the Veron-Messi partnership to be much of a threat and the opposing defenders snuffed out any danger far from goal.

I like Argentina's options of the bench but Brazil has probably as many weapons to choose from. In addition I think Dunga is a very, very good in-game manager and despite all of Maradona's experience and knowledge he is still new to coaching. For Argentina to win it is imperative that the players on the field beat their men one on one.

My prediction is Argentina 2-0 Brazil.

Seperation Saturday

Busy weekend on the qualies front. Japan was the first in for the World Cup, good job. They were joined later in the day by South Korea (who I hate), Australia, and Holland. England are on the version and just need a win against Andorra in midweek. Here are some thoughts:

The US fell behind against Honduras and fought back and earned a 2-1 win. I was still not super impressed with this team but they did what they had to and ground out a result. Also, the Landon Donovan pre-penalty production is embarrassing and really needs to stop. In Costa Rica there was so much to criticize I sort of forgot about it, but really do you need to go through those theatrics when you are 3-0 down in the 89th minute? I wonder if he did that before he took penalty kicks at Bayern... oh wait, nevermind. Loser.

I didn't see the Mexico game but by all accounts they were dominated by El Salvador and now sit fifth out of six. It is far from over as Mexico have the majority of their games at home and one away to T&T, but no one expected Mexico to be in such bad shape at this point. Maybe it wasn't all SGE's fault after all. The perception in a lot of places is that Mexico will be in South Africa even if they have to win a play-off against a team from conmebol. I wouldn't be so quick to make that assumption. The team currently sitting in the play-off spot is Uruguay and despite suffering a humiliating 4-0 thumping at the hands of Brazil in Montevideo over the weekend at this moment I would take Uruguay over Mexico in 2-leg play-off. We will see.

Argentina played poorly and were lucky to get a 1-0 result over Colombia. The solid debut of Andujar in goal and a rejuvenated JS Veron providing the odd spark in attack were the only real positives. The team selection and formation were suspect and after 3 competitive matches in charge Diego is an okay 2-1 with a not-s0-awesome goal differential of zero (6 for 6 against). Not off to the start many envisioned. The 3-man backline was overwhelmed (which is not a surprise) and he had to bring on Zanetti to act as a hybrid midfielder/right-back in the second half. The glut of three small, quick strikers didn't produce the myriad chances it did against Venezuela, but really why would it? Jonas was invisible on the flank. I expect a radically different approach for their midweek match in Quito. Mascherano will miss the game due to suspension. Aguero was taken off in the 40th with an injury, but even if it is not serious I expect a different configuration in attack which may leave him on the bench. Heinze played shockingly and really doesn't deserve to start but given the lack of another proven left back in the pool of players called up he might. Still, 3 points is 3 points and Argentina opened up a gap between them and chasing Uruguay. They are on the verge of clinching while Colombia's hopes are dwindling.

Maradona's List for WCQ

Diego Maradona has released the list of players for Argentina's upcoming qualifiers against Colombia and Ecuador. A few strange decisions were made by El Diez. Here is what I didn't think was awesome:

1, The inclusion of 2 players, GK Federico Vilar and MF Cristian Gimenez currently playing at Mexican clubs. Considering the options available playing at elite European clubs, and the wealth of options from the domestic league which is clearly stronger than Mexico's, this is confusing. Who knows if this pair will see time in the two games or not. Gimenez probably has a better shot as Vilar looks to be the third choice keeper behind JP Carrizo and Mariano Andujar. Not a huge deal, but I think the two spots could have been used better.

2, Rolfe Montenegro and JS Veron are in the squad again. These guys had great moments in their careers, particularly Veron, but their prime is clearly in the past. It would be one thing to bring them in for experience and leadership in a young, naive squad. But that is not the case here.

3, The list does not include an elite 10 in the classic sense. Since his falling out with Riquelme I have thought Maradona better off without him and I am okay with this aspect of the roster. Without replacing Riquelme I am guessing Maradona will come out in a 4-3-3 which I think maximizes the strengths of this group.

4, The strikers are: Messi, Kun Aguero, Tevez, Diego Milito, Licha Lopez, and Gonzalo Bergessio. It is hard to argue with the first four of these. Argentina are overwhelmed with talent at the striker position. There are names left off the list that could start at most other national teams. What caught my eye was the inclusion of Gonzalo Bergessio at the expense of Real Madrid's Gonzalo Higuain. Higuain is 5th on the goal scoring table in La Liga, leading a team packed with superstars having scored 20 league goals. And although Lopez deserves his spot on the team I think Mauro Zarate merits a look in the near future.

A few surprises but all in all a pretty good list. I love international football and look forward to these games.
-AM