Whoa

I (thankfully) wasn't able to get out of work early to watch today's Champions League games. I kept tabs on both games and was dismayed to see Inter blow two leads and then totally collapse and all but say goodbye to the idea of defending their crown. I don't even want to watch the highlights let alone the replay. 5-2 is a monstrous deficit to overturn. They would need at least 4 goals in the second leg to go through. Boo. I'd thought Real Madrid would win comfortably but in a blow out. They got out to an early lead and essentially put this one away in the first leg. 4-0 and from all I read they absolutely dominated. I saw still shots of both Crouch yellows and they seemed justified. That Harry Redknapp came out and said he deserved to be sent off cements it for me. The margin in this one may allow Mou to rest some key players when they go the White Hart Lane, something crucial since they have a grueling end of the season coming up. Tomorrow: Chelsea vs. Manchester United- I know Chelsea won their most recent league meeting but these two clubs feel worlds apart to me. When I look at Chelsea I see a collection of well paid superstars with a median age dangerously close to retirement. Yes they win a lot of games and on any given day can beat nearly any opponent. But they have turned in disapointing performances with shocking frequency. And then there is United, a side with markedly less star-power than it has had in recent years yet they continue to plug ahead and tally win after win after win. Currently alive on three fronts and in the driver's seat to claim a record 19th first division English title. I see a draw at Stamford Bridge tomorrow and then Manchester United winning in the return leg to go through to the semi-final. 1-1. Barcelona vs. Shaktar Donetsk- Despite Pep Guardiola's unconvincing press conference in which he said for the first time he didn't like what he saw and that he had a bad feeling about this I think the Spanish champions will be back in the CL semi-final for the third consecutive year. Shaktar is a team that play good football, use their fullbacks, and move the ball up the park with skilled passing. This has enabled them to be a force in the Ukraine and reach the final 8 in Europe. But against Barcelona, particularly at the Camp Nou, they have a critical choice to make. When the big fish is out of the little pond and fighting for it's life will it stick to its guns, or acknowledge reality and hunker down in a defensive posture? I know what I would do. As much as it might wound egos if Shaktar attempt to move the ball up the pitch from the back tomorrow Barcelona will pick them off and end the tie within a half hour. The one ray of hope for the Ukrainians is that Pep's Barsa have never won a knock-out stage Champions League game away from Cataluna. This should be even more incentive to park the bus, hang on for dear life, and live to fight another day back home. That said, I see Barcelona 3-0 winners tomorrow.

Spurs Stunner and Manana

So I was wrong about the Milan Spurs game. Tottenham got an immensely valuable away win in the first leg, 1-0. I only saw highlights but it looks like they deserved the victory from Peter Crouch's goal. Also, Reno Gattuso, wtf bro... bad move. Next time you do that, don't do that.

Raul scored on his return to Spain to salvage a 1-1 draw for Schalke. This gives them a pretty good scenario going back to Germany. If Valencia had a little more experience in the squad they might have a shot at turning it around because an away goal might be all they need, but I kind of get the sense this is as far as they will get. Considering they offloaded their two best players in the summer it is not bad at all.

Tomorrow we will see the first of the rematch ties, Arsenal versus Barcelona. It has been said over and over: these teams play similar styles. Barcelona got the best of the Gunners in last year's 1/4finals, and I believe the same will happen this time. It is true the these teams' games mirror each other, but Barcelona are better in every aspect and probably every position. Both teams thrive in possession but Barcelona are far superior in pressure and recovery. What will Arsenal do when they don't have the ball for long stretches at a time? And how will they get it back without conceding dangerous free kicks? All things being equal I would say a nil draw at the Emirates and a multi goal margin in the Camp Nou, but with Samir Nasri likely to miss the first leg, the sting of the 1-1 in Gijon at the weekend, and the memories of last spring at play I think Barcelona might win in London.

The Roma-Shaktar tie is intriguing. Mostly because Roma are wildly unpredictable and Shaktar are virtually unknown to me. When Roma are on their game they can hold their own with the elite clubs in Europe, but they are not on their game consistently enough to be considered one of those clubs. Shaktar won their group and have a difficult ground for foreigners to win at. I suspect a result away will be even more of an advantage than usual in this one.

Barcelona Win Again

For the last few weeks the jealousy and frustration and general how can this be happening of the Real Madrid universe has manifested itself in anti-Barcelona campaign. When The Greasy One was given a two match ban for breaking an opponents nose via elbow his teammates and and people from Real Madrid's staff went insane, demanding (in Jorge Valdano's words) that the disciplinary committee take into account whether or not the player being sanctioned plays attractive football before issuing a ban. Sergio Ramos and others were indignant at the ban because and noted that Lionel Messi, Barcelona's star and the best player in the world, once elbowed someone too. I am not making this up. As almost an asterisk or after thought the Real partisans admitted he didn't do damage to the other player. That is the one small difference between the two incidents. Which is kind of like saying if two people get drunk in a bar and one drives home while the other walks a DUI is unfair because they were both drunk.

The other strand of Barcelona hating is an insistence that Spanish referees are bent on pushing them over the top. This campaign has gained a lot of steam in the pro-Real Madrid media, particularly the paper/webiste As. (I actually like a lot of what As does, but their bias on this is annoying). When a quick free kick pass to Pedro resulted in the go-ahead and eventual game-winning goal against Sporting, there was an uproar about offside. To be fair it was a close call, but replay showed it was at best a tie and Pedro was probably onside. He was also more than 50 yards from goal at the time. As ran a still image showing him ahead of the Sporting defenders by about half a yard. What the supposed proof of favoritism ignored was that the ball was already in the air. This is campaign is particularly irritating considering it is in support of Real Madrid, a club so morally corrupt it hired a retired official as a liaison to referees and didn't even hide it.

So all this leads me to say I was very pleased watching Barcelona's 2-0 win today over Getafe and am a little curious how the Madridista outlets will play it. Barcelona's squad was missing several key players like Carles Puyol and Dani Alves and played Iniesta up front initially instead of in midfield. They deservedly went down a man in the 25th when Pique was sent off, making them play on 10 men for over an hour. Marquez was also sent off in a play that resulted in a Getafe spot-shot and their only goal. Barcelona dominated the match start to finish and if Keita was a little less erratic it would have been 4-0. Truly masterful, but more important the calls went against Barcelona and they did not blink. I am curious how this game will play in the capital.

Panic in Florence

Fiorentina have taken Barcelona's next-big-thing-but-not-quite-yet Keirrison on loan. La Viola's first choice target was Antonio Cassano but Sampdoria's asking price was too high and with the window slamming shut in the near future they pulled the trigger on the Brazilian. Fiorentina are in a position where they had to do something to shore up their attack after the Adrian Mutu debacle. Although Fiorentina advanced through a reasonably competitive group in the Champions League they are languishing in the middle of the Serie A table, 7 points out of qualifying for next year's competition. That they are alive on three fronts (league, Europe, and copa) means their squad will be taxed heavily in the coming months. They needed add an attacking player if they want to succeed but I am not sure this was the right move.

Kierrison was signed from Palmeiras last summer for around 20 million Euros and Barcelona immediately shipped him off to Benfica to gain European experience. That experiment was a flop as he look poor on the rare occasion he got some playing time. If a guy can not win a starting place over guys like Javier Saviola and Oscar Cardozo (solid players but not elite figures) what makes Fiorentina think he can thrive in the more demanding Serie A? He will probably be on the bench behind Jovetic and Gilardino most of the time but the number of fixtures means he will get chances. I really don't expect this to be the signing that pushes Fiorentina over the top. From Kierrison's point of view it could be said this is a fresh start, a second chance to justify the hype and transfer fee of last summer. He is still very young. And while it would be tempting to say it is make or break time, the truth is that you can get many, many chances. Ricardo Quaresma has flopped in 3 of the biggest leagues in Europe and still gets mentioned as a possible target by reasonably successful clubs.

The Shape of Spain

It is impossible to say for sure but I have a feeling when the winner of the Spanish league is crowned in the spring we will look back on this weekend as a pivotal moment. The top two teams (and to be honest it is a two horse race) had critical games. They both suffered disappointing and maybe embarrassing Champs League losses at home during the week, both were coming off deflating league performances from the previous week, both were trying to shake off the lingering effects of the "virus FIFA" from the international break, and both were up against teams near the bottom of the table.

One showed up and the other didn't. Real Madrid flopped on their visit to Sporting Gijon and got a meager nil draw. It is true they were without certain players like Gonzalo Higuain but the most expensive roster in the history of professional sports should be able to put at least one goal past the just-happy-to-be-here crew from Gijon. On the other hand Barcelona bounced back from two underwhelming results and absolutely plastered Real Zaragoza 6-1 in the Nou Camp. The Zaragoza goal was the product of yet another mental lapse in the Barca defense which has been all too common this season but aside from that it was really a masterful performance. As it stands now Barcelona have only a 3 point lead on Madrid but considering how good they are Real Madrid may not be able to afford falling back any further.

Champions Group

After posting about how unfair it would be for Inter to draw a heavyweight despite winning Serie A they got put in a group with Barcelona. Good work UEFA. This group is the only one of the 8 to be comprised entirely of current champions as Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev are the current title holders in Russia and the Ukraine respectively. Sourness over not being a 1 seed aside I don't think this group is that bad for Inter. The two lower seeds are not exactly giant killers and they will not be playing away at either place late in the year when the temperature and weather can be a factor. Also, the second Barca game, the one at Camp Nou, is on the Tuesday before Barcelona's superclasico against Real Madrid. If things break Inter's way (Barca has sewn up a spot in the round of 16, they are head to head with RM, there is pressure to win that game, etc) it is conceivable they don't get the full force of Barcelona's A-team on their visit to Cataluna. We will see.

Et Tu, Eto'o?

The Samuel Eto'o saga drags on and gets a little weirder. After the deal with Inter stalled there appears to be an attempt by AC Milan to lure Eto'o to the other side of the San Siro. I am not at all surprised that Eto'o has made exorbitant demands, reportedly 10 million a season plus a 15 million dollar commission on the transfer, because I have a distinct feeling he has no interest in playing in Italy. That is probably more than Inter thinks he is worth and I imagine enough to negate the Ibra swap. It is very likely not worth it for AC Milan either but having lost Kaka and being a squad with a debilitating high average age they may be in a position where they feel they have to do something. I still think he is unlikely to be in Serie A but AC makes slightly more sense than Inter.

And how weird were Pep's comments about the whole thing? That Eto'o needs to leave but not for footballing reasons... way to burn a bridge. How awkward will it be if he is in the Barca squad to start the season?

On the other side of the equation I can not imagine Inter let Ibrahimovic play the second half of their friendly vs Club America yesterday if a deal with Barcelona really was wrapped up. For a guy with a prickly nature like Ibra he seemed incredibly happy to be out on the field and looked very comfortable. Maybe it was a last hurrah type thing, who knows. Despite what he said about it being time to move on his inclusion in the squad shores up my belief the Inter-Barcelona deal will not happen.

Pep Discloses 10 of 11 for CL Final

Pep Guardiola has confirmed all but one of the players that will start the final in Rome next week. The line-up assumes Henry and Iniesta will be fit. It also shows the strain Barcelona is under with the Marquez in jury and suspensions of Abidal and Alves. The tentative formation is:

Henry, Eto'o, Messi

Iniesta, Busquets, Xavi

_____, Pique, Toure, Puyol

Valdez

For the leftback spot left vacant by Abidal's red card in London there are three possible replacements: Martin Caceres, Seydou Keita, and Sylvinho. Of these I would say Sylvinho is the best options but according to the Spanish press it is Keita who is the most likely. Sylvinho may be old and a step slower than at his peak but he is solid and experienced and can always be counted on to use his head. Keita, in addition to being an MF asked to play out of position, has often showed lapses of judgement this season. Those kind of mental mistakes can not happen if Barca want to beat United. Caceres is a work in progress and really not ready for prime time.

Seeing Pep's intended formation brings 3 things to mind:

1. Do you really want to show your cards, a whole week in advance? There is a reason Ferguson has not followed suit. Leading up to the biggest game of the season, is it wise to give the opponent a chance to prepare and game plan like that? Perhaps this lineup is not as done a deal as is being reported?

2. It leaves the midfield a little exposed. Is it realistic to expect Sergio Busquets to do all the laboring? The Barcelona midfield's defensive responsibilities are usually not an issue because Toure is superb at running and doing the work necessary, and because they almost always have the lion's share of possession, keeping that work at a level manageable for one elite player. Against United that is not a certainty, and with some vulnerabilities in the Barca defense United can be expected to commit bodies forward and attack the space in the center of the park.

3. Puyol for Alves and one of the three mentioned above for Abidal remove an important dimension from the Barcelona attack. Very, very few teams can count on the movement up the flank Barca get from Alves and his set piece skills will be missed. But this may be a blessing in disguise. Over the two legs of the semi-final Alves routinely advanced deep into Chelsea territory. From there he would swing in crosses, the majority of which were harmlessly cleared away by John Terry. Terry and Chelsea were superior in the air to Barcelona. Vidic and Ferdinand will be as well. The idea of bombing down the touch line then swinging in a cross is a loser in the CL final. Not having this weapon may force Barca to improvise, and it could pay off. The times this season when Barcelona have attacked up the middle they have been successful. Just one example of this is Messi coming off the wing and playing in the center of the park against Real Madrid. The shift sealed the fate of that game, and the league. Reliance on Alves driving and crossing also allowed defenses to contract and set themselves. A quicker more direct attack may expose some holes and create spaces.

The final is just about a week away. I am more excited for this one than I have been in a long time.