So the US went out of the 2010 World Cup in the round of 16 and the journey is over. I (along with anyone who has even casually watched the team over the last few months) said the key was to not concede early... and 5 minutes in three American defenders were unable to contain a basic Ghanian stroll down the center of the park and it was 1-0. The US played well but not great for most of the rest of the game and it was just to pull even on Donovan's penalty in the second half. In my opinion there was not much of a difference between the two teams. The Americans had slightly more quality chances and Ghana probably played a tighter game in the middle of the park by a slim margin. The difference is in the details. Ghana took their goals when opportunities presented themselves and the US didn't. Jozy Altidore I thought was particularly mediocre and it is a shame because some of the guys playing alongside and behind him generated chances that could have changed the outcome. Putting Ricardo Clark in the starting 11 then pulling him off for Maurice Edu in the first half is not Bob Bradley's finest hour either. It was sad to see them go but in a way I am thankful the US went out like that and not on another blown call or by goal difference in the group stage. That could have stifled the momentum of the game in this country.
Two interesting matches today. The first is England vs Germany, two traditional powerhouses of European football. 44 years ago England "won" their only World Cup by beating the Germans in London. Since then international football has been more kind to Germany as they won the title twice and came runners-up another three times while the Three Lions never again reached the championship match. A 1990 semi-final between the two was decided on penalty kicks, and twenty years later here we are. Personally I think England have been one of the real let-downs of the tournament and although this might not be the German machine of the 80s I expect them to win comfortably (on the field if not the scoreboard).
Argentina faced Mexico at this round last time and won a 2-1 overtime thriller on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal. The two teams aren't exactly rivals but there are plenty of storylines. In addition to the Maradona-Messi stuff that comes out whenever Argentina play we have the manager's verbal assault on former Mexican manager Ricardo La Volpe, the inclusion of naturalized Argentine Guille Franco in the Mexican squad, Gio Dos Santos vs Messi, and the fact it is not only a rematch of four years ago but Argentina also thrashed Mexico in a Copa America semi-final in 2007. Mexico have a lot of spirit and they deserve credit for knocking out France and surviving a group stage with the host nation. However the gulf in class here is tremendous and in all likelihood Argentina will take this one by at least two goals. 3-1 sounds about right to me.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Biggest USA Game Ever, For Now
It is not a stretch to say we are less than twelve hours away from the biggest US national team game ever. And if they win of course that honor will be passed on to the quarter final match. Certain matches have garnered a legacy with the passage of time: 1-0 over England, the Port of Spain qualifier, last year's Confed Cup win over Spain. But this is that rare moment where achievement, expectations, visibility, and excitement come together in one game.
And the USA will be taking on Ghana as the result of... probably the most important goal in the national team's history. If Landon Donovan had not scored in the dying moments against Algeria there was a perfect storm for a soccer backlash in this country just waiting to be unleashed. Despite all the curiosity and interest from casual fans and the never-watched-soccer-before types I am convinced the fervor for the game would have been crushed. The "referees always want the US to lose" "Why doesn't the game end at 90? Wait why doesn't it end after the added time, like on the second?" "I don't understand why a game can end tied..." and don't even breach the topic of the drawing of lots (which to be fair is an absurdity). But all that vanished as Donovan scored a dramatic winner that stoked casual interest even further.
After following most of the game online from my desk at work I took my lunch early around the 60th and went into the cafeteria where I found one casual 50-something woman watching the game. Soon after I sat down other people began to trickle in. By the 80th minute there were probably a dozen people. Many of them were asking basic questions about the game, genuinely interested in answers, and I remember thinking this is probably happening all over the country. How does offsides work, what about substitutions, what if there is a tie, etc. By the time Landon Donovan scored that goal there were at least 25 people (of them maybe 7 real fans of the game previously) packed around the TV urging the team on. Sometimes epic moments recede into nothing as time goes by, but I feel like this might be a watershed moment for this game in the USA.
As for USA vs Ghana: I feel there are two keys to this game for the United States. The first is don't concede early. They did it against England and Slovenia and only the fortune of the crossbar prevented it from happening again in the last group stage match. Add to that the early goals in the friendlies leading up to the tournament and a dangerous vulnerability becomes apparent. Yes they have bounced back against England and Slovenia and that speaks to the grit of the team, but your luck runs out at some point. Going a goal down early in a must win game is not insurmountable but sooner or later the US will be facing a team capable of shutting the game down and dictating terms.
The second is to be patient. This Michael Essien-less Ghana squad suffer from a lack of offense. They tallied a mere two goals during the group stage and both came from spot shots. A team that relies on penalty kicks to get through group play may do it, but they must realize the reality changes once they enter the knock-out round. It would seem the longer the game remains scoreless, or if the USA grabs the lead, the more Ghana will step out of its comfort zone and commit men forward. At that point the USA will begin to have legitimate counterstrike opportunities.
My picks for today: Uruguay 2-0 South Korea. USA 2-1 Ghana.
Enjoy!
And the USA will be taking on Ghana as the result of... probably the most important goal in the national team's history. If Landon Donovan had not scored in the dying moments against Algeria there was a perfect storm for a soccer backlash in this country just waiting to be unleashed. Despite all the curiosity and interest from casual fans and the never-watched-soccer-before types I am convinced the fervor for the game would have been crushed. The "referees always want the US to lose" "Why doesn't the game end at 90? Wait why doesn't it end after the added time, like on the second?" "I don't understand why a game can end tied..." and don't even breach the topic of the drawing of lots (which to be fair is an absurdity). But all that vanished as Donovan scored a dramatic winner that stoked casual interest even further.
After following most of the game online from my desk at work I took my lunch early around the 60th and went into the cafeteria where I found one casual 50-something woman watching the game. Soon after I sat down other people began to trickle in. By the 80th minute there were probably a dozen people. Many of them were asking basic questions about the game, genuinely interested in answers, and I remember thinking this is probably happening all over the country. How does offsides work, what about substitutions, what if there is a tie, etc. By the time Landon Donovan scored that goal there were at least 25 people (of them maybe 7 real fans of the game previously) packed around the TV urging the team on. Sometimes epic moments recede into nothing as time goes by, but I feel like this might be a watershed moment for this game in the USA.
As for USA vs Ghana: I feel there are two keys to this game for the United States. The first is don't concede early. They did it against England and Slovenia and only the fortune of the crossbar prevented it from happening again in the last group stage match. Add to that the early goals in the friendlies leading up to the tournament and a dangerous vulnerability becomes apparent. Yes they have bounced back against England and Slovenia and that speaks to the grit of the team, but your luck runs out at some point. Going a goal down early in a must win game is not insurmountable but sooner or later the US will be facing a team capable of shutting the game down and dictating terms.
The second is to be patient. This Michael Essien-less Ghana squad suffer from a lack of offense. They tallied a mere two goals during the group stage and both came from spot shots. A team that relies on penalty kicks to get through group play may do it, but they must realize the reality changes once they enter the knock-out round. It would seem the longer the game remains scoreless, or if the USA grabs the lead, the more Ghana will step out of its comfort zone and commit men forward. At that point the USA will begin to have legitimate counterstrike opportunities.
My picks for today: Uruguay 2-0 South Korea. USA 2-1 Ghana.
Enjoy!
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Holders Bow Out and Great Game Tomorrow
Italy became only the fourth defending world champion to go out in the group stage after a 3-2 loss to Slovakia. One of the things we've come to expect at international tournaments is for the Italians to start slow, have the whole world say they are old tired and sloppy, barely squeak out of the group, then turn it on and go deep. 99% of the people saying they picked Slovakia to win are full of it. It was stunning to see the Italians go out like that, but in retrospect the team selection before the World Cup and Lippi's tactics in the three games were woeful. I don't think there is an example of a coach getting it so right in one world cup and getting it so wrong the next time around.
The mood around the squad was somber with Lippi fully accepting all the blame for the debacle and Gattuso being being particularly sober in his comments about this being an opportunity to reassess the whole of Italian football. As tough as it must be for Italy to face this at least they are not limping out the way their opponent in the final four years ago is. The French made unqualified fools of themselves in South Africa both on and off the field. 1 point in a group with Mexico, Uruguay, and South Africa is shameful. To send a starting striker home, have the team boycott practice, a starting fullback refuse to play, then have the coach storm off without shaking hands with his counterpart make it perhaps the worst display at a world cup in recent memory.
The good news for these two national teams at a time of sorrow is that the future is actually pretty bright for both of them (or can be at least). They both know who their next manager will be. Laurent Blanc for France and Cesare Prandelli for Italy. Both very competent guys who will add a new element and inject their teams with a sense of change that is desperately needed right now. And, countries are blessed with talented pools of young players that would be a dream in other parts of the world. Although France is probably slightly better positioned for Ukraine-Poland 2012, by the next world cup and the following Euro I suspect Italy will be back amongst the big guns.
Tomorrow pre-tournament favorites Spain play for their lives in the final group stage match against Chile. The Chileans themselves aren't assured of passage despite having won their first two games, so this will be for all the marbles. I am intrigued by this match for many reasons. The stakes, the players, the managers, etc. Despite mediocre results Spain have dominated their opponents and only dismal finishing kept them from three points against Switzerland and a blow-out against Honduras. Will tomorrow be the day the strike force finally clicks, or the day the wasted opportunities send them home? I honestly don't know.
On the other side I can't wait to see how Chile approach this game. The press is reporting that Marcelo Bielsa intends to take on Spain the way they did their previous opponents: with pressure, pace, attack, and in a peculiar 3-3-1-3 formation. This might be true but I will believe it when I see it. Against a Swiss side built on patience and containment that approach made sense, and against a Honduran team hanging on for dear life from the first minute of the first game there really wasn't an option. But against a high possession team with precise passing and a stable of dangerous attackers, being that aggressive might be a suicidal strategy. Add to that the fact that Chile need only a draw to win the group, and the choice Bielsa must make is a monumental one.
Hope it is as good as the build up, then on to the knock-out rounds!
The mood around the squad was somber with Lippi fully accepting all the blame for the debacle and Gattuso being being particularly sober in his comments about this being an opportunity to reassess the whole of Italian football. As tough as it must be for Italy to face this at least they are not limping out the way their opponent in the final four years ago is. The French made unqualified fools of themselves in South Africa both on and off the field. 1 point in a group with Mexico, Uruguay, and South Africa is shameful. To send a starting striker home, have the team boycott practice, a starting fullback refuse to play, then have the coach storm off without shaking hands with his counterpart make it perhaps the worst display at a world cup in recent memory.
The good news for these two national teams at a time of sorrow is that the future is actually pretty bright for both of them (or can be at least). They both know who their next manager will be. Laurent Blanc for France and Cesare Prandelli for Italy. Both very competent guys who will add a new element and inject their teams with a sense of change that is desperately needed right now. And, countries are blessed with talented pools of young players that would be a dream in other parts of the world. Although France is probably slightly better positioned for Ukraine-Poland 2012, by the next world cup and the following Euro I suspect Italy will be back amongst the big guns.
Tomorrow pre-tournament favorites Spain play for their lives in the final group stage match against Chile. The Chileans themselves aren't assured of passage despite having won their first two games, so this will be for all the marbles. I am intrigued by this match for many reasons. The stakes, the players, the managers, etc. Despite mediocre results Spain have dominated their opponents and only dismal finishing kept them from three points against Switzerland and a blow-out against Honduras. Will tomorrow be the day the strike force finally clicks, or the day the wasted opportunities send them home? I honestly don't know.
On the other side I can't wait to see how Chile approach this game. The press is reporting that Marcelo Bielsa intends to take on Spain the way they did their previous opponents: with pressure, pace, attack, and in a peculiar 3-3-1-3 formation. This might be true but I will believe it when I see it. Against a Swiss side built on patience and containment that approach made sense, and against a Honduran team hanging on for dear life from the first minute of the first game there really wasn't an option. But against a high possession team with precise passing and a stable of dangerous attackers, being that aggressive might be a suicidal strategy. Add to that the fact that Chile need only a draw to win the group, and the choice Bielsa must make is a monumental one.
Hope it is as good as the build up, then on to the knock-out rounds!
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thoughts After Game 2s
It is scary how fast the World Cup flies by. After years of anticipation it really does feel like a blink and you missed it kind of thing. Crazy to think we are on the eve of the last group stage matches. Here are some thoughts on the second games:
Afri-still-cant-
Last week I said I was not surprised by the African let downs, and the second games did nothing to change my opinion. It is sad in a way but not at all unexpected. Some teams got tough draws, some clearly aren't on the level, and some just didn't have things break their way. I feel kind of bad for Cameroon who I thought played a great game against Denmark and probably deserved a draw. That is the thing about tournaments like this: one bad day like they had against Japan, and you are on the brink of going home.
And then there are two clear illustrations of one of the big things I think is missing from African football: an awareness of how big the moment is. The first example came in the Greece-Nigeria game last week. Up a goal about a half hour in a Nigerian player reacted to a normal slightly-below the radar bit of antagonizing body language by kicking the Greek player in the groin, about ten yards from the referee. There is no scenario imaginable in which this doesn't lead to a red card. On ten men for an hour the Nigerians conceded the equalizer and eventually Greece took the lead. It is not a stretch to say 11 on 11 Nigeria could have won. The second example was the feigning injury of the Ivorian player after he ran into Kaka. The Brazilian was already on a yellow and despite his elbow glancing the opponents chest the Ivorian clutched his face and squirmed in faux-pain until the referee sent off Kaka. This is bad because A) the whole world knows your a creep and B) It was in the dying minutes of a 3-1 loss and even then (before Portugal's 7-0 hammering of the Norkos) the Ivorians had to know their only chance at qualification was if Brazil stomped on Portugal in the final game. Much more likely with Kaka than without.
Refereeing-
I spoke too soon when I applauded the job officials have done so far. The second round of games saw a bunch of bad calls but the one inescapable gaffe was the nullification of the USA's dramatic go-ahead goal late in the game versus Slovenia. Replays from every angle show it was a good goal. No fouls, not off the hand, clearly over the line, clearly on-side. There really was no reason to wave it off. And that is where this goes from bad call to one of the all-time worst. Referees make wrong decisions all the time, it is a part of the game. But to make a decision like this and give absolutely no explanation to anyone is beyond comprehension. When it is obviously a goal (if anything the US had two legitimate appeals for a penalty) and you say otherwise... let the world know why. If you are defending a call that turns out to be wrong, you have made a highly visible mistake. If you say "it is not a goal because it is just not, because I said so," your name will live on in infamy and you give life to the not-so-hard-to-encourage conspiracy theorists.
South America-
Through the second round of games South American teams have been the dominant force of the tournament. Of the ten games played the CONMEMBOL nations have piled up 8 wins and 2 draws for an impressive 26 points from a possible 30. The style of play has been as convincing as the statistics. And think about this: as of now Argentina has as many goals as Italy (2) Spain (2) France (0) and England (1) combined. The abundance of European based players in these squads ensures they are comfortable in a foreign setting far from home which may account for the good run of form, at least in part. Another thing is the level of commitment. Argentina and Brazil are always overflowing with talent but the two managers, say what you will about them, each picked 23 men they knew would give everything for the shirt. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile lack no motivation and are all headed by coaches who are extremely thorough and creative. It is easy to kick a team while it is down but does anyone think a CONMEBOL country at this WC would find itself in France's position?
Accumulation-
One thing I think is an absolute detriment to this tournament is the accumulation rule. 2 yellows in the first 5 games lead to an automatic suspension. I understand they want the more sightly aspects of the game on display but this is just absurd. Especially when so much comes to interpretation. And if you are concerned with putting the best of the game on the world stage just look at Kaka's ridiculous suspension as evidence this approach doesn't work. Either make it 3 yellows for a suspension or wipe the slate clean after the group stage.
Bracket Overload Looming-
A lot can change over the next four days but we face the realistic possibility of a massive bracket overload. Without too much stretching and mmmmaybe scenarios we could see one side of the knock-out bracket include Germany, Brazil, Spain, Italy (I don't care how bad they look), and the Netherlands.
Looking forward to the rest of the week's action.
Afri-still-cant-
Last week I said I was not surprised by the African let downs, and the second games did nothing to change my opinion. It is sad in a way but not at all unexpected. Some teams got tough draws, some clearly aren't on the level, and some just didn't have things break their way. I feel kind of bad for Cameroon who I thought played a great game against Denmark and probably deserved a draw. That is the thing about tournaments like this: one bad day like they had against Japan, and you are on the brink of going home.
And then there are two clear illustrations of one of the big things I think is missing from African football: an awareness of how big the moment is. The first example came in the Greece-Nigeria game last week. Up a goal about a half hour in a Nigerian player reacted to a normal slightly-below the radar bit of antagonizing body language by kicking the Greek player in the groin, about ten yards from the referee. There is no scenario imaginable in which this doesn't lead to a red card. On ten men for an hour the Nigerians conceded the equalizer and eventually Greece took the lead. It is not a stretch to say 11 on 11 Nigeria could have won. The second example was the feigning injury of the Ivorian player after he ran into Kaka. The Brazilian was already on a yellow and despite his elbow glancing the opponents chest the Ivorian clutched his face and squirmed in faux-pain until the referee sent off Kaka. This is bad because A) the whole world knows your a creep and B) It was in the dying minutes of a 3-1 loss and even then (before Portugal's 7-0 hammering of the Norkos) the Ivorians had to know their only chance at qualification was if Brazil stomped on Portugal in the final game. Much more likely with Kaka than without.
Refereeing-
I spoke too soon when I applauded the job officials have done so far. The second round of games saw a bunch of bad calls but the one inescapable gaffe was the nullification of the USA's dramatic go-ahead goal late in the game versus Slovenia. Replays from every angle show it was a good goal. No fouls, not off the hand, clearly over the line, clearly on-side. There really was no reason to wave it off. And that is where this goes from bad call to one of the all-time worst. Referees make wrong decisions all the time, it is a part of the game. But to make a decision like this and give absolutely no explanation to anyone is beyond comprehension. When it is obviously a goal (if anything the US had two legitimate appeals for a penalty) and you say otherwise... let the world know why. If you are defending a call that turns out to be wrong, you have made a highly visible mistake. If you say "it is not a goal because it is just not, because I said so," your name will live on in infamy and you give life to the not-so-hard-to-encourage conspiracy theorists.
South America-
Through the second round of games South American teams have been the dominant force of the tournament. Of the ten games played the CONMEMBOL nations have piled up 8 wins and 2 draws for an impressive 26 points from a possible 30. The style of play has been as convincing as the statistics. And think about this: as of now Argentina has as many goals as Italy (2) Spain (2) France (0) and England (1) combined. The abundance of European based players in these squads ensures they are comfortable in a foreign setting far from home which may account for the good run of form, at least in part. Another thing is the level of commitment. Argentina and Brazil are always overflowing with talent but the two managers, say what you will about them, each picked 23 men they knew would give everything for the shirt. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile lack no motivation and are all headed by coaches who are extremely thorough and creative. It is easy to kick a team while it is down but does anyone think a CONMEBOL country at this WC would find itself in France's position?
Accumulation-
One thing I think is an absolute detriment to this tournament is the accumulation rule. 2 yellows in the first 5 games lead to an automatic suspension. I understand they want the more sightly aspects of the game on display but this is just absurd. Especially when so much comes to interpretation. And if you are concerned with putting the best of the game on the world stage just look at Kaka's ridiculous suspension as evidence this approach doesn't work. Either make it 3 yellows for a suspension or wipe the slate clean after the group stage.
Bracket Overload Looming-
A lot can change over the next four days but we face the realistic possibility of a massive bracket overload. Without too much stretching and mmmmaybe scenarios we could see one side of the knock-out bracket include Germany, Brazil, Spain, Italy (I don't care how bad they look), and the Netherlands.
Looking forward to the rest of the week's action.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Thoughts After Game 1s
Every team has now played their first game in the 2010 World Cup, and Uruguay and the host have just finished their second. Still very early in the tournament and patterns and story lines are yet to emerge, but here are some thoughts on the story so far:
Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:
First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.
Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.
Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.
Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.
Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.
The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.
The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.
Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.
On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.
Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.
Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).
And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...
Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.
My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.
Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.
Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.
2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.
3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.
Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Low Scoring-
This has to be the biggest storyline so far. The tournament is more than a dozen goals off the pace of the lowest scoring WC in this format. Things can change but the abundance of low scoring games can not be ignored. I see three factors:
First is the biggest one, in my opinion. Managers and players alike are petrified of making a mistake in the first game. We all know how difficult it is to qualify for the knock-out rounds after losing the first game and on such a huge stage no team wants to put itself at a disadvantage because they were over-eager early on. This has produced a defensive approach in many games.
Second is the ball. For all the talk of the Jabulani eating up goalkeepers (and to be fair it has happened) I think we all overlooked the difficulty players have in making shots dip with this new ball. By no means is this scientific but I have seen many, many long distance shots (particularly freekicks) sail way above the crossbar without even a hint of a drop in their trajectory. A lot of these look like the type of shots that would break sharply toward the ground in other games.
Third is the inescapable: it just hasn't happened. As much as everyone wants to groan about the smaller and middle-weight type teams playing it close to the vest the truth most of the high profile teams actually have attacked. Germany is exempt from criticism after its rout of Australia. But Argentina, Brazil, and Spain all played very aggressive opening matches. They had double digit shots, plentiful corners, decisive possession advantages, and committed men forward yet they only have three goals to show for it combined. Sometimes the ball just doesn't go in.
Good Refereeing-
We all trash the refs when they get it wrong, and they probably deserve it. But seventeen games into this tournament I have been struck by how many close calls they have gotten right. The Tim Cahill red was harsh, for sure, but that game was lost long before Australia went to ten men no matter what Pim V says. The only controversial call that had any real impact on a game may have been the disallowed Mexican goal in the opener.
Goal Keeping-
The Bad: I have been shocked so many goalies have played so poorly. Italy, USA, Slovenia, and Switzerland were all gifted the goals they scored by horrendous goalkeeping. When you think about it that means the goal total in this WC should be even more dismal. I just don't understand how guys like Green and Casillas can have lapses in concentration at such a big competition. Baffling.
The Good: Tim Howard and Vincent Enyeama both turned in superb performances. Howard played a huge role in the USA taking a point off England and Enyeama is the only thing that stood between Nigeria and a historic pasting at the hands of Argentina.
The Weird: I have never been sold on Memo Ochoa as an elite world class goalkeeper but I know a lot of people who are. Most of them are Mexican. And so it is intriguing to me that a) Perez got the nod over Ochoa against South Africa and b) Ochoa seems to be the third choice keeper going into tomorrow's game against France (per fox en espanol). Very odd.
Silent Stars-
In keeping with the low scoring theme: where are the golden boot front runners? Villa, Messi, Torres, Luis Fabiano, Higuain, Anelka, Rooney, Van Persie, and Cristiano Ronaldo have a combined zero goals. To be fair Diego Forlan tallied two this afternoon, but that was in his second game.
On a different note: Miro Klose's goal against Australia was his 11th in WCs, putting him only 4 behind Ronaldo (the fat one) for the all time record. He probably wont get there this time, but it is not impossible.
Africants-
As I have said many times I am just not a believer when it comes to African teams, club or country. Yes Africa produces elite players that thrive in the most competitive leagues, but that is where it ends. Since I was little I have heard that we are on the verge of an African explosion at a WC... I will believe it when I see it. And it doesn't like I will see it in 2010. The 6 African squads have a combined record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses netting them 5 out of a possible 21 points. Not so hot. And it is not just the numbers: their style of play has been lacklustre. The one exception is Ghana who should be commended for soldiering on without Michael Essien and positioning themselves well to advance. Despite not being too exciting in their 1-0 win over Serbia I thought Ghana were very organized and tactically sound.
Security/Weirdness-
It is impossible to know what South Africa is like without actually being there but I have been struck by how grossly unprepared they seem for this event. The Greek and Uruguayans have been robbed in their hotels. A group of Chinese journalists was carjacked. Other journalists have been robbed (although some of them may have gone off to places they shouldn't). There has been at least one laser pointer incident. Gabriel Batistuta was also the victim of an armed robbery. There have been a shocking amount of empty seats, AT THE WORLD CUP. There was a worker strike at a stadium following a game that required tear gas and riot police (not hooligans, stewards).
And then there is the absurd business of ejecting and jailing 30 girls from the Netherlands for wearing orange dresses. Players, journalists, and commentators robbed? You can never be totally safe. Attractive women in cute dresses? WHOA! whoa, whoa, whoa not on our watch, we have standards here...
Loser Most Likely to Make It-
Spain. Despite a humiliating start to the tournament they remain the best team in the group, perhaps in the entire field. Although they are now behind two teams who won their first opening game things aren't so bad. They have a gimme against Honduras and the two teams with points play each other next. Spain have a squad overloaded with talent and should put the ugly result behind them and move forward. What is really interesting is that misstep may result in a Brazil-Spain round of 16 match if either Chile or Switzerland take care of business.
My runner-up in this category is probably Denmark. Yes they looked over matched at times, but against Holland they aren't the only ones. Japan and Cameroon are winnable games for this team and I doubt either of those squads will be taking more than a point, if that, off the Netherlands.
Don't Get Your Hopes Up-
Slovenia. Was it luck, was it skill? Who knows but a win is a win and that is what they got against Algeria as Robert Koren put one in from just outside the penalty area. Unfortunately for Slovenia their two other opponents are a huge step up in quality and also split the points of their opening match. I hate to say "good job now you are going home" but I think a realistic analysis of the group still has England and the USA making it through.
Odds and Ends-
1. Good job New Zealand! I was super stoked to see the Kiwis grab a point on the late equalizer by Winston Reid. Every NZ'er I have ever met has been awesome and I really dig the spirit of this squad. They are very likely to lose the next two games but sometimes that is not the point. It was great to see them get something.
2. Carlos Alberto Parreira's screed against the referee after SA's loss to Uruguay was odd. Uruguay were clearly the better team and the game was not decided on a particular call. Seldom if ever do those kind of games produce tirades like that. Perhaps more importantly the big calls went for South Africa. A clear penalty was not called when Luis Suarez was struck in the face and a foul on Jorge Fucile merited a red card that was not given.
3. Something is up with Mexico. In addition the intrigue surrounding the goalkeeping situation I mentioned above something else came to light today: Rafa Marquez will be captaining the side against France tomorrow. From all indications Gerardo Torado, the player relinquishing the arm band, will be on the field again. I have no idea if this happens often but I can not remember a single instance where a team has changed captains during a World Cup. Injury or suspension forcing a deputy to take the captaincy yes, but not like this. Maybe it is nothing, but these two tidbits seem like publicly visible signs that all is not well in the Mexican camp.
Hope you are enjoying this as much as I am.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
It Is Finally Here!!!! Thoughts on World Cup Eve
It is less than a day away, my favorite sporting event of all time on earth is about to begin!!!
The World Cup kicks off tomorrow and while I won't be ducking out of work to watch the inaugural South Africa vs. Mexico game, through the magic of summer hour Fridays I will get to see Uruguay vs. France in its entirety without guilt/anxiety/excuses.
I filled out a bracket and I don't really want to say who I picked because it is who I think will win, not who I want. My final match pits two European teams who have never won against each other. I hope I am wrong.
As far as the Golden Boot goes... I have no idea who will win and am not going to make a serious prediction. But I will say this: If you are looking for a dark horse Lucas Barrios might be your guy. For the last 4 years or so he has scored at an astounding pace in several different countries. His haul in the Bundesliga this past season silenced those who thought his goal scoring record was the product of being a good player in average leagues like Mexico and Chile. He was just naturalized in Paraguay and received his first caps in the friendlies these past few weeks. He has 3 goals in 3 games and seems to be continuing his club form for his adopted country. Aside from goal scoring prowess the reason I think he might make a run for topgun is that Paraguay are in a group with Italy and Slovakia, where Barrios can get maybe a goal or two, but then he has New Zealand where there is a possibility of an offensive explosion. I also see Paraguay in the round of 16 at least. And I don't know what the hierarchy is in the Paraguayan side but Barrios has been a penalty taker for years and could notch a few that way.
Tomorrow's opening game will be interesting. Mexico is clearly a better team but the atmosphere will lift South Africa. I envision a game with many twists and turns, changes of pace and dominance, and an eventual draw. Probably 1-1.
For no real reason other than temperment and a hunch I think Uruguay will pull the first upset of the tournament tomorrow against France. Although a team that only squeaked into the World Cup by the narrowest of margins (and even then probably shouldn't be here) with well publicized internal strife is not the France of 4 years ago.
Enjoy!
The World Cup kicks off tomorrow and while I won't be ducking out of work to watch the inaugural South Africa vs. Mexico game, through the magic of summer hour Fridays I will get to see Uruguay vs. France in its entirety without guilt/anxiety/excuses.
I filled out a bracket and I don't really want to say who I picked because it is who I think will win, not who I want. My final match pits two European teams who have never won against each other. I hope I am wrong.
As far as the Golden Boot goes... I have no idea who will win and am not going to make a serious prediction. But I will say this: If you are looking for a dark horse Lucas Barrios might be your guy. For the last 4 years or so he has scored at an astounding pace in several different countries. His haul in the Bundesliga this past season silenced those who thought his goal scoring record was the product of being a good player in average leagues like Mexico and Chile. He was just naturalized in Paraguay and received his first caps in the friendlies these past few weeks. He has 3 goals in 3 games and seems to be continuing his club form for his adopted country. Aside from goal scoring prowess the reason I think he might make a run for topgun is that Paraguay are in a group with Italy and Slovakia, where Barrios can get maybe a goal or two, but then he has New Zealand where there is a possibility of an offensive explosion. I also see Paraguay in the round of 16 at least. And I don't know what the hierarchy is in the Paraguayan side but Barrios has been a penalty taker for years and could notch a few that way.
Tomorrow's opening game will be interesting. Mexico is clearly a better team but the atmosphere will lift South Africa. I envision a game with many twists and turns, changes of pace and dominance, and an eventual draw. Probably 1-1.
For no real reason other than temperment and a hunch I think Uruguay will pull the first upset of the tournament tomorrow against France. Although a team that only squeaked into the World Cup by the narrowest of margins (and even then probably shouldn't be here) with well publicized internal strife is not the France of 4 years ago.
Enjoy!
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