Four Clasicos It Is...

Wednesday's batch of quarter-final matches were more predictable than the first two. A pretty close affair at the Bridge saw United score a road win by the minimum margin and Barcelona mauled Shaktar at the Camp Nou. I got to see the Barcelona game and although I predicted a 3-0 win I wasn't surprised by the 5-1 scoreline in the least. Going in the two biggest questions were 1, will Shaktar abandon their attacking philosophy in favor of a pragmatic approach and 2, if/when they concede the first goal will they open it up and chase the equalizer or try to lose 1-0? Barcelona struck early going up within five minutes and to their credit and/or detriment the Ukrainians did try to go forward and make something happen. The game was 2-0 at the half and when they the visitors got on the board to make it 3-1 there was almost a full minute where it seemed like the return leg held out some hope but then Messi made a great run and laid it off for Keita to blast into the upper corner and restore the margin. Xavi added one more to put the nail in the coffin. Barcelona were clearly going to win this game but I get the feeling Shaktar made it easy by chasing the game. It is tough to tell a team that has gotten this far that it should forego its game but reality is reality. If you go into the Camp Nou to spread men around the field and mount a flowing attack, you are going to be shredded to pieces. The return leg is now just a formality.

Whoa

I (thankfully) wasn't able to get out of work early to watch today's Champions League games. I kept tabs on both games and was dismayed to see Inter blow two leads and then totally collapse and all but say goodbye to the idea of defending their crown. I don't even want to watch the highlights let alone the replay. 5-2 is a monstrous deficit to overturn. They would need at least 4 goals in the second leg to go through. Boo. I'd thought Real Madrid would win comfortably but in a blow out. They got out to an early lead and essentially put this one away in the first leg. 4-0 and from all I read they absolutely dominated. I saw still shots of both Crouch yellows and they seemed justified. That Harry Redknapp came out and said he deserved to be sent off cements it for me. The margin in this one may allow Mou to rest some key players when they go the White Hart Lane, something crucial since they have a grueling end of the season coming up. Tomorrow: Chelsea vs. Manchester United- I know Chelsea won their most recent league meeting but these two clubs feel worlds apart to me. When I look at Chelsea I see a collection of well paid superstars with a median age dangerously close to retirement. Yes they win a lot of games and on any given day can beat nearly any opponent. But they have turned in disapointing performances with shocking frequency. And then there is United, a side with markedly less star-power than it has had in recent years yet they continue to plug ahead and tally win after win after win. Currently alive on three fronts and in the driver's seat to claim a record 19th first division English title. I see a draw at Stamford Bridge tomorrow and then Manchester United winning in the return leg to go through to the semi-final. 1-1. Barcelona vs. Shaktar Donetsk- Despite Pep Guardiola's unconvincing press conference in which he said for the first time he didn't like what he saw and that he had a bad feeling about this I think the Spanish champions will be back in the CL semi-final for the third consecutive year. Shaktar is a team that play good football, use their fullbacks, and move the ball up the park with skilled passing. This has enabled them to be a force in the Ukraine and reach the final 8 in Europe. But against Barcelona, particularly at the Camp Nou, they have a critical choice to make. When the big fish is out of the little pond and fighting for it's life will it stick to its guns, or acknowledge reality and hunker down in a defensive posture? I know what I would do. As much as it might wound egos if Shaktar attempt to move the ball up the pitch from the back tomorrow Barcelona will pick them off and end the tie within a half hour. The one ray of hope for the Ukrainians is that Pep's Barsa have never won a knock-out stage Champions League game away from Cataluna. This should be even more incentive to park the bus, hang on for dear life, and live to fight another day back home. That said, I see Barcelona 3-0 winners tomorrow.

The Quarters are Upon Us

The Champions League has returned quickly and the first batch of Quarter Final matches are tomorrow. The last eight teams are a collection of super-powers featuring the last three champions plus Chelsea and Real Madrid. Although it may seem like the a consolidation of the powerful there will be good matches and interesting storylines. Here is my opinion on what we will see tomorrow: Real Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur- Whoever they play Real Madrid will always be a big story and with Jose Mourinho at the helm that is even more true. This particular match-up features the return of Rafael van der Vaart and (surprisingly) Jonathon Woodgate to the place they once called home. If there is a possible "right time" to catch Real Madrid in Europe this may well be it for Spurs. A team loaded with internationals is coming off a FIFA break which may have disrupted their training schedule, they lost their first home game of the season over the weekend to the humble Sporting Gijon, and injuries will keep Benzema out of the game and make Cristiano Ronaldo and Marcelo game time decisions. That said all signs still point to Real Madrid taking a win in the first leg. They have better players with more experience at this stage, a coach who is safely better than his counterpart, they are playing at home, and most importantly when comparing the strengths and weaknesses of both clubs Madrid come out on top. The Spurs central defense is not very mobile and although I believe Basong and Dawson can probably neutralize the Madrid target man (most likely Higuain) the diversity of options Madrid have in attack will be too much to handle. CR7 and Di Maria will exploit the space created by Higuain. Real Madrid's 4-2-3-1 formation will allow them to defend against Spurs' two biggest strengths: creativity in the attacking midfield and Gareth Bale's run up the flank. The two holding midfielders should be enough of a shield to prevent van der Vaart and the Croats from creating the kind of opportunities they have against most teams. Having two players in there will also permit one to drift out and support Sergio Ramos when Bale comes tearing up the field. Of course Spurs could come in and shock the Bernabeu but looking at tomorrow's game I see a 2-0 win for los blancos. Inter Milan vs. Schalke 04- In some ways this looks like a huge mismatch, the defending champion against a team mired in the middle of the German table. But given how much turmoil both of these teams have gone through this season maybe that doesn't matter. I will admit I've only seen Schalke play a handful of times and don't have a great grasp of their identity. With a coach who has only been in charge for a week and a half I would venture to say not many people know what we will see when the Germans take the field at the San Siro tomorrow. To this point they have been a modest team that works hard in the midfield and has some individuals up front who can make magic. Raul and Jefferson Farfan can change a game in an instant. Inter are coming of a derby loss but made clear in the last round that they have championship pedigree requisite for big moments on the big stage. Diego Milito looks to be a last minute decision and I suspect he will start on the bench. With Pazzini cup-tied this is likely to leave Eto'o with a lot to shoulder up front. I think this will result in Schalke being comfortable in sitting back and making Inter take the game to them. At first glance that might look promising for the visitors, but if it plays out that way Inter have a lot of weapons in the midfield that can be dangerous if they are given space to come forward. Sneijder is well known for his attacking abilities but he will not be alone. I think Inter will win a not-too-exciting first leg 1-0.

Clash at the Camp Nou

It feels like forever ago that Arsenal won the first leg in London, but it was really just three weeks. What once seemed like a formality has the possibility of being an instant classic when they play the return leg in Barcelona. Going into Camp Nou with a lead is a dramatic improvement over Arsenal's position when they visited last year and need to either win or draw at more than two to survive. Yes Barcelona has an away goal, but the onus is fully on the Spanish champions this time.

Another thing the Gunners have going for them is what appears to be a series of fortunate breaks on the injury front. Samir Nasri, Cesc Fabregas, and Jack Wilshire all are rumored to be match fit, something that seemed out of the question only a week ago. Of these, Cesc is particularly valuable because he has a steady foot in possession and an ability, perhaps singular on this squad, to spot the kill pass scenario. The not so good news on in this regard is that Alex Song, probably their best ballwinning midfielder, is not in the squad list. Neither is Theo Walcott.

Barcelona have injury problems of their own as their starting central defense tandem will miss the game and Pep is a question mark on the sideline due to a herniated disc.

I believe the game will be a great one but it is likely to unfold in a predictable way. Arsenal will stick one man high and aim to deny the opponent of scoring opportunities. A lot of bodies around the ball and probably not too far back against their own goal. Barcelona will dominate possession of the ball as they always do and take advantage of the cautious Arsenal gameplan, at times overloading the flanks.

The outcome is far from set but I still believe Barcelona will advance.

The Roma Shaktar match that was never interesting to begin with is all but decided so...

No Upsets Here

Today's two games hinted that two of Europe's biggest clubs, Chelsea and Real Madrid, will be in the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League. Le Sulk notched a brace to put struggling Chelsea in excellent position to move forward. To blow a two away goal lead at Stamford Bridge would be a monumental collapse.

The Lyon-Real Madrid match was a bit more interesting. I was surprised the French club had more shots and won more corners, despite losing the possession battle 59-41. They conceded first and had to chase the equalizer, something they probably did not want to do. But they got it and they go to Madrid with a real, if dim, hope of advancing. I thought this would be a nil draw and Real Madrid would take care of business at home, but getting an away goal was big. That Cristiano Ronaldo stayed out of the referee's book was enormous because he is teetering on the brink of suspension via accumulation. Mou's teams are exceptional at home and the Benzema's away goal puts the onus on Lyon to attack when they would clearly prefer to absorb and counter at the Bernabeu.

I am very excited for the Inter-Bayner Munich game tomorrow. It is a rematch of last year's final but it that feels so far away. Inter suffered through the brief Benitez era since that day in Spain and although Bayern have most of the squad (minus MVB) that lost that day in tact it feels like a different club. They have been good away in Italy in recent years but Inter have improved dramatically since Leonardo took over. Their methods of attack will be very different from what they employed at the Bernabeu, and having Pazzini cup-tied may complicate things, but I see a narrow victory for the champions setting up a classic in the second leg.

The Marseille-Manchester United tie might be the least interesting of this round. Draw in France win at Old Trafford. A fairly unremarkable version of the English superpower safely advance to the final eight, where they belong. Yawn.

More Round of 16

Twice last week I picked against an English club and both times I was wrong. With Chelsea traveling to Copenhagen tomorrow I will not make the same mistake. As lacklustre as the Blues have looked recently they just have too much talent to lose to a team that is essentially just happy to be here at this state of the competition. Chelsea are humiliated and frustrated to be out of the F.A. Cup and out of striking distance from the top of the table, but there may be a slight silver lining here in that it liberates them from other committments and allows them to focus on the Champions League. It would be a shock if they were to return to London trailing after the first leg. It would also likely mean Carlo Ancelotti's sacking.

The other match-up is far more interesting. Real Madrid travel to France for the first leg of their rematch against Lyon. The French club upset Madrid at this same stage last year and success here is a high priority for Mou's team. They are clearly the favorite in this tie but if there was one team they could have drawn who has a chance to knock them off I think Lyon is the one. As they showed last time the clubs met Lyon are a very good defensive team. They are disciplined, well organized, understand positional needs, good tacklers, and perhaps most importantly for a team that is resigned to play a counter-attacking style over two legs have the ability to surprise and players that can make the most of the rare chance they may get. In this regard there is good and bad news for Lyon. Bad: Licha Lopez, their most lethal striker, has been ruled out for tomorrow's game. The Good: Michel Bastos who plays in a variety of defensive positions can make surprising and deadly runs forward, the kind that are nearly impossible to predict and difficult to stop. I still think Real Madrid will make it to the quarter final for the first time in a half dozen years, but Lyon have more than a puncher's chance.

Spurs Stunner and Manana

So I was wrong about the Milan Spurs game. Tottenham got an immensely valuable away win in the first leg, 1-0. I only saw highlights but it looks like they deserved the victory from Peter Crouch's goal. Also, Reno Gattuso, wtf bro... bad move. Next time you do that, don't do that.

Raul scored on his return to Spain to salvage a 1-1 draw for Schalke. This gives them a pretty good scenario going back to Germany. If Valencia had a little more experience in the squad they might have a shot at turning it around because an away goal might be all they need, but I kind of get the sense this is as far as they will get. Considering they offloaded their two best players in the summer it is not bad at all.

Tomorrow we will see the first of the rematch ties, Arsenal versus Barcelona. It has been said over and over: these teams play similar styles. Barcelona got the best of the Gunners in last year's 1/4finals, and I believe the same will happen this time. It is true the these teams' games mirror each other, but Barcelona are better in every aspect and probably every position. Both teams thrive in possession but Barcelona are far superior in pressure and recovery. What will Arsenal do when they don't have the ball for long stretches at a time? And how will they get it back without conceding dangerous free kicks? All things being equal I would say a nil draw at the Emirates and a multi goal margin in the Camp Nou, but with Samir Nasri likely to miss the first leg, the sting of the 1-1 in Gijon at the weekend, and the memories of last spring at play I think Barcelona might win in London.

The Roma-Shaktar tie is intriguing. Mostly because Roma are wildly unpredictable and Shaktar are virtually unknown to me. When Roma are on their game they can hold their own with the elite clubs in Europe, but they are not on their game consistently enough to be considered one of those clubs. Shaktar won their group and have a difficult ground for foreigners to win at. I suspect a result away will be even more of an advantage than usual in this one.