Thursday, July 1, 2010

First Half of Quarters... so huh?

Two big ones tomorrow. Hopefully I will be able to duck out of work around 11 and catch the second half of the Netherlands vs Brazil game then the whole afternoon game. What I think may happen:

Netherlands vs Brazil-
One of the handful of games we get in every World Cup that get the "this could be the final" tag stamped on it. And rightly so. A terrifyingly efficient and sound Brazilian side that has shown when it is necessary can still be Brazilian. Much more defense and counter than we are used to but only a fool would discount them as serious contenders. This Dutch team is the best of what we have grown to expect from them. They employ a range of tactics and systems but overwhelmingly these are designed to attack. It can be said they arrive at a South American style through European planning.

I am going to side with the Netherlands on this one, which might be a bit of an upset although not much. I foresee a high scoring game with the final score in the 3-2 neighborhood. The difference maker for me is the spontaniety of Arjen Robben. With Brazil's center-halves as solid a pair as can be found in this tournament an attack consisting of the effective yet known industry of Snjeider and Kuyt supporting RVP would probably be contained. But with Robben who has a seemingly endless bag of tricks jumping in to join those three players the Dutch have a dangerous set of options. His ability to run up the right side then cut in and put dangerous shots on goal from 25+ yards will be key. To be fair Holland's defense is a question but this Brazilian team does not push the issue for 90 minutes the way most of the previous incarnations have. That is okay against North Korea and Chile, but it might not work this time. The De Jong/Von Bommel duo shielding the backline may be enough to smother the attack, particularly of Holland go up early.


Uruguay vs Ghana-
Kind of a feel-good match up. Ghana are the lone African team in the first WC held on the continent. They came in minus their best player in Michael Essien and had a very difficult group. Uruguay have not been this far in decades and aside from a few guys are not the collection of stars some of the others in the quarter final stage are.

Although there may be intangible factors that push the Black Stars over the top I see Uruguay winning this rather comfortably. Ghana are sound and solid and not a team that beats itself, but they are also limited. Until their 2-1 win over the USA in the round of 16, all their goals had come from penalty kicks. They just don't have the firepower to shake a solid defense. And that is what Uruguay is. Their fullbacks and center-halves are very tight and one thing Uruguay has always been known for is a tenacity in the midfield that makes their job even easier. That can be expected tomorrow. Then there is something that sets this team apart from the Uruguay of the 90s and 2000s: exceptional skill up top. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are two of the most feared strikers in the world. Cavani is perhaps a notch below them but he is incredibly talented and willing to do the work asked of him. As a triad they will test Ghana in ways they have not been tested this entire tournament (including by Germany).

At both ends of the pitch I expect Uruguayan dominance. Their defense will be unimpressed by Ghana's attack and their attack players will impose their will on the Africans. 3-1 or so.