The Premiership Begins

I wanted to do an extensive post previewing and predicting the English season. It was going to be called Prem 'Round the Bend which I thought was pretty clever. But I kept putting it off and things started changing and next thing you know the season is only a couple of days away. So here is a very modest, very scaled back version of that post. Really just some rough predictions and thoughts.



At The Top-

This summer saw a lot of changes at the big 4, perhaps enough to reshape the landscape. At the beginning of the summer I felt like the 2009-10 season might be Liverpool's time, but since then they have lost the crucial Xabi Alonso as well as Arbeloa and have not made any significant signings. They still have a top 4 squad but if the transfer window closes and LFC's roster remains what it is today it will be a very, very unlikely they challenge for the title.



Arsenal were miles behind the other b4 teams last season and the transactions they have made don't seem to have improved them too much. Toure out, Vermalean in at the back might not be a huge drop off, we will see. Adebayor bolting for Manchester City is something they can deal with if one of their arsenal (pun def intended, bro) or youngsters pick up the slack, something that is very possible. They have a squad with plenty of firepower and Wenger is an elite manager, but for me this squad still lacks two things: a wordclass ball-winning midfielder and a bit of experience. On any given day they will look like the best team in the league but I see Arsenal leaving points on the field in seemingly insignificant matches that will prevent them from winning the Prem.



How do you recover from losing Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez? I don't know, but my best guess does not involve signing Antonio Valencia (a winger who scored 6 goals last season) the uber-fragile Michael Owen and Gabriel Obertan (a promising player yes, but not a prodigy. He couldn't crack the first team at Bordeaux at 20 years old, does he belong at United? In 69 games he has 4 career goals). Add to that the injuries and surprisingly shaky form at the goalkeeper position and it looks like a realistic possibility United's streak will stop at 3. The one solid area of this team is the backline. Vidic-Ferdinand remains, for me at least, the best center back partnership in the league.



The pattern here is that the summer of 2009 saw everyone get worse...except Chelsea. In late May I would not have picked them to be the next champions but things seem to be lining up nicely for them. The one major move they made was to bring in a quality winger in Yuri Zhirkov who gives them something more. But for the most part this is the same squad they have had for some time now. It is deep and talented. Carlo Ancelotti is a wild card as manager. Everyone has an opinion but the truth is that he has been tremendously successful in Italy and never worked abroad until now. There is no way of knowing how it will go. They were already an elite team and with a new manager, one good signing, and the return of Joe Cole I think they will be lifting the trophy next spring. BUT... more because their rivals atrophied as the balance of power shifted to Spain and they were able to hold onto their big guns than anything else.





Best of the Rest-

Everton are my pick for Best of (the best) the Rest. Even ravaged by the most incredible series of injuries they hung in last season and finished a very respectable fifth and managed to reach the FA Cup final. They go into this season rested and refreshed with most of the squad in tact and the same steady hand on the touchline in David Moyes. It is tough to know how much this will matter, but Everton seem to be in better shape than their direct competitors when it comes to internationals. They will be losing their share of players at certain times but I think they are lucky to have guys who for some reason don't figure into their national teams' plans like Mikel Arteta or whose national teams have little to play for at the moment like Pienaar and Cahill. From top to bottom they look to be the best team outside the traditional big 4. I could even see them knocking off Arsenal, maybe.



Manchester City is taking the right steps but until they prove otherwise they are just a collection of mercenaries. There really isn't much more to write than that.



Everyone, Pitch Itchy very much included, likes Aston Villa. They do it the right way and have much to admire. They are likely to be in the top third of the table at the end of the season but I don't see them cracking the CL spots this season, much for the same reasons as last year. Depth. There just aren't enough first team calibre players at Villa to survive the grueling English season. They will give the big boys a scare from time to time but that is it.





Survival-

The three promoted sides are always candidates for the drop and this year is no exception. To those three I will add Portsmouth who have been in an intriguing downward spiral the last 24 months or so (and, strangely, captured in FA Cup during that time).



Until very recently I would have put Hull City in the thick of the danger zone but right now I am not so sure. They only stayed up last season but they narrowest of margins and had what can only be described as a meager attack. Throughout the summer Hull City have chased strikers hoping to find a way to patch up the holes before kicking off the new campaign. They lost out on several targets but in the last week got Jozy Altidore on loan from Villarreal and Alvaro Negredo from Real Madrid. These guys should give Hull what they lacked last season up front and I think that will be enough to finish 17th or better.


Other Odds and Ends-
I think West Ham will do better than Sunderland.

Hugo Rodallega at Wigan is a player to watch.

The top scorer will finish with at least 25 goals.