We still have about a half dozen games to go in the big European leagues but I have a feeling what we saw today (and to be fair what may happen tomorrow) will go a long way toward deciding the fates of some clubs on the brink. Off the top of my head here is where I think there was some making or breaking:
England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.
Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.
Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.
On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.
Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.
In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Monday, April 5, 2010
Quarters' Second Half (lotsa math!)
Here we are on the brink of finding out who are the last four standing in the best club competition ON EARTH. I love Champions' League weeks and this one is especially tight because the time zone difference will give us back to back live matches tomorrow. Inter visit Moscow at 12:30 NY time and then Barcelona host Arsenal right after that. Should be a great set of matches. This is what I see coming:
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Quarters Half Done
Math. Division. Of these things (and more) life is made. Interesting first legs for the most part.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
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