Whoa

I (thankfully) wasn't able to get out of work early to watch today's Champions League games. I kept tabs on both games and was dismayed to see Inter blow two leads and then totally collapse and all but say goodbye to the idea of defending their crown. I don't even want to watch the highlights let alone the replay. 5-2 is a monstrous deficit to overturn. They would need at least 4 goals in the second leg to go through. Boo. I'd thought Real Madrid would win comfortably but in a blow out. They got out to an early lead and essentially put this one away in the first leg. 4-0 and from all I read they absolutely dominated. I saw still shots of both Crouch yellows and they seemed justified. That Harry Redknapp came out and said he deserved to be sent off cements it for me. The margin in this one may allow Mou to rest some key players when they go the White Hart Lane, something crucial since they have a grueling end of the season coming up. Tomorrow: Chelsea vs. Manchester United- I know Chelsea won their most recent league meeting but these two clubs feel worlds apart to me. When I look at Chelsea I see a collection of well paid superstars with a median age dangerously close to retirement. Yes they win a lot of games and on any given day can beat nearly any opponent. But they have turned in disapointing performances with shocking frequency. And then there is United, a side with markedly less star-power than it has had in recent years yet they continue to plug ahead and tally win after win after win. Currently alive on three fronts and in the driver's seat to claim a record 19th first division English title. I see a draw at Stamford Bridge tomorrow and then Manchester United winning in the return leg to go through to the semi-final. 1-1. Barcelona vs. Shaktar Donetsk- Despite Pep Guardiola's unconvincing press conference in which he said for the first time he didn't like what he saw and that he had a bad feeling about this I think the Spanish champions will be back in the CL semi-final for the third consecutive year. Shaktar is a team that play good football, use their fullbacks, and move the ball up the park with skilled passing. This has enabled them to be a force in the Ukraine and reach the final 8 in Europe. But against Barcelona, particularly at the Camp Nou, they have a critical choice to make. When the big fish is out of the little pond and fighting for it's life will it stick to its guns, or acknowledge reality and hunker down in a defensive posture? I know what I would do. As much as it might wound egos if Shaktar attempt to move the ball up the pitch from the back tomorrow Barcelona will pick them off and end the tie within a half hour. The one ray of hope for the Ukrainians is that Pep's Barsa have never won a knock-out stage Champions League game away from Cataluna. This should be even more incentive to park the bus, hang on for dear life, and live to fight another day back home. That said, I see Barcelona 3-0 winners tomorrow.

No Upsets Here

Today's two games hinted that two of Europe's biggest clubs, Chelsea and Real Madrid, will be in the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League. Le Sulk notched a brace to put struggling Chelsea in excellent position to move forward. To blow a two away goal lead at Stamford Bridge would be a monumental collapse.

The Lyon-Real Madrid match was a bit more interesting. I was surprised the French club had more shots and won more corners, despite losing the possession battle 59-41. They conceded first and had to chase the equalizer, something they probably did not want to do. But they got it and they go to Madrid with a real, if dim, hope of advancing. I thought this would be a nil draw and Real Madrid would take care of business at home, but getting an away goal was big. That Cristiano Ronaldo stayed out of the referee's book was enormous because he is teetering on the brink of suspension via accumulation. Mou's teams are exceptional at home and the Benzema's away goal puts the onus on Lyon to attack when they would clearly prefer to absorb and counter at the Bernabeu.

I am very excited for the Inter-Bayner Munich game tomorrow. It is a rematch of last year's final but it that feels so far away. Inter suffered through the brief Benitez era since that day in Spain and although Bayern have most of the squad (minus MVB) that lost that day in tact it feels like a different club. They have been good away in Italy in recent years but Inter have improved dramatically since Leonardo took over. Their methods of attack will be very different from what they employed at the Bernabeu, and having Pazzini cup-tied may complicate things, but I see a narrow victory for the champions setting up a classic in the second leg.

The Marseille-Manchester United tie might be the least interesting of this round. Draw in France win at Old Trafford. A fairly unremarkable version of the English superpower safely advance to the final eight, where they belong. Yawn.

More Round of 16

Twice last week I picked against an English club and both times I was wrong. With Chelsea traveling to Copenhagen tomorrow I will not make the same mistake. As lacklustre as the Blues have looked recently they just have too much talent to lose to a team that is essentially just happy to be here at this state of the competition. Chelsea are humiliated and frustrated to be out of the F.A. Cup and out of striking distance from the top of the table, but there may be a slight silver lining here in that it liberates them from other committments and allows them to focus on the Champions League. It would be a shock if they were to return to London trailing after the first leg. It would also likely mean Carlo Ancelotti's sacking.

The other match-up is far more interesting. Real Madrid travel to France for the first leg of their rematch against Lyon. The French club upset Madrid at this same stage last year and success here is a high priority for Mou's team. They are clearly the favorite in this tie but if there was one team they could have drawn who has a chance to knock them off I think Lyon is the one. As they showed last time the clubs met Lyon are a very good defensive team. They are disciplined, well organized, understand positional needs, good tacklers, and perhaps most importantly for a team that is resigned to play a counter-attacking style over two legs have the ability to surprise and players that can make the most of the rare chance they may get. In this regard there is good and bad news for Lyon. Bad: Licha Lopez, their most lethal striker, has been ruled out for tomorrow's game. The Good: Michel Bastos who plays in a variety of defensive positions can make surprising and deadly runs forward, the kind that are nearly impossible to predict and difficult to stop. I still think Real Madrid will make it to the quarter final for the first time in a half dozen years, but Lyon have more than a puncher's chance.

Liverpool Start Post-Torres Era Strong

Although the first game after El Nino's departure was the 2-0 midweek win the battle at the Bridge had everyone's attention. Torres's performance was nearly anonymous. He lasted just over an hour without ever seriously threatening Pepe Reina's net. The lone goal came from Raul Meierels who partnered Dirk Kuyt up front. I know everyone has been saying the "off the leash" approach Dalglish has taken to R.M. has transformed Liverpool, but because it is so true and so important, I will say it too. He looks like a different player from earlier in the season and the club are better off for it.

What I really took away from this game was that Carlo Ancelotti did not give his men the best chance to win. While Liverpool came out in a very flexible (nominal) 3-5-2 he opted for a 4-3-3 that allowed him to play the new signing along with Anelka and Drogba. While I understand the temptation to force all the talent onto the pitch this created a numbers game in favor of Liverpool in the middle of the field. Add to this the fact that none of those three are players who track back and labor when out of possession it seemed from the start that Chelsea were putting themselves at a disadvantage. To be fair I wouldn't say the Chelsea midfield were over run, but their inability to flow play toward their dangermen up front was evident.

And then the substitutions... this game reminded me of the loss to Arsenal over the holidays when Carlo blew his 3 changes on like for like moves that didn't impact the game. He brought Torres off which was probably the right call but slotted Kalou in his place. A drop in quality without really changing the dynamic. Next he took off Jon Obi Mikel in favor of Florent Malouda, presumably to chase the game. This makes sense because Malouda has been very dangerous this season but if you are in a 4-3-3 this either burden's him with defensive responsibilities that nullify his attacking play or it is begging to get countered and double the deficit. Finally the introduction of David Luiz for Jose Bosingwa seemed more an excuse to show off another new big money signing than anything else. He doesn't add an attacking dimension and if anything the Brazilian looked a little wobbly.

To further underline the triumph for Liverpool they pulled off the away win without the use of either of their new strikers. Meanwhile the Blues spent what they had and it wasn't enough. A 50 million pound signing is made with the long term in mind and given that he may be at his most usefulthis season in the CL I won't say it was a flop. But the first round clearly went to Liverpool.