Group D

D is for Dude, as in "Dude... estas serioso?!?!". Also dog (poss my favorite animal). Denver, a very much top notch midsize American city. And dacha, which I hope to one day own.

Group D
Australia, Germany, Serbia, Ghana

This could be a very interesting group. The omnipresent Germans are the favorites and in all likelihood will find themselves in the round of 16 after three games. To me the other three teams are pretty interesting.

Ghana- I like Ghana's chances probably more than those of any other African country. They went through in the last tournament despite drawing a very difficult group. This time around they have a squad mostly in their mid 20s which should be able to utilize that experience. What will make or break Ghana, in my opinion, is the health and fitness of Michael Essien. He is an absolute beast. When he is healthy Essien is one of my favorite midfielders to watch. He is strong, skilled, powerful, and smart. A midfield built around an Essien-Muntari partnership should give Ghana a very good chance of making it out of the group stage once again.
PTW- Michael Essien

Germany- The Germans are always, always, always strong and there is no reason to think this time will be any different. Since Low took over the top spot from Klinsman Germany have made it to the Euro final where they lost 1-0 to a dynamic Spanish team and powered through qualifying undefeated (8-0-2). What I find interesting about the German side going into next summer is all the questions surrounding what is in many ways a power in transition. Who will fill the vacancy in goal? After his flop of a debut on the big stage at the Euros is Mario Gomez ready to be the machine he is at club level for the national team? Can Klose continue his domination of world cups (and maybe challenge for the all time goal record?)? Is Philip Lahm's offensive contribution worth the risk he exposes the German defense to? All of these questions will be answered next summer, but most likely after the group stage. There is too much skill, experience, focus, and organization to think Germany won't make it through.
PTW- Bastian Schweinsteiger. In 2006 and 2008 he showed flashes of true brilliance and he has been very exciting to watch at club level. I get the feeling that maybe Schweinsteiger has stalled a bit and has not been able to make the leap to stardom many people expected but he seems to be a player that dials it up when wearing a German shirt. He is big and fast and mean but also skilled and smart.

Serbia- The fact that Serbia won a group with France in it to qualify should be enough for them to be taken seriously. It is often easy to group the lesser known European teams into a "pretty good/not so bad" also ran group of nations, but I think this Serbian squad has a legitimate chance to make some waves. With months still to go, I see them battling Ghana for the second spot. They face each other in an opening match that will probably be passionate and urgent because they know what lies ahead. Serbia have a solid defense comprised of players who shine at some of the bigger European clubs. Nemanja Vidic may be one of the best 3 central defenders in the world. There is skill going forward and on any given day Dejan Stankovic looks like a world beater at Inter Milan. It will be up to him to drive the attack.
PTW- Dejan Stankovic.

Australia- This is by no means a bad team, but I think Australia are doomed to finish last in Group D. They reached a huge milestone in 2006 by reaching the round of 16 and this squad has many guys who play in the bigger leagues of Europe so they have a fighting chance but I don't see them being as powerful as Ghana or as technical as Serbia. Of course to see them make it through would not be a huge shock either. If that were to happen it would be on the back of Tim Cahill's creativity and playmaking and Scott MacDonald's finishing. There are pieces to work with, I just think they come up a bit short.
PTW- Mark Schwarzer. I suspect the Fulham goalkeeper will have his hands full. He will have to make saves he shouldn't to give Australia a chance.

The race for second should be a good one in this group.

My group predictions:
1. Germany (7)
2. Ghana (4)
3. Serbia (4)
4. Australia (1)

Group C

C is for -amongst other things- Calvin, Cheese, and Croatia.

Group C
England, USA, Slovenia, Algeria

Group C has one borderline elite team and three good, hungry teams looking to make their mark. This might be a good one.

Slovenia- To be honest I don't know much about this squad. I saw parts of their two legs against Russia and was very impressed. They played well and the fact that they knocked off what was a heavily favored Russian squad with world class talent speaks for itself. As an Inter supporter I have caught glimpses of Rene Khrnin but not enough to know his game and I am not even sure he will figure prominently in the Slovenian squad. I know it is not much but the most I can say about this team is they are one of those classic lower end European/South American teams that will be beaten by the better teams if taken seriously but can ruin dreams if not.
PTW- It would be a lie to claim I know enough about any of these guys to say.

England- If the tournament were to start today the only teams ahead of England would be Spain and Brazil. Taking everything into consideration- skill, grit, experience, manager, depth, etc- England look like a legitimate title contender. They blazed through qualification and seem well poised to win this group. If there is one possible danger scenario it may the possibility of a problem in central defense. As of right now I imagine Terry, Ferdinand, and Lescott are the center-halfs and it is not irrational to think fitness concerns could plague the trio. But still that is a long shot. If England do not win group C it will likely be their own fault.

Algeria- Much like Slovenia I am kind of in the dark about the Algerians. I know they played those dramatic two games last month against Egypt to put themselves in at the death. The clips I saw showed gritty and determined players playing their hearts out. This may go against current conventional wisdom but I am not high on the prospects of African football at either club or country level. Africans players are phenomenal, but I will take a national team seriously when they reach a world cup semi-final. Being that South Africa are hosting this might be the year, we will see. Just a quick note: everyone talked about how Algeria defeated the defending two-time champion of Africa to win their berth. Fair enough. Egypt have not appeared in a World Cup since Italy 1990. Just saying.
PTW- See Slovenia.

USA- Living in America it is easy to get swept up in speculation. Some people are ready to declare the US a heavyweight, others are eternal doubters. Personally I see a talented pool of players who have enough experience at the highest levels to be a threat. There is also a certain bit of hunger I think. What makes me a little nervous about the USA is a tactical guilelessness on the part of Bob Bradley. I have rarely if ever seen make a mid-game correction that worked. The other thing is a tendency in past American squads to want to live on previous results. Last summer in the Confed Cup was a great achievement, but let's be honest: the US finished 2-3 and only beat one team better than them (Spain). If they want to go through they need to be focused 100 percent on England, Slovenia, and Algeria. They might know what you did last summer, but none of them care. This might be meaningless, it might not: The US are Terrible in Europe, but do pretty well elsewhere. World Cups 1990 (Italy), 1998 (France), and Germany (2006) saw the US earn a total of 1 (ONE!!!) point in 9 matches. Meanwhile they made it through a true group of death on home soil in 1994 and played respectably in the loss to eventual champion Brazil, and reached the quarter final in Asia 2002. So I think that is a good sign, maybe. They should go through in second place.
PTW- Landon Donovan. For all the divided opinions on Landon he is the one player with unique characteristics on this team. There are plenty of guys that can work and run and tackle, scoring may not be in surplus but they have finishers, but Donovan can change the dynamic of a game with his blend of skills.

Group C prediction:
1. England (7)
2. USA (5)
3. Slovenia (4)
4. Algeria (0)

Group B

B is for Bro Down. It is also for Belgium and Bark. A few other things too.

Here is how I see it playing out in South Africa:


Group B
Argentina, South Korea, Nigeria, Greece

This is a somewhat interesting group. I think the consensus is that the group is made up of a wounded superpower (Argentina) and three good, very solid but not great teams from different corners of the world. I see that but in the end I suspect group B will shake out more or less along traditional lines.

South Korea- Over the last fifteen years or so South Korea has become recognized as one of the better Asian squads. Other people give that more weight than I do, but they are not a minnow. Still, an inspection of past performance and the makeup of the current team make them look like the weakest team in group B. Their only notable World Cup campaign came in 2002 and was so repulsively reliant on blatant FIFA Favors that I can not take it seriously. They went 1-1-1 in a moderate group in 2006 and their best recent showing in a very modest confed was third place in 2007. As far as the squad they feature Ji-Sung Park, a constant presence in the Manchester United line up, but other than that it is comprised of journeyman and domestic based players. There is nothing in this team that suggests it will shine in the group phase.
PTW: Ji-Sung Park. He has played in big games and won important trophies (his Champions League flop last spring is probably an aberration) and will not wilt on the big stage. He is also industrious and hardworking and can have the kind of pace to create something.

Nigeria- Their appearance in this WC is not a fluke, Nigeria have a very respectable record over the last two decades at senior and Olympic level. They are what you would expect from a solid African team: powerful and hardworking. This squad also contains some good skill players with important experience at the height of European competition. Although I think there are some soft spots, particularly in the wide areas of the field, a passage to the round of 16 is very much a possibility.
PTW: Jon Mikel Obi. If not for the heavyweights he shares the Chelsea midfield with, this guy would be a superstar already at 22. I think he is the player to watch because he can anchor a midfield and destroy oncoming attacks, scoop the ball and start the play the other way. Very well rounded and very dangerous. His one drawback is an occasional lack of discipline and that kind of thing can be disastrous with hair trigger referees and the 3 game season that is the group stage.

Argentina- A true enigma, it can be said they are the South American mirror image of France going into this tournament. This team is overloaded with talent (although most notably up front, they have players who start on elite European clubs at every position) but burdened by a manager who is more or less out of his mind and not very good at coaching. Whereas France must deal with a guy everyone agrees is a kook, the overwhelming larger-than-life persona of Maradona makes it difficult to shrug him off. It will be up to a veteran presence in the squad (someone like Veron or Zanetti, if they are called to South Africa) to make his teammates understand the shirt is more important than anything else and they have to win despite Maradona's insanity.
PTW: Lionel Messi is the best player in the world and it would be hard to pick anyone else. Even if I wanted to Maradona's inexplicable team selections put all but him and captain Javier Mascherano's presence in doubt. Messi's shortcomings with the national team are way overblown and really amount to 4 qualifying matches. He impressed at Copa America 2007, played well early in qualifying, and destroyed the Olympic tournament. He has excelled in the big games at club level and knows this may be his moment to cement his place as one of the games greats. I suspect a solid performance by Messi will carry Argentina far.

Greece- Not a European superpower but a very solid team. Qualifying through UEFA is never easy and the Grecians (*) won an impressive play-off against the Ukraine. Although they have strayed from this formula a bit recently the Greek MO has been discipline, tight marking, defense, and capitalizing on the chances they get. It won them a Euro in 2004, another appearance in 2008, and a trip to South Africa. That they are managed by a master in Otto Rehhagel is perhaps their best asset. He has been pulling the strings for a long time and the Greeks know to listen to him. I see them battling Nigeria for second in the group and actually like their chances quite a bit. They play the patient, sober (boring?) game that might be needed to knock off what is perhaps a better Nigerian team. Nigeria are strong and domineering, but the Greeks may well be able to pick them off in the middle of the park and counterattack. That is going to be the game to watch in group B.
PTW: This really is a bland, generic, faceless squad so I am going to pick Otto. It is in his hands.


My group prediction:
1. Argentina (7)
2. Greece (5)
3. Nigeria (4)
4. South Korea (1)

Back/Merry Christmas/WC Group A

Dudes! I am back. I know this blog has been dormant for a while but so what? Who cares?! You are not the boss of me!!!!

So anyway Merry Christmas to everyone. Since I have some time off for the holiday I am thinking of doing a sort of preview for the World Cup, group by group, one a day. First up is Group A, because it is first alphabetically.


GROUP A
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

This has been called one of the strongest groups for a host nation and I don't disagree. I would also point out South Africa is one of the weakest hosts ever, so that factors into it.

South Africa- Whenever a country hosts the WC it prepares for years and years and usually does a pretty good job of not embarrassing itself. There is no reason to think SA will get blown out but I am not nearly as bullish on them as some others. They have changed coaches twice in the last two years, although the last one was a return so maybe one and a half times. I saw them in last summer's Confed Cup and despite holding on until late against Brazil I saw nothing that really impressed me. They have a couple of players that do reasonably well in the Prem, but most of the squad is unknown to me. I don't think they will be a doormat but it would shock me to see them go through.
Player To Watch (PTW): Benny McCarthy. He is a guy who legitimately threatens to score. I get the feeling South Africa aren't a team that create goals with ease so they will need him to be the hitman he has been at Rovers.

Mexico- This current incarnation of the Mexican squad is not terribly powerful. They had a rough go of qualifying and Mexico are not a team that usually travels well. Does that help or hurt in a neutral-ish sight like South Africa? Who knows. Beyond the run of form and intangibles I just don't think this line up is that great. It is not awful either Mexico look like the kind of team that will cobble together a starting 11 and take it game by game. One thing that has stuck out to me over the years is the fragility of Mexican teams in international tournaments. Once they go a goal down a game that they looked very much in all of a sudden escapes them as they doubt themselves and their teammates. This is a group where they may well be down a goal more than once and they can not allow themselves to implode if they want to make it to the knockout rounds.
PTW: Rafa Marquez. Although he has seen his starts limited at Barcelona by the emergence of Gerard Pique Marquez remains a quality defender and possibly the best player on this team. As a center-half he will have to be at his very, very best in order to contain the French and Uruguayan strikers. If Mexico don't take at least 2 points in those matches they are not going through.

Uruguay- Maybe it is because I closely watch CONMEBOL, or maybe it is because I am huge history nerd and appreciate their pedigree, but I like this team much more than most people going into next summer. Like all Charua squads they are gritty to the brink of viciousness, and they have a couple of truly elite skill players. Forlan is the reigning Spanish and European golden boot and Luis Suarez holds the crown in Holland. Both of these guys are lethal. With an old but reliable Sebastian Abreu coming off the bench as a poor man's Peter Crouch they have a diverse attack. The flaw in this team is inconsistency. They routinely get results against great teams and drop points to very humble opposition. This may have to do with the thinness of the squad which in turn has to do with the comparatively small and aging population of Uruguay. It is very difficult to predict how they will do but I find myself liking their chances.
PTW: It would be easy to pick one of the bombers up front but I am going to say Diego Lugano. He isn't as talked about in the Americas because he plays in the relative purgatory of Turkish football but he is a fitting captain and embodies the tradition of Uruguayan football. In defense he is tough and rugged when he needs to but also skilled enough to separate attackers from the ball without drawing a foul. The goals he scores often seem to come in big spots like the one in San Jose during the play-in. When Diego Lugano is on Uruguay are a very good team. When he is absent or seems lost they are very run-of-the-mill.

France- For a team who is the current runner-up, has won both a World Cup and a Euro in the last dozen years, and features starters from the reigning English, Spanish, and European champion clubs France are being taken very lightly. And for good reason (sort of). Beyond the obvious legitimacy question of their qualification, Raymond Domenech is a completely inept manager who happens to find himself in command of a squad full of mind blowing talent. His tactical shortcomings are obvious and personal problems with players are legendary. If he is able to keep himself out of his team's own way, or if he is sacked before South Africa, France could be a big contender. Anelka, Henry, Benzema, Ribery, Gomis, and Govou lead what could be a superstar attack. Despite a so-so tenure at AC Milan I am very high on Flamini as a holding midfielder, and the backline which includes Abidal, Gallas, and Evra is more than enough. They have a good pool of keepers to choose from, but like with most things, expect Domenech to make it harder than it should be.
PTW: Franck Ribery. A truly world class attacking player Ribery threatens just as much by creating chances as he does to score goals himself. His absence in qualifiers made the task a little harder than it needed to be. If he is healthy and in form next summer the strike corps will feast on the opportunities he creates.

My Group Prediction:
1. France (9)
2. Uruguay (6)
3. Mexico (1)
4. South Africa (1)

WCQ re-cap

We are that much closer to knowing the participants in next summer's World Cup. Cameroon, New Zealand, and Nigeria punched their tickets. I made some predictions before this round of European and American play-offs, some right some wrong. Quick thoughts:

I saw a 1-1 in Athens and it turned out to be a draw, but without goals. This puts Ukraine in an interesting position. They have to win one game at home and they are through... but the classic conundrum of a nil draw in the first leg (away) is that a score draw at home puts the opponent through on away goals. I still think Ukraine do it.

Russia got by 2-1 and although I didn't see the game the reports indicate it was closer than I had expected. Going away to Slovenia there is a chance this gets complicated but I still think Russia go through.

I thought Bosnia would get a point in the first leg but they came up a bit short. A few fortunate bounces off posts ensured Portugal's one goal was enough. To be completely honest I would still be willing to bet Bosnia win this series. Let's see what happens in midweek.

Ireland played hard but France was just too much to overcome. Going home with a win in their pocket France is likely to be back in the World Cup. Although for the record they did lose to Scotland in Paris during qualification for last year's Euros. Still, there is probably too much quality in the French side.

Uruguay got an away win in San Jose by the minimum. I was not at all surprised by this and it could have been by more. I saw a little more than half of this game and a few things came to mind: 1, the ball bounced off the pitch as much yesterday as it did when the US played there in the spring. At what point does the CR federation just say "okay this is absurd we are going to do something about it". 2, the Uruguayans seemed bent on forcing passes through tiny slivers of holes in the Costa Rican defense (it was usually the final ball) and often it didn't work. With other options available they could have done more damage. If they correct this they might run up the score in Montevideo. 3, most of the game was shot as a close up with the camera quickly following the ball. This gave the awkward feeling of not seeing most of the field and not really knowing what was going on in a larger sense. It is strange and kind of amusing at first but robs the viewer of the usual experience of watching a game on television.

Pitch Itch Predicts

Here are some quick thoughts on the eve of the play-offs for the final World Cup spots:

Greece-Ukraine
Ukraine clearly has the better squad but Greece are capable of getting results because of their organization and superb game planning. I am fairly certain Ukraine will go through but the first leg I see ending in a draw, maybe 1-1.

Slovenia-Russia
Of all the European series this is the easiest to pick. Russia will cruise to South Africa. If they hadn't been in a group with Germany they would probably be qualified already. Slovenia are not a bad side and can take comfort in making it this far but knocking off the Russians is extremely unlikely. Saturday's game will probably be 3-0 or so.

Portugal-Bosnia
At first glance you might think Portugal are a good bet to go through but it might not be that simple. They are probably still the favorite but take into consideration they will be without Cristiano Ronaldo for at least the first leg, that Carlos Quieroz is a brilliant football mind but a mediocre head coach, and that the team underwhelmed in qualifying and are only here due to the simultaneous collapse of Hungary and Sweden and it looks like Bosnia has a chance. I will say they Lisbon with a draw and Bosnia wins the second leg.

Ireland-France
This could easily be an upset with Ireland knocking off the runners-up of the previous World Cup. France are overloaded with talent but are burdened with an unbelievably cumbersome coach that severely hampers their ability. Ireland are not nearly as talented but do have some skill players in key spots, always come out and play hard from start to finish, and get a hand from Trappatoni on the bench. I am going to say they win the first leg 1-0 then... who knows.

Costa Rica-Uruguay
Here in North America the prevailing line of thought is that this will be a close series and Costa Rica may sneak through. I strongly disagree. Uruguay are in another class. Costa Rica get some respect by being the third best team in Concacaf, but when you think about it that doesn't really say too much. They do have a good record at home but they rarely play tough opponents. Uruguay's squad is not terribly deep but it does include some elite players like Diego Forlan (top scorer in any European league last year) and Luis Suarez (reigning Dutch golden boot). I see a huge gulf in quality as well as tenacity between the two sides. Maybe 2-1 in Costa Rica and then a comfortable Uruguayan win in Montevideo.

Pellegrini Going?

Of course there have been calls for Pellegrini to leave Real Madrid and thus far the club has supported him. What really caught my attention was that he left Sergio Ramos out of the squad for yesterday's debacle because, according to Pellegrini, he thought the red Ramos received in a league match at the weekend meant he was unavailable. That is worse than when Avram Grant wrote out a team sheet with 10 names. It is borderline unbelievable. Is there any country where cards from one competition apply to another? And even if the answer to that question is yes, Pellegrini has been coaching in Spain's first division for years and should know the rules. When thinking of how that influenced the result of the match... maybe it doesn't look so bad. Madrid held a clean sheet and Ramos presence wide on the right may have threatened but it probably wouldn't have produced another 4 goals. But it does suggest that perhaps Pellegrini's focus on the job at hand is not as sharp as it should be.

On a lighter note I liked the way he handled questions about his decision to bring Marcelo on for Lass. He said he wanted to make sure Lass wasn't hurt and "he wasn't going to score four goals by himself anyway". That made me laugh, and it is true. Still, is an extra defender in place of a holding MF what you want when you are trying to pump in goals? Another move that keeps the doubt buzzing.

In other Pellegrini crisis news there are rumors that Guti may be on his way out at the window. His agent has suggested he may go to Inter, although he admits there has been no contact from the club. Why would Inter want him? I said something similar about Wesley Sneijder and he has turned out to be their best midfielder, but I really don't see Guti moving to the San Siro.

Another Tragedy

I was about to do a very different post, but then I heard of Robert Enke's death and it kind of discouraged me from the long and fact filled idea I had. That is really sad. Enke was currently Germany's number 1 GK and probably would have been with them in the World Cup next summer. All reports say he was hit by a train and most of them suggest it was a suicide. Very sad story. There have been a lot of these things in the last few months. I wonder if it is just a run of bad luck or if the hyper-coverage and proliferation of media brings these stories to us quicker and in more depth than before. Either way, terrible news.

From tragedy to comedy: Real Madrid eliminated from Copa del Rey by Alcorcon! Hahahaha. After getting trounced 4-0 in the first leg Pellegrini brought out the big guns to try and turn it around at the Bernabeu and all they could manage was a meager 1-0 win over the third division club. You can say everyone gives Real Madrid their A-game but really this is embarrassing. In other Copa matches Barcelona stomped on Culutural 5-0 and Atletico finally won a game comfortably, 6-0 over Marbella.

A Change a Lazio?

Lazio started out the season with the Italian Super Cup and two league wins but it has been pretty much a disaster from then on. I watched them lose 2-1 to AC Milan at home today and to be fair they probably deserved a point, but after a string of bad performances (including a devestating 4-1 drubbing by Villarreal in Europa League last week) the notion that Davide Ballardini's days at the helm are numbered is becoming unavoidable. Lazio are by no means a title contender but they have the roster and resources to be much better than they have shown recently.

Early this year (not season) there was a rumor that former Lazio player Diego Simeone was on the verge of taking over but it never materialized. He got the San Lorenzo job instead. It just so happens that his natural cycle is appears to be coming to a close at El Ciclon and he could be available if there is a change at Lazio. San Lorenzo are 6 points back of the leaders as the Argentine tournament enters the home stretch and followed up their Copa Sudamericana elimination during the week with a 1-0 home loss to Banfield. Simeone is a very good manager with titles on his resume but when he loses a locker room it is lost forever. Estudiantes and River Plate are good examples.

Asking a guy who is leaving his job on a less-than-high note in South America to turn around a club in Serie A would be unorthodox but his history with the club, managerial success at an early age, and personal status might make him a gamble Lazio are willing to take.

Inter

That was pretty awesome. The last five minutes of the Dinamo game pretty much erased all the misery that has been Inter in the Champions Leauge so far this season. This has to be one of the weirdest groups in the history of the tournament. After 4 match-days no team has more than 6 points, and every team has a legitimate chance to move on.

Barcelona continue to teeter on the brink of not-so-awesome but I still get the feeling they will beat Dinamo next match and put themselves in a good place. I am very confident for Rubin Kazan's visit to the San Siro.

Fernando Caceres Shot

Just weeks after the horrible crash involving Charlie Davies tragedy has struck the footballing world again. Former Argentine international and Valencia (amongst others) defender Fernando "el negro" Caceres was shot in the head during an attempted carjacking in Buenos Aires. He is currently in the hospital and doctors had some discouraging words about his chances, although that link has some very emotional pictures of support from fans and players.

When I first read the news it was in a Spanish paper and I thought the name sounded familiar. It took a few moments but as I read on and learned he was currently coaching in the Independiente youth system I realized who it was. I remember Caceres from the team that played the World Cup in the US back in 1994, and also as one of the few (but not that few when you really think about it) to play on both sides of the Superclasico Argentino during his career. This is so sad, Pitch Itchy wishes him well.

Not Yet

Going into the weekend it really felt (or maybe I wanted it to?) like Real Madrid were about to enter full-blown crisis mode. Turns out I was wrong. Higuain scored 2 goals a few minutes apart and gave them the derby over Getafe. Guti stayed out of the squad and the bad blood with Pellegrini appears to be there still, but with the three points and Barcelona getting turning a win over Osasuna into a draw via a last minute own goal Madrid are now only one point out of first. Spanish football looks different today than a few days back.

And this week will be huge. A win away in Milan would put Madrid in a very safe position in the Champion's League. Meanwhile Barcelona take on Rubin Kazan in Russia with much more riding on the game than anyone thought when the schedule was released. A single point would essentially assure Sevilla's passage to the next round. Interesting times.

Real Intrigues

As you could have expected the significance of Real Madrid's embarassing 4-1 Copa del Rey loss went well beyond the final whistle. Not long after it was revealed, or rumored (depending on who you believe), that Guti and Pellegrini really got into it. Guti ripped into his teammates in the locker room, which is totally legitimate, and supposedly the manager stepped in and asked everyone to keep their heads and just go out and do their business in the second half. Guti may or may not have been okay with this but he was absolutely not okay when Pellegrini added that Guti would be on the bench in favor of Fernando Gago when the game resumed. Then some say that he told his manager to stick it up... well you know.

If there was any hope of it blowing over and being seen as a passing heat of the moment thing the squad list for this weekend's match squashed it. Shortly after telling the press he would be surprised to be left out of the squad for the derby with Getafe, claiming he was perfectly fit, Guti received the news that he was indeed not included in Real's plans for the weekend. The manager's explanation ran contrary to the player's comments when he blamed an injury, not a personal spat or punishment, was the reason for his exclusion.

This is an intereseting situation. Guti is not the biggest star at the club, by far, but he does have a special place in the Real Madrid universe. He has been there over a decade and is a club legend. When it comes to fan adoration he is behind only Casillas and Raul at the moment (in my opinion as an outsider). Pellegrini is a new coach on a run of bad form, but if he is to succeed, and there is every reason to think the club believes so (or they would have sacked him already) he can not lose a power struggle with any player, even Guti. So there are a million ways to think about this. Maybe Guti knew he wouldn't be included and made his comments to undercut his manager. Maybe he really thought he would be playing. Maybe he didn't want to be seen as disowning the mess the club is in and wanted the fans to believe he was 100 percent committed, come what may. And the options are many on the other side as well.

This has the potential to really drag on and hurt the club. Given the dismal run of form, the difficult schedule ahead, and the elite level of their competitors the Guti-Pellegrini conflict could go beyond a player and manager not seeing eye to eye. We all know who is more likely to exit the club. Then again a win over Getafe and a result in Milan in midweek and the headlines will be Madrid Regain Form, Ronaldo Coming Soon. It will be a pivotal few days in Spanish football.

Madrid Fall Again

In all honesty I had to check a second website to make sure this wasn't a gag. Real Madrid lost the first leg of their Copa del Rey series to Alcorcon 4-0! This is unbelievable by itself, but take into consideration that a) they went out shamefully last year as well and b) the side Madrid put on the field included Arbeloa, Albiol, Gago, Granero, Raul and Benzema and this has to be in the top 5 most embarrassing Madrid losses of all time.

Since they only managed a meager draw away at Gijon last weekend and got popped at the Bernabeu by AC Milan during the week, naturally calls for Pellegrini's resignation are coming down. It is only natural that someone has to pay the price here, and it may be him. But really who is out there? Does anyone really think what is wrong here is the manager? They finished second in one of the elite leagues in the world then added Karim Benzema, The Greasy One, Kaka, Xabi Alonso, and put two Spanish internationals in their backline.

I still really can't get my head around this. They may be able to turn it around in the second leg, but this is a stain that won't come out in the wash. And like I mentioned before, the margin for error in the league is minuscule. Not only are they chasing the Barcelona machine but a very good Sevilla team is only 3 points back. On current form Sevilla are clearly better than Madrid, and they are in the enviable position of having a perfect record in Europe so far. With their passage to the knockout rounds secure they can prioritize their league matches until the new year. On the other hand Madrid may have a real fight on their hands in a group where they still have to go away to Marseille and Milan. I think Real Madrid will go through but things are very sticky right now at the Bernabeu.

The Shape of Spain

It is impossible to say for sure but I have a feeling when the winner of the Spanish league is crowned in the spring we will look back on this weekend as a pivotal moment. The top two teams (and to be honest it is a two horse race) had critical games. They both suffered disappointing and maybe embarrassing Champs League losses at home during the week, both were coming off deflating league performances from the previous week, both were trying to shake off the lingering effects of the "virus FIFA" from the international break, and both were up against teams near the bottom of the table.

One showed up and the other didn't. Real Madrid flopped on their visit to Sporting Gijon and got a meager nil draw. It is true they were without certain players like Gonzalo Higuain but the most expensive roster in the history of professional sports should be able to put at least one goal past the just-happy-to-be-here crew from Gijon. On the other hand Barcelona bounced back from two underwhelming results and absolutely plastered Real Zaragoza 6-1 in the Nou Camp. The Zaragoza goal was the product of yet another mental lapse in the Barca defense which has been all too common this season but aside from that it was really a masterful performance. As it stands now Barcelona have only a 3 point lead on Madrid but considering how good they are Real Madrid may not be able to afford falling back any further.

2 Quick Things

Franck Ribery out for a month. Bad for Bayern because he will miss the CL match with Bordeaux after they lost in France. It could come away being the match that decides BM's Champs League fate. Equally as bad for France because it puts him out of the squad for the two-leg play-off with Ireland for a trip to South Africa. Even before this injury I thought it would be a surprisingly competitive match-up. Even more so now.

And there is news that Wolfsburg have had a "talking to" Brazilian striker and last year's German golden boot Grafite. He hasn't scored in what seems like ages, is lacking focus, and was sent off for a capricious and needless elbow. Raise your hand if you are surprised. Grafite had a hot streak last year but throughout his career he has been a total flake. Now it is just a matter of waiting for the inevitable pictures of him in nightclubs and allegations of a drinking problem followed by the mandatory loan stint back to a Brazilian club so he can "find himself". Yawn.

Upset Tuesday

I am shocked. I don't think there has been a single day with this many upsets in the Champs League group stage in years. I am not going to say ever, because that is not the kind of thing I do, but off hand none that can top this come to mind. Two outright upsets: Rubin Kazan win 2-1 at the Nou Camp and Lyon knock off Liverpool at Anfield by the same score. Rangers getting stomped 4-1 at Ibrox by a Romanian team alien to most of Europe until recently is surprising, but the more objective and honest you are about Rangers the less shocking it is. They are not an elite European side. Dinamo Kyiv's 2-2 draw at San Siro counts as an upset in nearly every way.

I am only marginally surprised Arsenal were held 1-1 on their visit to AZ Alkmaar. I thought Sevilla would win away to Stuttgart but maybe not by 2 goals, and reading reports of the match it sounds like they really put the screws to Stutt. I know they lost at the weekend with most of their starters on the field but right now Sevilla deserve to be in the conversation for best team in Europe (on current form not favorite to win XYZ, best line-up, etc.).

As always happens in situations like these people are going to be crying about the "FIFA virus" and blame it for the big boys losing games they should walk through. When you consider injuries to guys like Fernando Torres and travel from international duty on other continents it might seem reasonable, but this is the Champions League, nearly every team is loaded with internationals.

As an Inter fan I am legitimately worried about qualifying for the knock out stages. Inter sit bottom of the group with a meager 3 points, although they are the only undefeated team ;) and the other three are only a point ahead. Still, the road ahead is difficult. Away in Kyiv and Barcelona with a home game against R. Kazan sandwiched in between. It seems very likely that Inter will be traveling to the Nou Camp needing a result to go through on the last day of the group stage.

Almost Set

So spots in South Africa next summer are almost all full. There are 8 left. 2 in Africa that I have no idea/opinion about. New Zealand-Bahrain already played their first leg and I can't really say who is a better team. I believe Uruguay will beat Costa Rica with relative ease over two legs next month. And today UEFA released the match ups for the remaining 4 European spots at the World Cup. Russia has to be a heavy favorite over Slovenia. Portugal take on Bosnia (wink, wink) and would have to beat themselves to not qualify. Greece and Ukraine may be competitive but I admit to know little about either national team. France should cruise past Ireland but for some reason I think this one will be very tight and an upset is possible.

I love the World Cup and now that Argentina have their spot secure I am relaxed and looking forward to South Africa. The play-offs next month and the group drawing shortly thereafter... here we go.

It All Comes Down to This

Saturday was an emotional roller coaster for Pitch Itchy. On line at Nevada Smith's getting more and more nervous as kick-off time of the Argentina-Peru match approached and we only advanced a few feet in an hour, I was pretty sure it was going to end poorly. Then a friend of a friend got a bar in Brooklyn to pay per view the game and there was a mad scramble over the W-burg bridge and into Green Point. Got there just in time for kick off. Awesome stuff.

The game itself was extremely trying as well. Argentina dominated possession, run of play, opportunities, etc but it was scoreless into the break. After Higuain's goal they took their foot of the gas and just when it looked like they were going to get away with Peru got the equalizer. I was still descending to progressively darker levels of depression when out of nowhere Martin Palermo (!?) slotted the game-winner home. Then the night got really weird/good/bad/memorable. Maybe when you are older we can have a talk about it.

Anyway with Uruguay's victory in Quito this Wednesday's edition of the Battle of the River Plate takes on monumental importance. Because people are miserable and it is the nature of South America (in soccer yes but you can say that about many aspects of life) the conspiracy theorists are busy suggesting there is an agreement between Argentina and Uruguay. This is ridiculous for a bunch of reasons. The easiest way to dispel this myth is by stating the obvious: a draw does not change either team's fate, it all depends on the outcome of Ecuador-Chile which will play at the same time. Argentina have 25 points, Uruguay sit at 24, and Ecuador are right behind them with 23. A draw would leave Uruguay at the mercy of Chile. Are they really going to sign for a draw and hope a team that has already qualified and has nothing to play for goes out and beats an Ecuadoran side fighting for its life? Probably not. Uruguay and Argentina both hold the tiebreaker over Ecuador so if Argentina wins and there is a draw in Santiago, Urguay still go through to the play-off. If there is a draw in Montevideo and Ecuador win, Argentina goes straight to South Africa and Ecuador gets the 4th place team from Concacaf. There are just too many unkowns for these teams to agree a draw.

I thought Argentina's line-up was right for the match on Saturday, although not perfect. So it was not too much of a bummer to learn it will be significantly tweaked for Wednesday. Diego Maradona has had a well chronicled series of debacles as the national team manager and his team selection has left a lot to be desired but right now it looks like he has finally gotten it right. The preliminary line-up appears to be:

Higuain Messi

Lucho Gonzalez Veron Mascherano Jonas

Heinze Schiavi Otamendi Pareja

Romero

This is a more defensive formation than what was really a 3-5-2 against Peru, and for good reason. Uruguay know the only way to ensure they live to see another day is to attack, and they will be willing to do so at home. It is prudent to shore up the side in the back and be patient. Peru allowed Argentina 2/3 of the field essentially free and the formation on Saturday was able to exploit that, but it will be much different in the final match. This line-up is better suited to win balls and battles in the middle of the park. Although I really liked Aimar's performance in Buenos Aires and admit he is a better playmaker than Veron at this point in their careers, Veron's physical attributes and ability to win tackles makes him a better option. A similar argument can be made for the inclusion of Lucho Gonzalez in place of Di Maria (who in my opinion was exceptional against Peru). Lucho is underrated in his ability to do the dirty work sometimes required to win. He is a phenomenal playmaking midfielder but can do the grunt work when asked, and in a clasico against Uruguay that is indispensable. The two guys up front are capable of making the difference in a one-on-one situation and also have the speed to make the counter-strike a realistic threat. All in all I like the line-up as it is taking shape. This will be a classic.

Argentina Squad Takes Shape for Saturday

It feels like an eternity has passed since the Argentine national team limped out of Asuncion a 1-0 loser last month. Now only 3 days remain until the must-win match against Peru in Buenos Aires. There is mountains of speculation around any international match Argentina plays and it has been even more hectic this time. Today Maradona put together what will likely be the starting 11 for a scrimmage.

Romero

E. Insua Heinze Schiavi Jonas G.

Mascherano Enzo Perez Aimar Di Maria

Messi Higuain

This line up isn't terrible but it is concerning in some areas. Gabriel Heinze has been willing to leave his natural leftback position when asked throughout his career. Unfortunately that has usually resulted in disaster for his team at both club and international level. Against Paraguay he looked out of his element in the middle of the defense, although he did make a superhuman effort to stop a late insurance goal on a Paraguayan counterattack. Next to him will be Rolando Schiavi, closer to 40 than 30, making his second (2nd) appearance for the national team. This duo doesn't fill me with confidence, especially considering center-halfs like Nico Parejo and Martin Demichelis are in the squad. But at the end of the day if Argentina can't get the job done against Peru at home, the deciding factor will probably not be the central defense.

As far as Jonas playing rightback, I think that is a very flexible rightback, kind of like Dani Alves at Barcelona.

I like Aimar as the 10 and Angel Di Maria is a player I have been very high on going back to his days at Rosario Central. Having him attack wide with the possibility of seeing Jonas bomb forward on the opposite side of the field with the two strikers between them I think is a better approach than a line of 3 forwards like Argentina have used in recent qualifiers.

And as for the strikers, the position that has been the biggest source of contention with this team. Higuain as the 9 and Messi doing what he does alongside him. I like this pairing because they complement each other and because pound for pound I think they are best two available players for those positions.

This is a pretty good place to start from. If Peru clam up and park the bus as most expect them to, the Aimar-Messi partnership might be effective in making quick and short passes with other players making runs alongside them. If at first Peru come out to play, Argentina will have the players to stretch the field with. I can not overstate the importance of having a true 9 out there that adds an air dimension to the attack.

Match Day 2 Day 2 (whoa!)

Another thing about the Inter-Rubin Kazan game yesterday: I had predicted Balotelli would be sent off against Barcelona but he only played like 10 minutes, so the fact he got sent off in the first CL game he started sort of makes me feel validated.

What I take away from today's games is how bad AC Milan and Atletico Madrid really are. I thought Milan would get a result at home but when I saw the game end 1-0 I didn't blink an eye. They are an old team with holes all over the park and a manager in way over his head (and I will admit I am surprised by this I thought Leonardo was prepared to make the leap). This is now 3 straight games were they have been outplayed by what should be inferior competition. AC Milan are unlike many other Italian teams in that they generally allow a manager time to find his footing. In 99% of other Italian clubs Leonardo would be looking at a must-win this weekend, but if the organization believes in him, and it seems like they do, he is probably going to get a chance to right the ship. That said they are zero percent of a threat at either League or Europe.

Atletico Madrid might be the shallowest big club in Europe. The professionals on their roster don't reach 20 and there is no sign of a willingness or ability to change this at window. Although the defense does look a bit better than last year there are major concerns in midfield and the overall managing of the ball over the course of 90 minutes. It can not be overstated how much better this team looks from afar do the individual skill and magic of Forlan and Aguero. In all honesty they should have finished mid-table last season. But with a spot in the CL come expectations and that makes us all shake our heads every time Atletico play. They had to make a GK switch when Roberto got hurt which makes a bad situation worse. Fortunately for them Sergio Asenjo, their real number 1 and one of the hottest young goalies in Europe, will return from the U-20 World Cup soon, although it may be too late.

Fantasy Failure

I should have posted a million things before this, but I didn't. Whatevs bra', I am oves. Anyway... there is still the second day of matches but this round of Champions League fantasy has not gone well for pitch itchey. Guys I dropped at the last minute include Stevan Jovetic (2 goals against Liverpool) and Pedrito (scored against Dinamo). I also thought about adding Chori Dominguez but didn't and he put one in against Inter. Speaking of Inter, I made Diego Milito my captain which was not a resounding triumph.

On the bright side, maybe, I have Diego Forlan and Radamel Falcao going tomorrow. That game could end 4-4 or something along those lines.

I Will Take the Point

The clash of champions at San Siro ended in a goal-less draw and I am totally 100 percent okay with that. To be fair Barcelona had the better of the play and could have won, but they didn't. So there. It speaks to just how good they really are that the 4 time defending champion of Italy would clam up for 90 minutes and outright play for the tie at home. Balotelli only played 5 minutes at the end and kept himself out of the referee's book which is a good thing.

The rest of the matches went pretty much as you would expect. When someone tells me the group phase of the Champions League is boring and/or unwatchable I disagree and try to make the case for it, but eventually I am forced to admit it is a bit tedious. The one result that caught me a little by surprise was Rangers getting a point away to Stuttgart. I don't think this Rangers team is that good and will probably finish third behind Stuts and Sevilla.

Champs, Bra'

Been a hectic few days and haven't been able to post. Too bad because there has been some interseting stuff going on. Anyway, no real surprises today in Champions League. United ground out a win in a tough place to play, Real Madrid and Bayern stomped on minnows, Atletico showed their slump is not confined to domestic opposition, the absence of Diego and Felipe Melo proved that Juve's hot start is mainly because of them, and Chelsea rarely lose at home.

I am pretty excited/nervous about the Inter-Barcelona game tomorrow. I will be at work during the game and am not sure if I can resist checking the score and waiting to watch the whole thing when I get home (I probably can't hold out), but it is too early in the competition to skip out of work early. Here are two predictions I have: If Inter come out in a 4-3-3, Barcelona win. If Balotelli plays he earns himself at least a yellow.

Tough Times

Turns out I was fortunate not to watch the Argentina-Brazil game live. What a buzzkiller for Labor Day Weekend. I really expected Argentina to come up with a victory and the 3-1 loss stings. The one thing that made me nervous going in was the inexperience of the central defense and that was what cost them. 2 set piece goals in the first half which are attributable to shoddy marking changed the shape of the game.

It is unfair to say the outcome would have been different under the leadership of another manager but it is undeniable that Maradona has hurt this team more than he has helped. With this latest result he has 2 wins and 3 losses in qualifying, a dismal record, and that includes an unforgettable humiliation in La Paz and this latest sour defeat to Brazil at home. At times it really seems like he doesn't understand what a national team manager does at the elite level. Almost like he thinks if he picks 11 players he likes and pats them on the back they can go out and beat anyone because the mighty Maradona believes in them. That is not the way it works. They were beaten by a Brazilian team that has continuity and identity. On top of that they had efficient execution of set pieces and clearly established ideas of how to play the game. Up against 11 players who were just out there to play, depending on the emotional charge of wearing the national team shirt to carry them through, the Brazilian superiority was never in question.

In less than 24 hours Argentina will play what is now the biggest game of the campaign to date, away to Paraguay. For all the stumbles of the Maradona era a win in Asuncion would put them within striking distance of a spot in South Africa. I hope the days since the defeat in Rosario were enough to study the opponent, fix what was wrong, and prepare for this match. Four changes have been made to the squad that started Saturday's game. Tomorrow night Argentina's 11 will be:

Sergio Romero (in for Andujar)

Emiliano Papa (for Otamendi), Heinze, Dominguez, Zanetti

Gago (for Maxi Rodriguez), Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Aguero (for Tevez)


I am hoping for the best but to be candid this line-up screams out wait and see. Papa is a good player who can perform at this level but sliding Heinze into central defense to make room for him might not be such an awesome idea. His adventures in that alternate position are well chronicled. This incarnation of the midfield I think will do well. If there was a bright spot on Saturday it was Jesus Datolo, and with Gago in for Maxi I think there is some balance in the middle. Aguero for Tevez is not exactly like for like but it does not give the attack a radically different identity. That an offense featuring those two players plus Lionel Messi has only mustered three goals in the last four competitive games should send up red flags. It is crying out for something new. This would be a great place to try Messi alongside a true 9, either Milito or Lopez, like many have been suggesting for months.

On the other side of the equation there is cause for concern as well. Although Paraguay have looked wobbly in the last several qualifying matches they are still in a commanding position vis-a-vis Argentina. Tata Martino is a very good manager and he knows that a draw is a very comfortable result for his side. He also knows Argentina are coming in desperate and with something to prove. Given this I am sure he has spent the last few days building a safe and sturdy if boring counter-attacking game plan.

I am hoping for the best but doing so with the unfamiliar feeling that Argentina don't walk on the field with the inherent advantage I have come to expect.

The Clasico of Clasicos

It is almost here. Tomorrow night, Argentina vs. Brazil. This is probably my favorite match up ever. I have a lot of memories of the South American clasico. Some good, some bad, but it is always a great experience. Unfortunately I am going to be traveling and will be relegated to streaming the game if anything.

This particular edition has a lot of interesting subplots. Maradona vs. Dunga 19 years after the famous game from Italia 90, Messi vs. Kaka, the importance it has re WCQ, the change of venue to Rosario, the peculiar mix of players Maradona has called into the squad, the return of Adriano to the Brazilian national team.

I don't think the Brazilian team sheet has been released yet but Argentina will line up in a 4-4-2:

Andjuar

Heinze, Otamendi, Seba Dominguez, Zanetti

Maxi Rodriguez, Mascherano, Veron, Datolo

Messi, Tevez


There are a few question marks with this formation but all in all I think if the players execute Argentina will be fine. In central defense are two players who have never played club football in Europe and have 2 caps between them. That is the bad. The good is that they make up the tandem at Velez Sarsfield, the defending Argentine champions, and were responsible for the league's lowest goals against last term. To be fair Maradona called Otamendi into the squad early on and raised some eyebrows but had his vision vindicated when he came to dominate the first division last year. With Demichelis injured and Coloccini in poor form (he probably shouldn't have even been called to the squad in my opinion) Maradona didn't have many other choices but going with such a green central defense still makes me a bit nervous.

The injury to Jonas Gutierrez is more of a blow than many people thing. In the game in Brazil he was key in shutting down Maicon. This Brazilian team uses the attacking right-back as a key to their offense and Jonas is the perfect player to neutralize that. The job will now fall to Maxi Rodriguez who is a good player but not as specialized in that area.

I continue to think the national team needs a number 9 up front and the Messi-Tevez combo does not strike me as the best option when there are guys like Milito and Licha Lopez to choose from. Still, those two are more than capable of changing a game in flash and over the course of 90 minutes I suspect they will have chance to do so. What I like in this set up is the more narrow look of the team going forward may allow for more coherent linkage between Veron, who will be the 10, and the strikers. In the 4-3-3 they used against Colombia the team was spread to thin for the Veron-Messi partnership to be much of a threat and the opposing defenders snuffed out any danger far from goal.

I like Argentina's options of the bench but Brazil has probably as many weapons to choose from. In addition I think Dunga is a very, very good in-game manager and despite all of Maradona's experience and knowledge he is still new to coaching. For Argentina to win it is imperative that the players on the field beat their men one on one.

My prediction is Argentina 2-0 Brazil.

That. Just. Happened. (yesterday)

Busy weekend in the world of football. Unfortunately (or more likely, fortunately) I had a lot going on and didn't catch all the games I wanted to. In fact the only game I saw start to finish was the Milan derby. Hahahahaha. Inter destroyed 4-0. Milito looked superb and Eto'o and Sneijder also impressed me. After that display I can brush aside the worries that sprung up with the draw to Bari last week. Even before Gattuso got sent off I thought Milan looked stale. Still very early but it is nice to win that game. And on that point, why is it the second match of the season? Poor planning in my opinion.

Real Madrid ground out a 3-2 win at home over Depor. I am not impressed. El Graciento put in a penalty but looked very mediocre other than that. Most of the new signings played and I wouldn't say they looked bad but this is not the invisible elite team being played up in the Spanish media.

River Plate got a 4-3 win at home over Chacarita. I am happy on the one hand but kind of terrified at the thought I wasn't sure they would get it. This team is really on thin ice and although I haven't blogged much about them it bums me out. I don't think the parade of washed up old-timers are going to do the trick. On any given day one of them can shine, turn back the clock, and make the fans believe like Ortega did today but realistically this is a losing formula. Ortega, Gallardo, and Almeyda were heroes a decade ago at a team that values history and tradition but the current Argentine game is fast and competitive and technical. Too much for them to be the driving engines of a successful side.

Champions Group

After posting about how unfair it would be for Inter to draw a heavyweight despite winning Serie A they got put in a group with Barcelona. Good work UEFA. This group is the only one of the 8 to be comprised entirely of current champions as Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev are the current title holders in Russia and the Ukraine respectively. Sourness over not being a 1 seed aside I don't think this group is that bad for Inter. The two lower seeds are not exactly giant killers and they will not be playing away at either place late in the year when the temperature and weather can be a factor. Also, the second Barca game, the one at Camp Nou, is on the Tuesday before Barcelona's superclasico against Real Madrid. If things break Inter's way (Barca has sewn up a spot in the round of 16, they are head to head with RM, there is pressure to win that game, etc) it is conceivable they don't get the full force of Barcelona's A-team on their visit to Cataluna. We will see.

On the Eve of the Draw

The play-in round is over without any major surprises and tomorrow the groups for the 2009-10 Champions League will be determined. The Goal.com link above has a pretty good break down of the way it works. The wizards over at UEFA have the 32 teams broken down into 4 "pots", each group being comprised of a team from each pot with no two teams from the same country sharing a group.

The reason this system is stupid and dumb and should make anyone associated with it blush, apologize, and resign is the insane methodology used in assigning rank to the teams. Just one example: AC Milan did not qualify for last year's CL and finished second in Serie A are in pot 1. Meanwhile city rivals Inter Milan made into the final 16 last year and also won their domestic league, but are in pot 2. I don't care what kind of obscure computation models are used to determine UEFA coefficient, this is proof the system is faulty.

Here is another example: Bundesliga champions VfL Wolfsburg are not a 1 seed or a 2 seed. They are not even a 3 seed. They sit comfortably atop pot 4 where they are waiting to be picked for what will be the most brutal group of death in recent memory. How the team that wins one of the big (even if not elite elite) leagues in Europe is given such a low ranking is a mystery.

I am a little bitter that Inter are in pot 2 but really the drawing is one of the markers that signals the European season is in gear so that is pretty cool. For fun, my ideal group for Inter is as follows: Sevilla, Olympiakos, FC Zurich.

In sort of related news AS is reporting that Wes Sneijder has relented and agreed to leave Real Madrid for Inter for 15 million Euros. Real virtually threw him out the door and I am not super stoked about him coming over. Not bummed either but it just feels like he will be a glorified role-player in what is an already established team.

I am sure I will be back tomorrow with plenty to say.

All Alone-So

Due to reasons of AC malfunction I happened to be home early from work and catch the Liverpool-Aston Villa game. It is the second time I have seen LFC play this season and for the second time they looked like a team well below their top 4 pedigree. When a team suffers a 3-1 loss at home there are many culprits but the one glaring weakness in this squad is the hole left by Xabi Alonso's departure for Real Madrid. Lucas Leiva has been in his place for now and he is horrible. I know he has had strong moments in the past and being a Brazilian international is not something that happens by accident, but today he looked miserable. The own goal was bad, but even if that were stricken from the record he gave the ball away needlessly more than once, won barely any balls in the midfield, and was unable to start anything even relatively productive going in the other direction. Javier Mascherano looked pretty good at times, breaking up plays that could have resulted in Villa goals, but having Leiva next to him just shows how much Alonso was worth as his partner in the middle of the park.

I know Alberto Aquilani is likely to assume the spot when he heals from injury but even then Alonso's absence will haunt Liverpool. It is too bad for them because the rest of the big 4 seem to have come back to earth a bit (on paper anyway) and the rest of the Liverpool team is pretty solid. They might lack depth but they can put out a solid squad.

Open Up and Say Serie Ahhhhhhh!!!!

So we are on the eve of the 2009-10 season in Italy. It kind of snuck up on me. Seems like only yesterday I bailed on making the drive up to Boston for the Inter-AC game in favor of the Gold Cup Final at Giants Stadium (smooth move), and now the real action is here. Aside from being an Inter supporter I genuinely love Serie A. Unfortunately... I don't see there being much new and exciting stuff this season in the world of calcio. Inter will defend the crown. I believe an improved Juve will finish second. AC Milan will be weaker than last season but still between 3 and 5 at the end of the season. Fiorentina, Genoa, Lazio, Napoli and maybe one or two other respectable teams will scramble for European places. Roma will continue to fade.

Thoughts on Players
Felipe Melo I think will continue to develop and claim his place as one of the top defensive midfielders in the world.

Not much of a prediction but I think Huntelaar will DESTROY in Serie A. He is well over a goal per game for his career and scored more than could have been expected in the occasional game he got at Real Madrid. He is lethal with one touch and will probably challenge for capocannonnieri this season.

Javier Pastore moved from Argentina's Huracan to Palermo and I could see him taking Italy by storm. He is a tall, quick, and agile play-making midfielder with a precocious mind and eye for the game. If he makes the transition smoothly he has an elite finisher for his passes in Fabrizio Miccoli and the two could make for a devastating combination. If Pastore is on maybe Palermo make a bid for Champions League football.

Play In Wednesday

As I predicted Lyon won at home, although I thought Anderlecht would give them a game instead of folding 5-1. And Atletico Madrid got a 3-2 win at Pana, which I predicted as well. I was able to catch most of that game and it was pretty interesting. Atletico have some lapses in defense and it cost them twice, but in the attack they are extremely dangerous. Forlan and Aguero's goals showed what makes elite strikers elite. Although the home team made a valiant effort to fight back and got within a goal, this series is over. Not just having to win in Madrid against a superior team but having conceded 3 goals at home make it essentially impossible.

This is the first season the Champions League is being seen on Fox Soccer Channel (here in America) instead of ESPN. This is both good and bad. The good is a more comprehensive coverage package with pre and post games and a nightly highlight show. The commentators are very good as well. Although there were some good guys calling the games on ESPN the harmless but insufferable Tommy Smyth will not be missed by Pitch Itchy. The bad is the lower profile the tournament will have stateside on its new home. The core soccer fan will not think twice about this but for the casual fan or the curious potential fan (of which there are many after the eventful summer of soccer in America) the likelihood of stumbling on a Champions League game on FSC while flipping channels and being drawn in are significantly less than they were when it was on ESPN. Also, and this is pretty big for me, most bars and restaurants constantly have a TV locked on ESPN, making it easy to duck out of work and catch a game under the guise of a "late lunch" then return to work. Many of these places have super-duper TV packages and if you pester the bartender enough you are probably going to get to see the game, but it is not as accessible as ESPN.

Whatever, that is all minor detail stuff. The 2009-2010 season is here!

Play-In Round

Today saw the first leg in 5 of the 10 play-in match ups for the Champion's League. The new format is a little different than in previous years with an additional qualifying round (the point the tournament is at currently) and some reconfiguring to in theory give clubs from smaller countries more of a chance. Whereas in the past all teams that didn't qualify directly were "thrown into the hat" and drew an opponent at random, from now on clubs that win their domestic league's title will be paired up with champions from other countries. Obviously the title holders from the big nations have earned direct entry to the group stage so this results in pairings of little known teams that have won leagues mostly in Eastern Europe. It also means that some heavyweights will be drawn together and one of them will miss out on the big dance. Arsenal-Celtic is one example. Under the previous system Celtic may have played Sheriff Tiraspol instead and more than likely stomped them. But now, after a 2-0 loss at home, they look likely to be in the inaugural Europa League instead of with the big boys.

Is this good or bad? I am not really sure. All in all I think I am okay with it for two reasons. 1, everyone loves a Cinderella story and this will give more teams a chance to fill that role. 2, I have always liked the idea that these kind of tournaments be for champions and runners-up. Ensuring that at least 5 champions that did not qualify directly are also included in the group stage is a good idea.

But the truth is that the gap between the haves and have nots is so big (and likely to remain that way) that what this system does is water down the competition in the group stages. The third and fourth best teams in Spain, France, and England are light years ahead of the best teams in Macedonia, Israel, and Lithuania.

Take a look at today's results. Arsenal, Stuttgart, and Olympiacos all got 2-0 wins on the road. Fiorentina are going home from Lisbon with a useful 2-2 draw. It is a tiny sample size, yes, but today illustrates the difference between the Europe's elite teams and it's good ones.

Tomorrow's Lyon-Anderlecht game could be interesting although I think the French will win at home. I also think Atletico will win away in Greece.