For the second time in a week Sevilla was knocked out of a competition by an aggregate score of 5-3. But the embarrassing loss in Andalucia looks light years worse than the drubbing they took at Camp Nou over the weekend. The 4-3 loss at the hands of an inferior Braga side could have very real consequences for Sevilla.
While taking a 3-1 lead into the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup and then watching it nullified as Sevilla was torn to shreds by Barcelona must have stung, there really wasn't much more than bragging rights at stake. The Spanish Super Cup is essentially a one-off trophy for the purpose of bragging rights and start of the season festivity. It is not at the top of any teams history and winning it does not come with any tangible benefits for the season. And besides, Barcelona are arguably the best team in the world and there aren't many teams that could have withstood the battering they laid on Sevilla.
Missing out on the Champions League at the hands of Braga is a different story altogether. When Manolo Jimenez was shown the door last spring after three years on the job it was strongly rumored to have been because the club could not afford to miss the CL in 2010-2011 and it really did not look like they were going to make a serious run for a top four finish. This is not meant in the casual or figurative sense like "we can't afford to keep losing", but literally, in the sense the club has serious financial commitments it is hazardously close to not meeting. Antonio Alvarez did a great job of salvaging the domestic campaign and brought home the Copa del Rey as an encore. But that could be irrelevant in the very near future after they got bumped from the premiere European competition. As of now the club is saying it is not the time to make a change, and it makes sense to let tempers cool. But when a clearly more talented team with more experience and resources loses both legs of a play-off, something will likely change.
The reason I am interested in this beyond the mild shock of seeing a Champions League neophyte knock off a side we have come to regard as solid and professional, is because a possible firesale in Sevilla could change the dynamic of other races in Europe. Over the summer Madrid openly courted Jesus Navas and appears to have been rebuffed under the premise that Sevilla needed him to get into the group stage, or possibly further. Now he is cup tied and his usefulness to a team like Real Madrid is limited. The same can be said for Luis Fabiano who was linked to a big money move to Marsielle (which seemed suspicous to me but apparently there was some truth to it), if a big offer comes in he could still move but teams that can afford those kinds of players are generally fighting on multiple fronts. This squad is loaded with other good players that could be missing pieces somewhere. Guys like Diego Capel, Perotti, Negredo, and Kanoute. That might be the silver lining if Sevilla's financial situation is indeed dire: they have devalued their chips in a failed gamble, but still have enough of them to soften the blow.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
Internazionale 2010-2011
Inter begins the Benitez era tomorrow when they face Roma for the Supercoppa. I was a big fan of Mourinho and was sad to see him go, but there is a lot of hope for this season. There are six potential trophies on the line and Inter could join Barcelona as the only team to lay claim to a Hexachampionship.
Over the last few days I have been thinking about how things have changed, as a fan of the club, during recent years. My first memories are of the late 80s/early 90s teams. Most of the Italian football I watched at the time was on the RAI Italian channel in northern New Jersey. It was something in those dark days for football in the USA but in a good season you got maybe 12 games. Now every game is available and you can follow the team as much or as little as you like and be very much in the loop.
I have vague memories of that league title when Serie A was unarguably the elite league in Europe. But for more than a decade and a half after that Inter was a solid and respectable team but not a powerhouse like AC Milan, Real Madrid, or Juventus. The 2006 title felt strange and not altogether real as it was awarded in the courts. There was a sense of the inevitable when they won it again the next year with a depleted league due to the match fixing scandal. By the time they claimed legitimate titles in 2008, 2009, and 2010 it somehow felt old hat. And looking back that is a very strange dynamic. Being title starved for most of the years I supported the team, missing the true euphoria of getting there, and then having it feel old and worn.
Winning the Champions League in May was special and the way in which the team did it (beating Chelsea and Barcelona then having announce to the world they were going to win and never having the outcome of the final in doubt) was a great moment. I remember thinking the treble might be the apex of my time as an Inter supporter, and I am okay with that. What feels a little bizarre is that Inter has become a legitimate European superpower but have done so seemingly through a warp zone. To make a premiership comparison it might be like Spurs being where United in five years. I am glad they are winning enough where it is not treated as a rarity, it is just strange.
Over the last few days I have been thinking about how things have changed, as a fan of the club, during recent years. My first memories are of the late 80s/early 90s teams. Most of the Italian football I watched at the time was on the RAI Italian channel in northern New Jersey. It was something in those dark days for football in the USA but in a good season you got maybe 12 games. Now every game is available and you can follow the team as much or as little as you like and be very much in the loop.
I have vague memories of that league title when Serie A was unarguably the elite league in Europe. But for more than a decade and a half after that Inter was a solid and respectable team but not a powerhouse like AC Milan, Real Madrid, or Juventus. The 2006 title felt strange and not altogether real as it was awarded in the courts. There was a sense of the inevitable when they won it again the next year with a depleted league due to the match fixing scandal. By the time they claimed legitimate titles in 2008, 2009, and 2010 it somehow felt old hat. And looking back that is a very strange dynamic. Being title starved for most of the years I supported the team, missing the true euphoria of getting there, and then having it feel old and worn.
Winning the Champions League in May was special and the way in which the team did it (beating Chelsea and Barcelona then having announce to the world they were going to win and never having the outcome of the final in doubt) was a great moment. I remember thinking the treble might be the apex of my time as an Inter supporter, and I am okay with that. What feels a little bizarre is that Inter has become a legitimate European superpower but have done so seemingly through a warp zone. To make a premiership comparison it might be like Spurs being where United in five years. I am glad they are winning enough where it is not treated as a rarity, it is just strange.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Internacional New Champions
For the fourth year in a row a Brazilian team made it to the Copa Libertadores final. For the fourth year in a row they had the second leg at home. But for the first time in those four years they actually lifted the trophy. Internacional beat Chivas 3-2 for a 5-3 aggregate win. As in the first leg Inter were the far (and I mean like FAR) superior side. The scoreline was charitable to the visitors. Nearly without exception Inter's bouts of possession were filled with purpose, creativity, and ideas. For much of the game Chivas looked content with not losing the ball in a dangerous area and pumping it forward blindly. I will admit Chivas' first goal was a highlight reel worthy thing of beauty, but over the 90 minutes they didn't belong on the same field.
Arellano's late two-footed mugging of Andres D'Alessandro near the end brought a deserved straight red. Terrible, terrible tackle.
A few random thoughts:
This is the first time I can remember rooting for a Brazilian team of any kind at club or country level. The manifest lunacy of allowing Chivas to skip qualification AND the group stage and start in the knockout rounds is something that angers me to a level I can not put into words.
I wonder if Internacional de Porto Alegre realize their initials are I.P.A.? They should use that as a moniker, if the abbreviation flies in Portuguese.
There is a good chance (let's be honest it is nearly inevitable) that Internazionale will play Internacional for the Club World Cup this coming December. Whoa! Inter v Inter. Spy v Spy. Argentines and Brazilians v Argentines and Brazilians.
I know it was probably logistically impossible but having the semis and the final after the world cup really killed the stoke for me this time. I usually love the Copa Lib but that is something they should really try to avoid. I am aware it has happened before but I still think it sucks.
That is all.
Arellano's late two-footed mugging of Andres D'Alessandro near the end brought a deserved straight red. Terrible, terrible tackle.
A few random thoughts:
This is the first time I can remember rooting for a Brazilian team of any kind at club or country level. The manifest lunacy of allowing Chivas to skip qualification AND the group stage and start in the knockout rounds is something that angers me to a level I can not put into words.
I wonder if Internacional de Porto Alegre realize their initials are I.P.A.? They should use that as a moniker, if the abbreviation flies in Portuguese.
There is a good chance (let's be honest it is nearly inevitable) that Internazionale will play Internacional for the Club World Cup this coming December. Whoa! Inter v Inter. Spy v Spy. Argentines and Brazilians v Argentines and Brazilians.
I know it was probably logistically impossible but having the semis and the final after the world cup really killed the stoke for me this time. I usually love the Copa Lib but that is something they should really try to avoid. I am aware it has happened before but I still think it sucks.
That is all.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Ready, Set, Prem!
The Community Shield is behind us, less than three weeks remain in the transfer window, and tomorrow the Premiership returns! Last year we saw a more competitive league at the high end of table than in recent years and I suspect the same is in store for 2010-2011. There will be interesting story lines throughout the season and I believe relegation, European qualification, and the title will all go down to the last round or two. Here are some random thoughts/predictions of mine as we sit on the brink of the new season:
Chelsea won't repeat-
Despite not clinching the title until the last match of the season Chelsea were clearly deserved champions. Against the rest of the "big 4" they were a combined 6-0 with an impressive goal differential. They also set a single season goal record. And yet I think they will relinquish the crown this year. Joe Cole and Michael Ballack's exits were relatively minor and the acquisition of Ramires and Yossi Benayoun along with a return to fitness of Michael Essien may well cancel them out. A more problematic personnel move is the late departure of Ricardo Carvalho for Real Madrid. This leaves Chelsea's central defense exposed. John Terry is not the player he was even two years ago, Alex has yet to prove himself a 38 games a year defender, and there does not appear to be much depth. Ivanovic is probably the best of the backline at Stamford Bridge.
But title runs have been made with similar defenses. The real reasons I think Chelsea will have a very hard time repeating are A, priorities, and B, age. They just won their 3rd Premiership title in 6 seasons but have never won the Champions League/European Cup. Chelsea supporters and ownership alike have their sights set on that title and given they have demonstrated their domestic power over the last half dozen years it would make sense for the focus to be on Europe. Add to that Ancelotti's proven success in the Champions League and the feeling he was brought in more or less with that goal in mind and the priorities seem evident.
Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, and Terry are among the players over 30 on the roster. It is always tough to say at what point exactly a player's career passes its peak and begins to its descent but I have a feeling for at least some of these guys that point is dangerously close. Consider that on top of the 4 fronts the squad is fighting on Chelsea had more players at the World Cup than any other club in Europe. Didier Drogba, the prem's golden boot last season, has had two unrelated surgeries since lifting the trophy in May and also played not one but two international tournaments since New Year's. The demonstrated drop in quality from Terry and Anelka over the last year can not be ignored.
Chelsea are still one of the best teams in England and could well left one or more trophies this coming season. I just don't think they have the depth, fitness, and ability to go through the grueling 38 match season and come out on top.
How Good is Rooney, Does it Matter?
Wayne Rooney was head and shoulders above the rest of the league last season. Can he do it again? Everyone knows he led United in goals and the club's second highest source of offense was opposition's own goals. They have had a modest off-season and although Javier Hernandez and Tom Cleverly looked good in pre-season this squad is not nearly as talented as the Rooney-Ronaldo-Tevez version that won the double a few years back. So the big questions are can Wayne Rooney repeat what he did last season? And if not, are there other guys in the team that can pick up his slack? I tend to think the answer to both questions is no, but we will see.
Beware the Citizens-
I am going to go out on a limb and pick Manchester City to win the Premiership this season. They made a marked improvement last season and despite coming up just short of the Champions League have returned to a place they have not been in many, many years. With much of the same squad in tact and the continuation of Mancini I like their chances. What it really comes down to is that Manchester City have the talent, resources, and schedule in their favor.
A team with a play money budget like City will always be the focus of rumors but even the Balotelli (potentially volatile) signing is their last I don't think an objective look at their roster can say they are second best to anyone in the Prem. Two solid goalkeepers, an improved backline with an attacking option at fullback, a deep and talented midfield, and a strike corps that can score in different ways. And if anything is missing they can always go shopping again in January.
What I think may well be the difference maker is a combination between the new (and stupid) 25-man rule and City's priorities. Missing out on the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise. Where Chelsea will make that their number one goal, City is free to focus on the domestic title. No one will begrudge an alternative line-up for a Europa League match, and although the FA Cup is important, if a match in February has to be sacrificed to ensure the best shot at winning a key league game most City supporters will understand. The new squad restrictions will force teams to make decisions and sacrifices they are not used to. If Mancini handles it properly it will be to his team's advantage.
Newcomers-
I think Mauro Boselli will have a good first season at Wigan. The sale of Jason Scottland indicates Roberto Martinez is content with him and Hugo Rodallega as the primary options up front. I have seen him play a lot for Estudiantes and think he is coming in a little under the radar. Very technically gifted. Maybe a bit on the small side for the Premiership but very intelligent player and lethal with both feet as well as in the air. 12 goals or so I think is realistic.
The other new guy I see putting in a lot of goal is Maroune Chamahk. I know this won't be a surprise but for a guy whose name was thrown around so much last year his move to the Emirates was surprisingly quiet. And coming in he doesn't seem to be getting too much attention. Having him up top gives Arsenal something they have lacked for years aside from the occasional streak when Bendtner gets hot. With Cesc staying for at least one more season I think Chamakh will hit the ground running.
Breakout-
Daniel Sturridge at Chelsea. Gifted and able young striker in an aging group of attack players. He probably wont be first choice but will get plenty of opportunities.
Relegation-
Predicting failure and ruin is not really fun but I think Wolves, Blackpool, and West Brom will be in the Championship next year.
Intriguing Situation-
Who is in goal for Manchester City? Joe Hart and Shay Given are probably both in the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premiership and they happen to be on the same team. Who gets the job? Does the other guy go on loan? Very interesting as the month goes on.
Spurs-
I think will make it out of the group stage of the Champions League. I am not a Spurs supporter but I have a soft spot for this group and wish them well.
Chelsea won't repeat-
Despite not clinching the title until the last match of the season Chelsea were clearly deserved champions. Against the rest of the "big 4" they were a combined 6-0 with an impressive goal differential. They also set a single season goal record. And yet I think they will relinquish the crown this year. Joe Cole and Michael Ballack's exits were relatively minor and the acquisition of Ramires and Yossi Benayoun along with a return to fitness of Michael Essien may well cancel them out. A more problematic personnel move is the late departure of Ricardo Carvalho for Real Madrid. This leaves Chelsea's central defense exposed. John Terry is not the player he was even two years ago, Alex has yet to prove himself a 38 games a year defender, and there does not appear to be much depth. Ivanovic is probably the best of the backline at Stamford Bridge.
But title runs have been made with similar defenses. The real reasons I think Chelsea will have a very hard time repeating are A, priorities, and B, age. They just won their 3rd Premiership title in 6 seasons but have never won the Champions League/European Cup. Chelsea supporters and ownership alike have their sights set on that title and given they have demonstrated their domestic power over the last half dozen years it would make sense for the focus to be on Europe. Add to that Ancelotti's proven success in the Champions League and the feeling he was brought in more or less with that goal in mind and the priorities seem evident.
Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, and Terry are among the players over 30 on the roster. It is always tough to say at what point exactly a player's career passes its peak and begins to its descent but I have a feeling for at least some of these guys that point is dangerously close. Consider that on top of the 4 fronts the squad is fighting on Chelsea had more players at the World Cup than any other club in Europe. Didier Drogba, the prem's golden boot last season, has had two unrelated surgeries since lifting the trophy in May and also played not one but two international tournaments since New Year's. The demonstrated drop in quality from Terry and Anelka over the last year can not be ignored.
Chelsea are still one of the best teams in England and could well left one or more trophies this coming season. I just don't think they have the depth, fitness, and ability to go through the grueling 38 match season and come out on top.
How Good is Rooney, Does it Matter?
Wayne Rooney was head and shoulders above the rest of the league last season. Can he do it again? Everyone knows he led United in goals and the club's second highest source of offense was opposition's own goals. They have had a modest off-season and although Javier Hernandez and Tom Cleverly looked good in pre-season this squad is not nearly as talented as the Rooney-Ronaldo-Tevez version that won the double a few years back. So the big questions are can Wayne Rooney repeat what he did last season? And if not, are there other guys in the team that can pick up his slack? I tend to think the answer to both questions is no, but we will see.
Beware the Citizens-
I am going to go out on a limb and pick Manchester City to win the Premiership this season. They made a marked improvement last season and despite coming up just short of the Champions League have returned to a place they have not been in many, many years. With much of the same squad in tact and the continuation of Mancini I like their chances. What it really comes down to is that Manchester City have the talent, resources, and schedule in their favor.
A team with a play money budget like City will always be the focus of rumors but even the Balotelli (potentially volatile) signing is their last I don't think an objective look at their roster can say they are second best to anyone in the Prem. Two solid goalkeepers, an improved backline with an attacking option at fullback, a deep and talented midfield, and a strike corps that can score in different ways. And if anything is missing they can always go shopping again in January.
What I think may well be the difference maker is a combination between the new (and stupid) 25-man rule and City's priorities. Missing out on the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise. Where Chelsea will make that their number one goal, City is free to focus on the domestic title. No one will begrudge an alternative line-up for a Europa League match, and although the FA Cup is important, if a match in February has to be sacrificed to ensure the best shot at winning a key league game most City supporters will understand. The new squad restrictions will force teams to make decisions and sacrifices they are not used to. If Mancini handles it properly it will be to his team's advantage.
Newcomers-
I think Mauro Boselli will have a good first season at Wigan. The sale of Jason Scottland indicates Roberto Martinez is content with him and Hugo Rodallega as the primary options up front. I have seen him play a lot for Estudiantes and think he is coming in a little under the radar. Very technically gifted. Maybe a bit on the small side for the Premiership but very intelligent player and lethal with both feet as well as in the air. 12 goals or so I think is realistic.
The other new guy I see putting in a lot of goal is Maroune Chamahk. I know this won't be a surprise but for a guy whose name was thrown around so much last year his move to the Emirates was surprisingly quiet. And coming in he doesn't seem to be getting too much attention. Having him up top gives Arsenal something they have lacked for years aside from the occasional streak when Bendtner gets hot. With Cesc staying for at least one more season I think Chamakh will hit the ground running.
Breakout-
Daniel Sturridge at Chelsea. Gifted and able young striker in an aging group of attack players. He probably wont be first choice but will get plenty of opportunities.
Relegation-
Predicting failure and ruin is not really fun but I think Wolves, Blackpool, and West Brom will be in the Championship next year.
Intriguing Situation-
Who is in goal for Manchester City? Joe Hart and Shay Given are probably both in the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premiership and they happen to be on the same team. Who gets the job? Does the other guy go on loan? Very interesting as the month goes on.
Spurs-
I think will make it out of the group stage of the Champions League. I am not a Spurs supporter but I have a soft spot for this group and wish them well.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
First Half of Quarters... so huh?
Two big ones tomorrow. Hopefully I will be able to duck out of work around 11 and catch the second half of the Netherlands vs Brazil game then the whole afternoon game. What I think may happen:
Netherlands vs Brazil-
One of the handful of games we get in every World Cup that get the "this could be the final" tag stamped on it. And rightly so. A terrifyingly efficient and sound Brazilian side that has shown when it is necessary can still be Brazilian. Much more defense and counter than we are used to but only a fool would discount them as serious contenders. This Dutch team is the best of what we have grown to expect from them. They employ a range of tactics and systems but overwhelmingly these are designed to attack. It can be said they arrive at a South American style through European planning.
I am going to side with the Netherlands on this one, which might be a bit of an upset although not much. I foresee a high scoring game with the final score in the 3-2 neighborhood. The difference maker for me is the spontaniety of Arjen Robben. With Brazil's center-halves as solid a pair as can be found in this tournament an attack consisting of the effective yet known industry of Snjeider and Kuyt supporting RVP would probably be contained. But with Robben who has a seemingly endless bag of tricks jumping in to join those three players the Dutch have a dangerous set of options. His ability to run up the right side then cut in and put dangerous shots on goal from 25+ yards will be key. To be fair Holland's defense is a question but this Brazilian team does not push the issue for 90 minutes the way most of the previous incarnations have. That is okay against North Korea and Chile, but it might not work this time. The De Jong/Von Bommel duo shielding the backline may be enough to smother the attack, particularly of Holland go up early.
Uruguay vs Ghana-
Kind of a feel-good match up. Ghana are the lone African team in the first WC held on the continent. They came in minus their best player in Michael Essien and had a very difficult group. Uruguay have not been this far in decades and aside from a few guys are not the collection of stars some of the others in the quarter final stage are.
Although there may be intangible factors that push the Black Stars over the top I see Uruguay winning this rather comfortably. Ghana are sound and solid and not a team that beats itself, but they are also limited. Until their 2-1 win over the USA in the round of 16, all their goals had come from penalty kicks. They just don't have the firepower to shake a solid defense. And that is what Uruguay is. Their fullbacks and center-halves are very tight and one thing Uruguay has always been known for is a tenacity in the midfield that makes their job even easier. That can be expected tomorrow. Then there is something that sets this team apart from the Uruguay of the 90s and 2000s: exceptional skill up top. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are two of the most feared strikers in the world. Cavani is perhaps a notch below them but he is incredibly talented and willing to do the work asked of him. As a triad they will test Ghana in ways they have not been tested this entire tournament (including by Germany).
At both ends of the pitch I expect Uruguayan dominance. Their defense will be unimpressed by Ghana's attack and their attack players will impose their will on the Africans. 3-1 or so.
Netherlands vs Brazil-
One of the handful of games we get in every World Cup that get the "this could be the final" tag stamped on it. And rightly so. A terrifyingly efficient and sound Brazilian side that has shown when it is necessary can still be Brazilian. Much more defense and counter than we are used to but only a fool would discount them as serious contenders. This Dutch team is the best of what we have grown to expect from them. They employ a range of tactics and systems but overwhelmingly these are designed to attack. It can be said they arrive at a South American style through European planning.
I am going to side with the Netherlands on this one, which might be a bit of an upset although not much. I foresee a high scoring game with the final score in the 3-2 neighborhood. The difference maker for me is the spontaniety of Arjen Robben. With Brazil's center-halves as solid a pair as can be found in this tournament an attack consisting of the effective yet known industry of Snjeider and Kuyt supporting RVP would probably be contained. But with Robben who has a seemingly endless bag of tricks jumping in to join those three players the Dutch have a dangerous set of options. His ability to run up the right side then cut in and put dangerous shots on goal from 25+ yards will be key. To be fair Holland's defense is a question but this Brazilian team does not push the issue for 90 minutes the way most of the previous incarnations have. That is okay against North Korea and Chile, but it might not work this time. The De Jong/Von Bommel duo shielding the backline may be enough to smother the attack, particularly of Holland go up early.
Uruguay vs Ghana-
Kind of a feel-good match up. Ghana are the lone African team in the first WC held on the continent. They came in minus their best player in Michael Essien and had a very difficult group. Uruguay have not been this far in decades and aside from a few guys are not the collection of stars some of the others in the quarter final stage are.
Although there may be intangible factors that push the Black Stars over the top I see Uruguay winning this rather comfortably. Ghana are sound and solid and not a team that beats itself, but they are also limited. Until their 2-1 win over the USA in the round of 16, all their goals had come from penalty kicks. They just don't have the firepower to shake a solid defense. And that is what Uruguay is. Their fullbacks and center-halves are very tight and one thing Uruguay has always been known for is a tenacity in the midfield that makes their job even easier. That can be expected tomorrow. Then there is something that sets this team apart from the Uruguay of the 90s and 2000s: exceptional skill up top. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are two of the most feared strikers in the world. Cavani is perhaps a notch below them but he is incredibly talented and willing to do the work asked of him. As a triad they will test Ghana in ways they have not been tested this entire tournament (including by Germany).
At both ends of the pitch I expect Uruguayan dominance. Their defense will be unimpressed by Ghana's attack and their attack players will impose their will on the Africans. 3-1 or so.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Two Good Ones Today
So the US went out of the 2010 World Cup in the round of 16 and the journey is over. I (along with anyone who has even casually watched the team over the last few months) said the key was to not concede early... and 5 minutes in three American defenders were unable to contain a basic Ghanian stroll down the center of the park and it was 1-0. The US played well but not great for most of the rest of the game and it was just to pull even on Donovan's penalty in the second half. In my opinion there was not much of a difference between the two teams. The Americans had slightly more quality chances and Ghana probably played a tighter game in the middle of the park by a slim margin. The difference is in the details. Ghana took their goals when opportunities presented themselves and the US didn't. Jozy Altidore I thought was particularly mediocre and it is a shame because some of the guys playing alongside and behind him generated chances that could have changed the outcome. Putting Ricardo Clark in the starting 11 then pulling him off for Maurice Edu in the first half is not Bob Bradley's finest hour either. It was sad to see them go but in a way I am thankful the US went out like that and not on another blown call or by goal difference in the group stage. That could have stifled the momentum of the game in this country.
Two interesting matches today. The first is England vs Germany, two traditional powerhouses of European football. 44 years ago England "won" their only World Cup by beating the Germans in London. Since then international football has been more kind to Germany as they won the title twice and came runners-up another three times while the Three Lions never again reached the championship match. A 1990 semi-final between the two was decided on penalty kicks, and twenty years later here we are. Personally I think England have been one of the real let-downs of the tournament and although this might not be the German machine of the 80s I expect them to win comfortably (on the field if not the scoreboard).
Argentina faced Mexico at this round last time and won a 2-1 overtime thriller on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal. The two teams aren't exactly rivals but there are plenty of storylines. In addition to the Maradona-Messi stuff that comes out whenever Argentina play we have the manager's verbal assault on former Mexican manager Ricardo La Volpe, the inclusion of naturalized Argentine Guille Franco in the Mexican squad, Gio Dos Santos vs Messi, and the fact it is not only a rematch of four years ago but Argentina also thrashed Mexico in a Copa America semi-final in 2007. Mexico have a lot of spirit and they deserve credit for knocking out France and surviving a group stage with the host nation. However the gulf in class here is tremendous and in all likelihood Argentina will take this one by at least two goals. 3-1 sounds about right to me.
Two interesting matches today. The first is England vs Germany, two traditional powerhouses of European football. 44 years ago England "won" their only World Cup by beating the Germans in London. Since then international football has been more kind to Germany as they won the title twice and came runners-up another three times while the Three Lions never again reached the championship match. A 1990 semi-final between the two was decided on penalty kicks, and twenty years later here we are. Personally I think England have been one of the real let-downs of the tournament and although this might not be the German machine of the 80s I expect them to win comfortably (on the field if not the scoreboard).
Argentina faced Mexico at this round last time and won a 2-1 overtime thriller on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal. The two teams aren't exactly rivals but there are plenty of storylines. In addition to the Maradona-Messi stuff that comes out whenever Argentina play we have the manager's verbal assault on former Mexican manager Ricardo La Volpe, the inclusion of naturalized Argentine Guille Franco in the Mexican squad, Gio Dos Santos vs Messi, and the fact it is not only a rematch of four years ago but Argentina also thrashed Mexico in a Copa America semi-final in 2007. Mexico have a lot of spirit and they deserve credit for knocking out France and surviving a group stage with the host nation. However the gulf in class here is tremendous and in all likelihood Argentina will take this one by at least two goals. 3-1 sounds about right to me.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Biggest USA Game Ever, For Now
It is not a stretch to say we are less than twelve hours away from the biggest US national team game ever. And if they win of course that honor will be passed on to the quarter final match. Certain matches have garnered a legacy with the passage of time: 1-0 over England, the Port of Spain qualifier, last year's Confed Cup win over Spain. But this is that rare moment where achievement, expectations, visibility, and excitement come together in one game.
And the USA will be taking on Ghana as the result of... probably the most important goal in the national team's history. If Landon Donovan had not scored in the dying moments against Algeria there was a perfect storm for a soccer backlash in this country just waiting to be unleashed. Despite all the curiosity and interest from casual fans and the never-watched-soccer-before types I am convinced the fervor for the game would have been crushed. The "referees always want the US to lose" "Why doesn't the game end at 90? Wait why doesn't it end after the added time, like on the second?" "I don't understand why a game can end tied..." and don't even breach the topic of the drawing of lots (which to be fair is an absurdity). But all that vanished as Donovan scored a dramatic winner that stoked casual interest even further.
After following most of the game online from my desk at work I took my lunch early around the 60th and went into the cafeteria where I found one casual 50-something woman watching the game. Soon after I sat down other people began to trickle in. By the 80th minute there were probably a dozen people. Many of them were asking basic questions about the game, genuinely interested in answers, and I remember thinking this is probably happening all over the country. How does offsides work, what about substitutions, what if there is a tie, etc. By the time Landon Donovan scored that goal there were at least 25 people (of them maybe 7 real fans of the game previously) packed around the TV urging the team on. Sometimes epic moments recede into nothing as time goes by, but I feel like this might be a watershed moment for this game in the USA.
As for USA vs Ghana: I feel there are two keys to this game for the United States. The first is don't concede early. They did it against England and Slovenia and only the fortune of the crossbar prevented it from happening again in the last group stage match. Add to that the early goals in the friendlies leading up to the tournament and a dangerous vulnerability becomes apparent. Yes they have bounced back against England and Slovenia and that speaks to the grit of the team, but your luck runs out at some point. Going a goal down early in a must win game is not insurmountable but sooner or later the US will be facing a team capable of shutting the game down and dictating terms.
The second is to be patient. This Michael Essien-less Ghana squad suffer from a lack of offense. They tallied a mere two goals during the group stage and both came from spot shots. A team that relies on penalty kicks to get through group play may do it, but they must realize the reality changes once they enter the knock-out round. It would seem the longer the game remains scoreless, or if the USA grabs the lead, the more Ghana will step out of its comfort zone and commit men forward. At that point the USA will begin to have legitimate counterstrike opportunities.
My picks for today: Uruguay 2-0 South Korea. USA 2-1 Ghana.
Enjoy!
And the USA will be taking on Ghana as the result of... probably the most important goal in the national team's history. If Landon Donovan had not scored in the dying moments against Algeria there was a perfect storm for a soccer backlash in this country just waiting to be unleashed. Despite all the curiosity and interest from casual fans and the never-watched-soccer-before types I am convinced the fervor for the game would have been crushed. The "referees always want the US to lose" "Why doesn't the game end at 90? Wait why doesn't it end after the added time, like on the second?" "I don't understand why a game can end tied..." and don't even breach the topic of the drawing of lots (which to be fair is an absurdity). But all that vanished as Donovan scored a dramatic winner that stoked casual interest even further.
After following most of the game online from my desk at work I took my lunch early around the 60th and went into the cafeteria where I found one casual 50-something woman watching the game. Soon after I sat down other people began to trickle in. By the 80th minute there were probably a dozen people. Many of them were asking basic questions about the game, genuinely interested in answers, and I remember thinking this is probably happening all over the country. How does offsides work, what about substitutions, what if there is a tie, etc. By the time Landon Donovan scored that goal there were at least 25 people (of them maybe 7 real fans of the game previously) packed around the TV urging the team on. Sometimes epic moments recede into nothing as time goes by, but I feel like this might be a watershed moment for this game in the USA.
As for USA vs Ghana: I feel there are two keys to this game for the United States. The first is don't concede early. They did it against England and Slovenia and only the fortune of the crossbar prevented it from happening again in the last group stage match. Add to that the early goals in the friendlies leading up to the tournament and a dangerous vulnerability becomes apparent. Yes they have bounced back against England and Slovenia and that speaks to the grit of the team, but your luck runs out at some point. Going a goal down early in a must win game is not insurmountable but sooner or later the US will be facing a team capable of shutting the game down and dictating terms.
The second is to be patient. This Michael Essien-less Ghana squad suffer from a lack of offense. They tallied a mere two goals during the group stage and both came from spot shots. A team that relies on penalty kicks to get through group play may do it, but they must realize the reality changes once they enter the knock-out round. It would seem the longer the game remains scoreless, or if the USA grabs the lead, the more Ghana will step out of its comfort zone and commit men forward. At that point the USA will begin to have legitimate counterstrike opportunities.
My picks for today: Uruguay 2-0 South Korea. USA 2-1 Ghana.
Enjoy!
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Holders Bow Out and Great Game Tomorrow
Italy became only the fourth defending world champion to go out in the group stage after a 3-2 loss to Slovakia. One of the things we've come to expect at international tournaments is for the Italians to start slow, have the whole world say they are old tired and sloppy, barely squeak out of the group, then turn it on and go deep. 99% of the people saying they picked Slovakia to win are full of it. It was stunning to see the Italians go out like that, but in retrospect the team selection before the World Cup and Lippi's tactics in the three games were woeful. I don't think there is an example of a coach getting it so right in one world cup and getting it so wrong the next time around.
The mood around the squad was somber with Lippi fully accepting all the blame for the debacle and Gattuso being being particularly sober in his comments about this being an opportunity to reassess the whole of Italian football. As tough as it must be for Italy to face this at least they are not limping out the way their opponent in the final four years ago is. The French made unqualified fools of themselves in South Africa both on and off the field. 1 point in a group with Mexico, Uruguay, and South Africa is shameful. To send a starting striker home, have the team boycott practice, a starting fullback refuse to play, then have the coach storm off without shaking hands with his counterpart make it perhaps the worst display at a world cup in recent memory.
The good news for these two national teams at a time of sorrow is that the future is actually pretty bright for both of them (or can be at least). They both know who their next manager will be. Laurent Blanc for France and Cesare Prandelli for Italy. Both very competent guys who will add a new element and inject their teams with a sense of change that is desperately needed right now. And, countries are blessed with talented pools of young players that would be a dream in other parts of the world. Although France is probably slightly better positioned for Ukraine-Poland 2012, by the next world cup and the following Euro I suspect Italy will be back amongst the big guns.
Tomorrow pre-tournament favorites Spain play for their lives in the final group stage match against Chile. The Chileans themselves aren't assured of passage despite having won their first two games, so this will be for all the marbles. I am intrigued by this match for many reasons. The stakes, the players, the managers, etc. Despite mediocre results Spain have dominated their opponents and only dismal finishing kept them from three points against Switzerland and a blow-out against Honduras. Will tomorrow be the day the strike force finally clicks, or the day the wasted opportunities send them home? I honestly don't know.
On the other side I can't wait to see how Chile approach this game. The press is reporting that Marcelo Bielsa intends to take on Spain the way they did their previous opponents: with pressure, pace, attack, and in a peculiar 3-3-1-3 formation. This might be true but I will believe it when I see it. Against a Swiss side built on patience and containment that approach made sense, and against a Honduran team hanging on for dear life from the first minute of the first game there really wasn't an option. But against a high possession team with precise passing and a stable of dangerous attackers, being that aggressive might be a suicidal strategy. Add to that the fact that Chile need only a draw to win the group, and the choice Bielsa must make is a monumental one.
Hope it is as good as the build up, then on to the knock-out rounds!
The mood around the squad was somber with Lippi fully accepting all the blame for the debacle and Gattuso being being particularly sober in his comments about this being an opportunity to reassess the whole of Italian football. As tough as it must be for Italy to face this at least they are not limping out the way their opponent in the final four years ago is. The French made unqualified fools of themselves in South Africa both on and off the field. 1 point in a group with Mexico, Uruguay, and South Africa is shameful. To send a starting striker home, have the team boycott practice, a starting fullback refuse to play, then have the coach storm off without shaking hands with his counterpart make it perhaps the worst display at a world cup in recent memory.
The good news for these two national teams at a time of sorrow is that the future is actually pretty bright for both of them (or can be at least). They both know who their next manager will be. Laurent Blanc for France and Cesare Prandelli for Italy. Both very competent guys who will add a new element and inject their teams with a sense of change that is desperately needed right now. And, countries are blessed with talented pools of young players that would be a dream in other parts of the world. Although France is probably slightly better positioned for Ukraine-Poland 2012, by the next world cup and the following Euro I suspect Italy will be back amongst the big guns.
Tomorrow pre-tournament favorites Spain play for their lives in the final group stage match against Chile. The Chileans themselves aren't assured of passage despite having won their first two games, so this will be for all the marbles. I am intrigued by this match for many reasons. The stakes, the players, the managers, etc. Despite mediocre results Spain have dominated their opponents and only dismal finishing kept them from three points against Switzerland and a blow-out against Honduras. Will tomorrow be the day the strike force finally clicks, or the day the wasted opportunities send them home? I honestly don't know.
On the other side I can't wait to see how Chile approach this game. The press is reporting that Marcelo Bielsa intends to take on Spain the way they did their previous opponents: with pressure, pace, attack, and in a peculiar 3-3-1-3 formation. This might be true but I will believe it when I see it. Against a Swiss side built on patience and containment that approach made sense, and against a Honduran team hanging on for dear life from the first minute of the first game there really wasn't an option. But against a high possession team with precise passing and a stable of dangerous attackers, being that aggressive might be a suicidal strategy. Add to that the fact that Chile need only a draw to win the group, and the choice Bielsa must make is a monumental one.
Hope it is as good as the build up, then on to the knock-out rounds!
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thoughts After Game 2s
It is scary how fast the World Cup flies by. After years of anticipation it really does feel like a blink and you missed it kind of thing. Crazy to think we are on the eve of the last group stage matches. Here are some thoughts on the second games:
Afri-still-cant-
Last week I said I was not surprised by the African let downs, and the second games did nothing to change my opinion. It is sad in a way but not at all unexpected. Some teams got tough draws, some clearly aren't on the level, and some just didn't have things break their way. I feel kind of bad for Cameroon who I thought played a great game against Denmark and probably deserved a draw. That is the thing about tournaments like this: one bad day like they had against Japan, and you are on the brink of going home.
And then there are two clear illustrations of one of the big things I think is missing from African football: an awareness of how big the moment is. The first example came in the Greece-Nigeria game last week. Up a goal about a half hour in a Nigerian player reacted to a normal slightly-below the radar bit of antagonizing body language by kicking the Greek player in the groin, about ten yards from the referee. There is no scenario imaginable in which this doesn't lead to a red card. On ten men for an hour the Nigerians conceded the equalizer and eventually Greece took the lead. It is not a stretch to say 11 on 11 Nigeria could have won. The second example was the feigning injury of the Ivorian player after he ran into Kaka. The Brazilian was already on a yellow and despite his elbow glancing the opponents chest the Ivorian clutched his face and squirmed in faux-pain until the referee sent off Kaka. This is bad because A) the whole world knows your a creep and B) It was in the dying minutes of a 3-1 loss and even then (before Portugal's 7-0 hammering of the Norkos) the Ivorians had to know their only chance at qualification was if Brazil stomped on Portugal in the final game. Much more likely with Kaka than without.
Refereeing-
I spoke too soon when I applauded the job officials have done so far. The second round of games saw a bunch of bad calls but the one inescapable gaffe was the nullification of the USA's dramatic go-ahead goal late in the game versus Slovenia. Replays from every angle show it was a good goal. No fouls, not off the hand, clearly over the line, clearly on-side. There really was no reason to wave it off. And that is where this goes from bad call to one of the all-time worst. Referees make wrong decisions all the time, it is a part of the game. But to make a decision like this and give absolutely no explanation to anyone is beyond comprehension. When it is obviously a goal (if anything the US had two legitimate appeals for a penalty) and you say otherwise... let the world know why. If you are defending a call that turns out to be wrong, you have made a highly visible mistake. If you say "it is not a goal because it is just not, because I said so," your name will live on in infamy and you give life to the not-so-hard-to-encourage conspiracy theorists.
South America-
Through the second round of games South American teams have been the dominant force of the tournament. Of the ten games played the CONMEMBOL nations have piled up 8 wins and 2 draws for an impressive 26 points from a possible 30. The style of play has been as convincing as the statistics. And think about this: as of now Argentina has as many goals as Italy (2) Spain (2) France (0) and England (1) combined. The abundance of European based players in these squads ensures they are comfortable in a foreign setting far from home which may account for the good run of form, at least in part. Another thing is the level of commitment. Argentina and Brazil are always overflowing with talent but the two managers, say what you will about them, each picked 23 men they knew would give everything for the shirt. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile lack no motivation and are all headed by coaches who are extremely thorough and creative. It is easy to kick a team while it is down but does anyone think a CONMEBOL country at this WC would find itself in France's position?
Accumulation-
One thing I think is an absolute detriment to this tournament is the accumulation rule. 2 yellows in the first 5 games lead to an automatic suspension. I understand they want the more sightly aspects of the game on display but this is just absurd. Especially when so much comes to interpretation. And if you are concerned with putting the best of the game on the world stage just look at Kaka's ridiculous suspension as evidence this approach doesn't work. Either make it 3 yellows for a suspension or wipe the slate clean after the group stage.
Bracket Overload Looming-
A lot can change over the next four days but we face the realistic possibility of a massive bracket overload. Without too much stretching and mmmmaybe scenarios we could see one side of the knock-out bracket include Germany, Brazil, Spain, Italy (I don't care how bad they look), and the Netherlands.
Looking forward to the rest of the week's action.
Afri-still-cant-
Last week I said I was not surprised by the African let downs, and the second games did nothing to change my opinion. It is sad in a way but not at all unexpected. Some teams got tough draws, some clearly aren't on the level, and some just didn't have things break their way. I feel kind of bad for Cameroon who I thought played a great game against Denmark and probably deserved a draw. That is the thing about tournaments like this: one bad day like they had against Japan, and you are on the brink of going home.
And then there are two clear illustrations of one of the big things I think is missing from African football: an awareness of how big the moment is. The first example came in the Greece-Nigeria game last week. Up a goal about a half hour in a Nigerian player reacted to a normal slightly-below the radar bit of antagonizing body language by kicking the Greek player in the groin, about ten yards from the referee. There is no scenario imaginable in which this doesn't lead to a red card. On ten men for an hour the Nigerians conceded the equalizer and eventually Greece took the lead. It is not a stretch to say 11 on 11 Nigeria could have won. The second example was the feigning injury of the Ivorian player after he ran into Kaka. The Brazilian was already on a yellow and despite his elbow glancing the opponents chest the Ivorian clutched his face and squirmed in faux-pain until the referee sent off Kaka. This is bad because A) the whole world knows your a creep and B) It was in the dying minutes of a 3-1 loss and even then (before Portugal's 7-0 hammering of the Norkos) the Ivorians had to know their only chance at qualification was if Brazil stomped on Portugal in the final game. Much more likely with Kaka than without.
Refereeing-
I spoke too soon when I applauded the job officials have done so far. The second round of games saw a bunch of bad calls but the one inescapable gaffe was the nullification of the USA's dramatic go-ahead goal late in the game versus Slovenia. Replays from every angle show it was a good goal. No fouls, not off the hand, clearly over the line, clearly on-side. There really was no reason to wave it off. And that is where this goes from bad call to one of the all-time worst. Referees make wrong decisions all the time, it is a part of the game. But to make a decision like this and give absolutely no explanation to anyone is beyond comprehension. When it is obviously a goal (if anything the US had two legitimate appeals for a penalty) and you say otherwise... let the world know why. If you are defending a call that turns out to be wrong, you have made a highly visible mistake. If you say "it is not a goal because it is just not, because I said so," your name will live on in infamy and you give life to the not-so-hard-to-encourage conspiracy theorists.
South America-
Through the second round of games South American teams have been the dominant force of the tournament. Of the ten games played the CONMEMBOL nations have piled up 8 wins and 2 draws for an impressive 26 points from a possible 30. The style of play has been as convincing as the statistics. And think about this: as of now Argentina has as many goals as Italy (2) Spain (2) France (0) and England (1) combined. The abundance of European based players in these squads ensures they are comfortable in a foreign setting far from home which may account for the good run of form, at least in part. Another thing is the level of commitment. Argentina and Brazil are always overflowing with talent but the two managers, say what you will about them, each picked 23 men they knew would give everything for the shirt. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile lack no motivation and are all headed by coaches who are extremely thorough and creative. It is easy to kick a team while it is down but does anyone think a CONMEBOL country at this WC would find itself in France's position?
Accumulation-
One thing I think is an absolute detriment to this tournament is the accumulation rule. 2 yellows in the first 5 games lead to an automatic suspension. I understand they want the more sightly aspects of the game on display but this is just absurd. Especially when so much comes to interpretation. And if you are concerned with putting the best of the game on the world stage just look at Kaka's ridiculous suspension as evidence this approach doesn't work. Either make it 3 yellows for a suspension or wipe the slate clean after the group stage.
Bracket Overload Looming-
A lot can change over the next four days but we face the realistic possibility of a massive bracket overload. Without too much stretching and mmmmaybe scenarios we could see one side of the knock-out bracket include Germany, Brazil, Spain, Italy (I don't care how bad they look), and the Netherlands.
Looking forward to the rest of the week's action.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Thoughts After Game 1s
Every team has now played their first game in the 2010 World Cup, and Uruguay and the host have just finished their second. Still very early in the tournament and patterns and story lines are yet to emerge, but here are some thoughts on the story so far:
Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:
First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.
Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.
Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.
Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.
Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.
The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.
The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.
Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.
On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.
Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.
Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).
And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...
Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.
My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.
Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.
Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.
2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.
3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.
Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:
First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.
Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.
Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.
Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.
Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.
The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.
The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.
Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.
On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.
Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.
Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).
And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...
Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.
My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.
Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.
Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.
2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.
3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.
Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
It Is Finally Here!!!! Thoughts on World Cup Eve
It is less than a day away, my favorite sporting event of all time on earth is about to begin!!!
The World Cup kicks off tomorrow and while I won't be ducking out of work to watch the inaugural South Africa vs. Mexico game, through the magic of summer hour Fridays I will get to see Uruguay vs. France in its entirety without guilt/anxiety/excuses.
I filled out a bracket and I don't really want to say who I picked because it is who I think will win, not who I want. My final match pits two European teams who have never won against each other. I hope I am wrong.
As far as the Golden Boot goes... I have no idea who will win and am not going to make a serious prediction. But I will say this: If you are looking for a dark horse Lucas Barrios might be your guy. For the last 4 years or so he has scored at an astounding pace in several different countries. His haul in the Bundesliga this past season silenced those who thought his goal scoring record was the product of being a good player in average leagues like Mexico and Chile. He was just naturalized in Paraguay and received his first caps in the friendlies these past few weeks. He has 3 goals in 3 games and seems to be continuing his club form for his adopted country. Aside from goal scoring prowess the reason I think he might make a run for topgun is that Paraguay are in a group with Italy and Slovakia, where Barrios can get maybe a goal or two, but then he has New Zealand where there is a possibility of an offensive explosion. I also see Paraguay in the round of 16 at least. And I don't know what the hierarchy is in the Paraguayan side but Barrios has been a penalty taker for years and could notch a few that way.
Tomorrow's opening game will be interesting. Mexico is clearly a better team but the atmosphere will lift South Africa. I envision a game with many twists and turns, changes of pace and dominance, and an eventual draw. Probably 1-1.
For no real reason other than temperment and a hunch I think Uruguay will pull the first upset of the tournament tomorrow against France. Although a team that only squeaked into the World Cup by the narrowest of margins (and even then probably shouldn't be here) with well publicized internal strife is not the France of 4 years ago.
Enjoy!
The World Cup kicks off tomorrow and while I won't be ducking out of work to watch the inaugural South Africa vs. Mexico game, through the magic of summer hour Fridays I will get to see Uruguay vs. France in its entirety without guilt/anxiety/excuses.
I filled out a bracket and I don't really want to say who I picked because it is who I think will win, not who I want. My final match pits two European teams who have never won against each other. I hope I am wrong.
As far as the Golden Boot goes... I have no idea who will win and am not going to make a serious prediction. But I will say this: If you are looking for a dark horse Lucas Barrios might be your guy. For the last 4 years or so he has scored at an astounding pace in several different countries. His haul in the Bundesliga this past season silenced those who thought his goal scoring record was the product of being a good player in average leagues like Mexico and Chile. He was just naturalized in Paraguay and received his first caps in the friendlies these past few weeks. He has 3 goals in 3 games and seems to be continuing his club form for his adopted country. Aside from goal scoring prowess the reason I think he might make a run for topgun is that Paraguay are in a group with Italy and Slovakia, where Barrios can get maybe a goal or two, but then he has New Zealand where there is a possibility of an offensive explosion. I also see Paraguay in the round of 16 at least. And I don't know what the hierarchy is in the Paraguayan side but Barrios has been a penalty taker for years and could notch a few that way.
Tomorrow's opening game will be interesting. Mexico is clearly a better team but the atmosphere will lift South Africa. I envision a game with many twists and turns, changes of pace and dominance, and an eventual draw. Probably 1-1.
For no real reason other than temperment and a hunch I think Uruguay will pull the first upset of the tournament tomorrow against France. Although a team that only squeaked into the World Cup by the narrowest of margins (and even then probably shouldn't be here) with well publicized internal strife is not the France of 4 years ago.
Enjoy!
Thursday, May 20, 2010
On The Mou-ve? Let's Hope Not
With the Champions League final less than 48 hours away the eyes are focused on Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. And the Bernabeu. And who might be the resident manager there next season, who also happens to be leading a team into the big game on Saturday. The story has circled over and over for months now and to anyone who is even remotely interested in football the reasons why Jose Mourinho makes sense as the next Real Madrid manager are evident. Since I am an Inter fan and independently of that have a strong dislike for Real Madrid and a strange affinity for The Special One (even from before he came to the San Siro) here are some reasons to hope he does not bolt for the dark side (I don't care if they wear white):
1. Too many fingers in the pot. Real Madrid is a universe of its own, and anyone who has ever managed there can attest to that. Mourinho, like those before him, would have to deal with several internal interests pushing their views on him. This is something you deal with if you are Manolo Pellegrini making the step up from Villarreal. If you are Jose Mourinho, an obsessive control freak with an elite resume, maybe it is not your thing.
2. Jorge Valdano. Mourinho and Valdano's hatred for each other is well known. It is not just a clash of strong personalities but a different view of the game. The fact that it got personal makes this a stumbling block, in my opinion. It would be simpler if Valdano were just a generic "adviser" in the upper ranks of the organization, but considering he was a legend at the club as both player and manager it wont be easy to push him aside to make Mourinho happy. Real Madrid are a club that place premium value on their icons and he is among the biggest of his generation. Raul even named his first son after him.
3. Style. Jose Mourinho cares about winning first, second, and third. There is nothing else. Sometimes his teams score lots of goals, sometimes they don't. Sometimes he parks the bus and cements it in place, other times he goes away to a tough ground up a goal and starts three strikers. His only philosophy is winning. Real Madrid are, and always have been, obsessed with playing a pretty and attacking style. This has always been a demand on their manager and players and with Barcelona playing the epitome of champagne football and using it to win titles, this will be an utmost priority at the Bernabeu. And to those who believe winning cures all ills consider the managers who have brought home trophies and lost their jobs at Real Madrid for lacking flair. Fabio Capello, Bernd Schuster, even Vicente del Bosque.
4. A shot at history. If Saturday turns out like I think and hope it will Mourinho will have a shot at (even more) glory if he stays at Inter. Because Inter are going for a treble Mourinho would be in a position to capture three more titles before the end of 2010. Spanish and European Supercups and the Club World Cup. Only Pep Guardiola has done it as a manager and The Special One would be the first to do so with an Italian club.
I know the most likely scenario is that the final is Mourinho's last game in charge of Inter but the points listed above have some substance to them.
1. Too many fingers in the pot. Real Madrid is a universe of its own, and anyone who has ever managed there can attest to that. Mourinho, like those before him, would have to deal with several internal interests pushing their views on him. This is something you deal with if you are Manolo Pellegrini making the step up from Villarreal. If you are Jose Mourinho, an obsessive control freak with an elite resume, maybe it is not your thing.
2. Jorge Valdano. Mourinho and Valdano's hatred for each other is well known. It is not just a clash of strong personalities but a different view of the game. The fact that it got personal makes this a stumbling block, in my opinion. It would be simpler if Valdano were just a generic "adviser" in the upper ranks of the organization, but considering he was a legend at the club as both player and manager it wont be easy to push him aside to make Mourinho happy. Real Madrid are a club that place premium value on their icons and he is among the biggest of his generation. Raul even named his first son after him.
3. Style. Jose Mourinho cares about winning first, second, and third. There is nothing else. Sometimes his teams score lots of goals, sometimes they don't. Sometimes he parks the bus and cements it in place, other times he goes away to a tough ground up a goal and starts three strikers. His only philosophy is winning. Real Madrid are, and always have been, obsessed with playing a pretty and attacking style. This has always been a demand on their manager and players and with Barcelona playing the epitome of champagne football and using it to win titles, this will be an utmost priority at the Bernabeu. And to those who believe winning cures all ills consider the managers who have brought home trophies and lost their jobs at Real Madrid for lacking flair. Fabio Capello, Bernd Schuster, even Vicente del Bosque.
4. A shot at history. If Saturday turns out like I think and hope it will Mourinho will have a shot at (even more) glory if he stays at Inter. Because Inter are going for a treble Mourinho would be in a position to capture three more titles before the end of 2010. Spanish and European Supercups and the Club World Cup. Only Pep Guardiola has done it as a manager and The Special One would be the first to do so with an Italian club.
I know the most likely scenario is that the final is Mourinho's last game in charge of Inter but the points listed above have some substance to them.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Looking Back on Serie A
As I did last week with the Premiership I am going to quickly revisit my pre-season thoughts on the Italian top flight, although this will be brief by comparison.
I accurately predicted that Inter Milan would retain the crown. If anything I was surprised the Scudetto race came down to the final round. Inter were clearly the best team in Italy and I think a preoccupation with their Champion's League campaign was to blame for dropping points against modest competition during the early months of 2010 and allowing Roma into the race.
Speaking of Roma... I said they would continue to fade from relevance and I was totally wrong. ALTHOUGH... that was with Spalleti still at the helm and in fact they were double digit points off the lead before the Tinkerman came in and turned things around. They deserve all kinds of credit for getting it together and when they return to Europe in the fall they might make some noise.
If I underestimated Roma I was too kind regarding Juventus. Their win against Inter not withstanding the entire season was a let down for the Old Lady. The Brazilian duo that made a splash when they signed over the summer had their ups and downs but the soft spots around the lineup were evident. For a club with a stable of strikers including names like Del Piero, Amauri, Iaquinta, and Trezeguet this team did not look particularly dangerous in attack for long stretches of time this season. Gigi del Neri bolted Genoa to take over in Turin this week. He has his work cut out for him, although not being in the Champs League might clear his plate a bit.
AC Milan finished in 3rd without posing a realistic threat for the title. Yawn.
Of the teams I thought could make a run for the play-in spot I totally missed Sampdoria. They really edged out Palermo, who I liked a lot, by two points. The Cassano-Pazzini combo has gotten all kinds of love and they deserve it, but a guy who did a lot to put Sampdoria in the position they are is Angelo Palombo. His contributious are a little more subtle and further from goal but he is a huge reason they are on the brink of the Champions League.
W/R/T player predictions I got one dead on, one totally wrong, and the third kind of eh...
Felipe Melo was a competent holding midfielder for Juventus and not to blame for their mediocre form, but he did not achieve the level of Cambiasso or Gattuso in years past. They got what they needed from him but I kind of thought he would destroy.
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar I thought would tear Serie A apart but he kind of blew it. The Dutchman netted 7 league goals in 11 starts and 14 appearances off the bench. Not terrible to be fair, but 7 in 25 is nowhere near what he did at Real Madrid and Ajax. KJH was given a reasonable chance to show what he could do by Leonardo and for whatever reason it just didn't click.
Javier Pastore was a huge success for Palermo. He came over as a teenager who had never played in Europe and by the middle of the season he was a key part of a Palermo squad that was in the race for Champion's League football until the last day of the season. Playing behind Miccoli and Cavani Pastore was able to implement his creativity in a league that is not always easy for those kind of players. He totalled 3 goals and 5 helpers in 34 appearances which is a pretty decent tally, but beyond that watching Palermo his contribution was apparent. Some faint rumors have him moving away from Sicily this summer but I think he is there for another year at least.
2009-2010 was fun. Let's hope Inter can finish it off on Saturday.
I accurately predicted that Inter Milan would retain the crown. If anything I was surprised the Scudetto race came down to the final round. Inter were clearly the best team in Italy and I think a preoccupation with their Champion's League campaign was to blame for dropping points against modest competition during the early months of 2010 and allowing Roma into the race.
Speaking of Roma... I said they would continue to fade from relevance and I was totally wrong. ALTHOUGH... that was with Spalleti still at the helm and in fact they were double digit points off the lead before the Tinkerman came in and turned things around. They deserve all kinds of credit for getting it together and when they return to Europe in the fall they might make some noise.
If I underestimated Roma I was too kind regarding Juventus. Their win against Inter not withstanding the entire season was a let down for the Old Lady. The Brazilian duo that made a splash when they signed over the summer had their ups and downs but the soft spots around the lineup were evident. For a club with a stable of strikers including names like Del Piero, Amauri, Iaquinta, and Trezeguet this team did not look particularly dangerous in attack for long stretches of time this season. Gigi del Neri bolted Genoa to take over in Turin this week. He has his work cut out for him, although not being in the Champs League might clear his plate a bit.
AC Milan finished in 3rd without posing a realistic threat for the title. Yawn.
Of the teams I thought could make a run for the play-in spot I totally missed Sampdoria. They really edged out Palermo, who I liked a lot, by two points. The Cassano-Pazzini combo has gotten all kinds of love and they deserve it, but a guy who did a lot to put Sampdoria in the position they are is Angelo Palombo. His contributious are a little more subtle and further from goal but he is a huge reason they are on the brink of the Champions League.
W/R/T player predictions I got one dead on, one totally wrong, and the third kind of eh...
Felipe Melo was a competent holding midfielder for Juventus and not to blame for their mediocre form, but he did not achieve the level of Cambiasso or Gattuso in years past. They got what they needed from him but I kind of thought he would destroy.
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar I thought would tear Serie A apart but he kind of blew it. The Dutchman netted 7 league goals in 11 starts and 14 appearances off the bench. Not terrible to be fair, but 7 in 25 is nowhere near what he did at Real Madrid and Ajax. KJH was given a reasonable chance to show what he could do by Leonardo and for whatever reason it just didn't click.
Javier Pastore was a huge success for Palermo. He came over as a teenager who had never played in Europe and by the middle of the season he was a key part of a Palermo squad that was in the race for Champion's League football until the last day of the season. Playing behind Miccoli and Cavani Pastore was able to implement his creativity in a league that is not always easy for those kind of players. He totalled 3 goals and 5 helpers in 34 appearances which is a pretty decent tally, but beyond that watching Palermo his contribution was apparent. Some faint rumors have him moving away from Sicily this summer but I think he is there for another year at least.
2009-2010 was fun. Let's hope Inter can finish it off on Saturday.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Prem Wrap III- The End
This is it, no more premiership 2009-10 talk for now. The PitchItchy awards for the season:
Best Player- Wayne Rooney
If you just look at the goal tally maybe a case can be made for Didier Drogba but really there is no one in the conversation with Rooney. Every minute of every match saw Rooney make a superhuman effort to keep United in the hunt for the title. With the departures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez there was plenty of slack to take up and Rooney did better than anyone could have asked. His 26 goals were second most in the Premiership but more important was how crucial it was to his team's success. Dimitar Berbatov was the next highest scorer at 12, which happens to me the exact amount of opposition's own goals United benefited from. Without Wayne Rooney Manchester United this season would have been more along the lines of Everton than a point off the title. He also put in some great performances in the Champions League.
Best Manager- Harry Redknapp
A lot of people mention Roy Hodgson and he deserves credit for sure, but in my opinion the best manager over the course of the league season was Harry Redknapp. He took a team that have made a home in the upper half but not quite elite part of the table and got them into the Champions League. Particularly impressive in a season where a pack of teams made legitimate assaults on fourth place. The consistency required of a side, and its manager, to maintain that level over 38 games is impressive. Add to this key wins like the decisive 1-0 away at City on the second to last match. Redknapp brought in Nico Krancjar when Luca Modric went down and he was an absolutely terrific fit. The departures of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent were barely felt. And his tinkering with Gareth Bale eventually turned him into one of the most exciting and effective young players in the premiership. There really is not much Harry Redknapp could have done better this season.
Pitch Itchy 11-
Joe Hart
A. Cole, Michael Dawson, Vermalean, Baines
Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard, Cesc Fabregas, James Milner
Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba
What This Season Meant:
The legacy of the 2009-10 season will be a shift in the balance of power away from England. In the run up to the season 3 of the true superstars in moved to new clubs and none of them were in the Premiership. Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic all migrated to Spain. Money, prestige, and glamour are one thing but on the field the change is evident as well. Domestically the Prem was won with the lowest point total in a while. As everyone knows the race for the last Champions League spot came down to the end and involved many clubs. These are healthy things for the game but they show that the elite clubs have come back to the pack a little bit. This is illustrated even better by the poor English showing in the Champions League. After completely dominating the competition in recent years and habitually claiming 3 of the 4 semifinal spots, English teams failed to go that far for the first time in nearly a decade. United and Arsenal fell in the quarters, Chelsea in the round of 16, and Liverpool hobbled out in the group stage.
Fortunately for the Premiership the level of play is still very high and more importantly (the Portsmouth and Hull blemishes aside) its clubs are on very solid ground compared to those in Italy and Spain. In those countries there are many, many problems lurking beneath the surface that may threaten the viability of the way business done in the next few years. I think we are entering a period of 2-4 years during which the true elite teams will be Barcelona and Real Madrid, but the balance will swing back to England in the not too distant future.
Best Player- Wayne Rooney
If you just look at the goal tally maybe a case can be made for Didier Drogba but really there is no one in the conversation with Rooney. Every minute of every match saw Rooney make a superhuman effort to keep United in the hunt for the title. With the departures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez there was plenty of slack to take up and Rooney did better than anyone could have asked. His 26 goals were second most in the Premiership but more important was how crucial it was to his team's success. Dimitar Berbatov was the next highest scorer at 12, which happens to me the exact amount of opposition's own goals United benefited from. Without Wayne Rooney Manchester United this season would have been more along the lines of Everton than a point off the title. He also put in some great performances in the Champions League.
Best Manager- Harry Redknapp
A lot of people mention Roy Hodgson and he deserves credit for sure, but in my opinion the best manager over the course of the league season was Harry Redknapp. He took a team that have made a home in the upper half but not quite elite part of the table and got them into the Champions League. Particularly impressive in a season where a pack of teams made legitimate assaults on fourth place. The consistency required of a side, and its manager, to maintain that level over 38 games is impressive. Add to this key wins like the decisive 1-0 away at City on the second to last match. Redknapp brought in Nico Krancjar when Luca Modric went down and he was an absolutely terrific fit. The departures of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent were barely felt. And his tinkering with Gareth Bale eventually turned him into one of the most exciting and effective young players in the premiership. There really is not much Harry Redknapp could have done better this season.
Pitch Itchy 11-
Joe Hart
A. Cole, Michael Dawson, Vermalean, Baines
Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard, Cesc Fabregas, James Milner
Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba
What This Season Meant:
The legacy of the 2009-10 season will be a shift in the balance of power away from England. In the run up to the season 3 of the true superstars in moved to new clubs and none of them were in the Premiership. Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic all migrated to Spain. Money, prestige, and glamour are one thing but on the field the change is evident as well. Domestically the Prem was won with the lowest point total in a while. As everyone knows the race for the last Champions League spot came down to the end and involved many clubs. These are healthy things for the game but they show that the elite clubs have come back to the pack a little bit. This is illustrated even better by the poor English showing in the Champions League. After completely dominating the competition in recent years and habitually claiming 3 of the 4 semifinal spots, English teams failed to go that far for the first time in nearly a decade. United and Arsenal fell in the quarters, Chelsea in the round of 16, and Liverpool hobbled out in the group stage.
Fortunately for the Premiership the level of play is still very high and more importantly (the Portsmouth and Hull blemishes aside) its clubs are on very solid ground compared to those in Italy and Spain. In those countries there are many, many problems lurking beneath the surface that may threaten the viability of the way business done in the next few years. I think we are entering a period of 2-4 years during which the true elite teams will be Barcelona and Real Madrid, but the balance will swing back to England in the not too distant future.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Europa League Final
On the eve of the inaugural Europa League final I still have no idea why they changed the name of Europe's second tier international club competition. And it doesn't really matter. This edition is actually pretty attractive to me. I don't support either Fulham or Atletico Madrid, but I am glad to see those two teams in the final. There are several appealing things to each of them. They both live in the shadow of glamour clubs in European capitols, both make due with comparatively modest resources. Fulham has a history of welcoming Americans which I think is kind of cool and I truly enjoy watching Atletico's lethal duo of Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan.
Sometimes it is difficult to see where a club is going and when you look back on a moment after some years have passed you see it in a totally different light. That said I feel like Atleti and Fulham are in very different places. Fulham arrive in the final after a grueling 10 months of qualifying, group stage, and knock-out rounds in addition to the two domestic cups and the intensity of the Premiership. And through it all I get the distinct feeling that Roy Hodgson has built something that can be sustained. A mixture of players that are likely to remain at the club and continue to move up the Prem's challenging rungs, even if it done in small steps.
On the other side is Atletico Madrid, a club that has flirted with the elites in Spain the last few season but has come to the realization it is not in the same orbit as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their decline (although not a collapse to be fair) in performance this season both in Europe and in the league is due in large part to the thin squad they were able to afford. There are some superstars in the side but the roster is not as complete as you would expect from a team that has been in the Champions League the last two seasons. There is very much a sense that one or more of the Atletico's big names will be in a different shirt come August. This coming week in which they will contest a Europa League Final as well as a Copa del Rey might be the closing chapter on a good run. With the money one of their big guns can bring in (my guess is Aguero is the most likely) they can bring in a set of players around which to build a new core.
Although I haven't studied these teams closely I have a general sense of what will happen in Hamburg tomorrow. Fulham are disciplined and hardworking. Physical but with a considerable amount of skill with which they move the ball around. Schwarzer has had some bloopers in goal but in general he is solid and the defense in front of him do a good job. As of today it was uncertain whether Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff will play. If they do not Fulham's attack will suffer. The deal with Atletico is this: a lot of goals. They can score a lot of them, but concede a lot as well. There are times when some of the guys in the back pull it together but it is kind of a crapshoot.
Just for kicks I am going to say Atletico in a wild one 4-3.
Sometimes it is difficult to see where a club is going and when you look back on a moment after some years have passed you see it in a totally different light. That said I feel like Atleti and Fulham are in very different places. Fulham arrive in the final after a grueling 10 months of qualifying, group stage, and knock-out rounds in addition to the two domestic cups and the intensity of the Premiership. And through it all I get the distinct feeling that Roy Hodgson has built something that can be sustained. A mixture of players that are likely to remain at the club and continue to move up the Prem's challenging rungs, even if it done in small steps.
On the other side is Atletico Madrid, a club that has flirted with the elites in Spain the last few season but has come to the realization it is not in the same orbit as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their decline (although not a collapse to be fair) in performance this season both in Europe and in the league is due in large part to the thin squad they were able to afford. There are some superstars in the side but the roster is not as complete as you would expect from a team that has been in the Champions League the last two seasons. There is very much a sense that one or more of the Atletico's big names will be in a different shirt come August. This coming week in which they will contest a Europa League Final as well as a Copa del Rey might be the closing chapter on a good run. With the money one of their big guns can bring in (my guess is Aguero is the most likely) they can bring in a set of players around which to build a new core.
Although I haven't studied these teams closely I have a general sense of what will happen in Hamburg tomorrow. Fulham are disciplined and hardworking. Physical but with a considerable amount of skill with which they move the ball around. Schwarzer has had some bloopers in goal but in general he is solid and the defense in front of him do a good job. As of today it was uncertain whether Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff will play. If they do not Fulham's attack will suffer. The deal with Atletico is this: a lot of goals. They can score a lot of them, but concede a lot as well. There are times when some of the guys in the back pull it together but it is kind of a crapshoot.
Just for kicks I am going to say Atletico in a wild one 4-3.
Prem Wrap II- Predictions Revisited
Last summer I wanted to do an extensive preview/prediction post on the Premiership but procrastination and a bunch of other stuff got in the way, which kind of happens a lot on this blog, so I quickly jotted down some thoughts. Here is how those predictions look at the end of the season:
Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.
Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.
Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.
Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.
I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.
I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.
Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.
Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.
Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.
Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.
I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.
I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Prem Wrap Up I
With all 2o teams in action simultaneously on Sunday the Premiership was the first of the elite European leagues to wrap up its season. Looking back it was a pretty good season for a neutral observer/general fan of the game. At this level there really aren't many shockers over the course of a 38 game season but there was enough drama and quality play to keep me interested. Here are some thoughts on the way things ended:
1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.
2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.
3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.
4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.
Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.
1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.
2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.
3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.
4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.
Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Separation Wednesday
We still have about a half dozen games to go in the big European leagues but I have a feeling what we saw today (and to be fair what may happen tomorrow) will go a long way toward deciding the fates of some clubs on the brink. Off the top of my head here is where I think there was some making or breaking:
England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.
Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.
Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.
On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.
Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.
In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.
England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.
Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.
Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.
On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.
Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.
In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Quarters' Second Half (lotsa math!)
Here we are on the brink of finding out who are the last four standing in the best club competition ON EARTH. I love Champions' League weeks and this one is especially tight because the time zone difference will give us back to back live matches tomorrow. Inter visit Moscow at 12:30 NY time and then Barcelona host Arsenal right after that. Should be a great set of matches. This is what I see coming:
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Quarters Half Done
Math. Division. Of these things (and more) life is made. Interesting first legs for the most part.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Champions!!!!! Quarters!!!!!!!
The quarters kick off tomorrow and I am super stoked. Here is what I think will happen in the first legs:
THE FRENCH QUARTER!!!!!!!
I see this being a tight one in both legs. Tomorrow's match is in Lyon and I think it will be a score draw, probably 1-1.
99 Part II
By any objective measure Manchester United are a better team today than Bayern Munich. Add to that the fact that Arjen Robben, a true difference maker for the Bavarians, will not play tomorrow and the possibility of them winning the home leg looks even more slim. To make things worse Martin Demichelis looks like he will play only 4 weeks after having his face rearranged by M. Ballack in a friendly but can not possibly be expected to perform as an elite center half with that mask on his face. I don't think it is a blowout, but I do see United netting multiple away goals and setting themselves up for a victory lap at Old Trafford. 2-1.
Barsa Arsenal (it ryhmes)
This is the best match up of the round. Two elite clubs that are routinely in the latter stages of the competition. Similar brands(*) of attractive football. A rematch of the 2006 Champions League final. For all of this I doubt it will be very close. They may play similar styles but Barcelona are in a class far above Arsenal. There is not a single position on the field in which Arsenal have an edge. This Barcelona team under Pep has made a habit of playing big in big games, something that can not be said of Arsenal in the last 5 years or so. What I think will surprise many people is the possession advantage Barsa will have, even tomorrow at the Emirates. Their ability to win and keep the ball is truly amazing. The way they will badger and pester Arsenal and force turnovers will be a key factor in deciding the game. The absence of Andres Iniesta will hurt, but I still see Barcelona winning the first leg 2-0.
Inter vs. CSKA Moscow
This one appears lopsided but any team that has made it this far belongs here. There is a slight danger of a let down for Inter after the multiple storylines of their epic triumph at Stamford Bridge. I don't read too much into their mediocre league form since that game. The goal at Inter this season is the Champions League. Mourinho's Inter are much, much, much better organized than Jimenez's Sevilla were and I don't see the kind of breakdowns that allowed CSKA to win in Andalucia happening at the San Siro. At the same time I think there are holes to exploit in the Russian back-line, particularly if two agile strikers like Eto'o and Milito have close support from an attacking midfield player. A tough game but Inter 2-0.
THE FRENCH QUARTER!!!!!!!
I see this being a tight one in both legs. Tomorrow's match is in Lyon and I think it will be a score draw, probably 1-1.
99 Part II
By any objective measure Manchester United are a better team today than Bayern Munich. Add to that the fact that Arjen Robben, a true difference maker for the Bavarians, will not play tomorrow and the possibility of them winning the home leg looks even more slim. To make things worse Martin Demichelis looks like he will play only 4 weeks after having his face rearranged by M. Ballack in a friendly but can not possibly be expected to perform as an elite center half with that mask on his face. I don't think it is a blowout, but I do see United netting multiple away goals and setting themselves up for a victory lap at Old Trafford. 2-1.
Barsa Arsenal (it ryhmes)
This is the best match up of the round. Two elite clubs that are routinely in the latter stages of the competition. Similar brands(*) of attractive football. A rematch of the 2006 Champions League final. For all of this I doubt it will be very close. They may play similar styles but Barcelona are in a class far above Arsenal. There is not a single position on the field in which Arsenal have an edge. This Barcelona team under Pep has made a habit of playing big in big games, something that can not be said of Arsenal in the last 5 years or so. What I think will surprise many people is the possession advantage Barsa will have, even tomorrow at the Emirates. Their ability to win and keep the ball is truly amazing. The way they will badger and pester Arsenal and force turnovers will be a key factor in deciding the game. The absence of Andres Iniesta will hurt, but I still see Barcelona winning the first leg 2-0.
Inter vs. CSKA Moscow
This one appears lopsided but any team that has made it this far belongs here. There is a slight danger of a let down for Inter after the multiple storylines of their epic triumph at Stamford Bridge. I don't read too much into their mediocre league form since that game. The goal at Inter this season is the Champions League. Mourinho's Inter are much, much, much better organized than Jimenez's Sevilla were and I don't see the kind of breakdowns that allowed CSKA to win in Andalucia happening at the San Siro. At the same time I think there are holes to exploit in the Russian back-line, particularly if two agile strikers like Eto'o and Milito have close support from an attacking midfield player. A tough game but Inter 2-0.
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