Thursday, May 20, 2010

On The Mou-ve? Let's Hope Not

With the Champions League final less than 48 hours away the eyes are focused on Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. And the Bernabeu. And who might be the resident manager there next season, who also happens to be leading a team into the big game on Saturday. The story has circled over and over for months now and to anyone who is even remotely interested in football the reasons why Jose Mourinho makes sense as the next Real Madrid manager are evident. Since I am an Inter fan and independently of that have a strong dislike for Real Madrid and a strange affinity for The Special One (even from before he came to the San Siro) here are some reasons to hope he does not bolt for the dark side (I don't care if they wear white):

1. Too many fingers in the pot. Real Madrid is a universe of its own, and anyone who has ever managed there can attest to that. Mourinho, like those before him, would have to deal with several internal interests pushing their views on him. This is something you deal with if you are Manolo Pellegrini making the step up from Villarreal. If you are Jose Mourinho, an obsessive control freak with an elite resume, maybe it is not your thing.

2. Jorge Valdano. Mourinho and Valdano's hatred for each other is well known. It is not just a clash of strong personalities but a different view of the game. The fact that it got personal makes this a stumbling block, in my opinion. It would be simpler if Valdano were just a generic "adviser" in the upper ranks of the organization, but considering he was a legend at the club as both player and manager it wont be easy to push him aside to make Mourinho happy. Real Madrid are a club that place premium value on their icons and he is among the biggest of his generation. Raul even named his first son after him.

3. Style. Jose Mourinho cares about winning first, second, and third. There is nothing else. Sometimes his teams score lots of goals, sometimes they don't. Sometimes he parks the bus and cements it in place, other times he goes away to a tough ground up a goal and starts three strikers. His only philosophy is winning. Real Madrid are, and always have been, obsessed with playing a pretty and attacking style. This has always been a demand on their manager and players and with Barcelona playing the epitome of champagne football and using it to win titles, this will be an utmost priority at the Bernabeu. And to those who believe winning cures all ills consider the managers who have brought home trophies and lost their jobs at Real Madrid for lacking flair. Fabio Capello, Bernd Schuster, even Vicente del Bosque.

4. A shot at history. If Saturday turns out like I think and hope it will Mourinho will have a shot at (even more) glory if he stays at Inter. Because Inter are going for a treble Mourinho would be in a position to capture three more titles before the end of 2010. Spanish and European Supercups and the Club World Cup. Only Pep Guardiola has done it as a manager and The Special One would be the first to do so with an Italian club.


I know the most likely scenario is that the final is Mourinho's last game in charge of Inter but the points listed above have some substance to them.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Looking Back on Serie A

As I did last week with the Premiership I am going to quickly revisit my pre-season thoughts on the Italian top flight, although this will be brief by comparison.

I accurately predicted that Inter Milan would retain the crown. If anything I was surprised the Scudetto race came down to the final round. Inter were clearly the best team in Italy and I think a preoccupation with their Champion's League campaign was to blame for dropping points against modest competition during the early months of 2010 and allowing Roma into the race.

Speaking of Roma... I said they would continue to fade from relevance and I was totally wrong. ALTHOUGH... that was with Spalleti still at the helm and in fact they were double digit points off the lead before the Tinkerman came in and turned things around. They deserve all kinds of credit for getting it together and when they return to Europe in the fall they might make some noise.

If I underestimated Roma I was too kind regarding Juventus. Their win against Inter not withstanding the entire season was a let down for the Old Lady. The Brazilian duo that made a splash when they signed over the summer had their ups and downs but the soft spots around the lineup were evident. For a club with a stable of strikers including names like Del Piero, Amauri, Iaquinta, and Trezeguet this team did not look particularly dangerous in attack for long stretches of time this season. Gigi del Neri bolted Genoa to take over in Turin this week. He has his work cut out for him, although not being in the Champs League might clear his plate a bit.

AC Milan finished in 3rd without posing a realistic threat for the title. Yawn.

Of the teams I thought could make a run for the play-in spot I totally missed Sampdoria. They really edged out Palermo, who I liked a lot, by two points. The Cassano-Pazzini combo has gotten all kinds of love and they deserve it, but a guy who did a lot to put Sampdoria in the position they are is Angelo Palombo. His contributious are a little more subtle and further from goal but he is a huge reason they are on the brink of the Champions League.

W/R/T player predictions I got one dead on, one totally wrong, and the third kind of eh...

Felipe Melo was a competent holding midfielder for Juventus and not to blame for their mediocre form, but he did not achieve the level of Cambiasso or Gattuso in years past. They got what they needed from him but I kind of thought he would destroy.

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar I thought would tear Serie A apart but he kind of blew it. The Dutchman netted 7 league goals in 11 starts and 14 appearances off the bench. Not terrible to be fair, but 7 in 25 is nowhere near what he did at Real Madrid and Ajax. KJH was given a reasonable chance to show what he could do by Leonardo and for whatever reason it just didn't click.

Javier Pastore was a huge success for Palermo. He came over as a teenager who had never played in Europe and by the middle of the season he was a key part of a Palermo squad that was in the race for Champion's League football until the last day of the season. Playing behind Miccoli and Cavani Pastore was able to implement his creativity in a league that is not always easy for those kind of players. He totalled 3 goals and 5 helpers in 34 appearances which is a pretty decent tally, but beyond that watching Palermo his contribution was apparent. Some faint rumors have him moving away from Sicily this summer but I think he is there for another year at least.

2009-2010 was fun. Let's hope Inter can finish it off on Saturday.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Prem Wrap III- The End

This is it, no more premiership 2009-10 talk for now. The PitchItchy awards for the season:

Best Player- Wayne Rooney
If you just look at the goal tally maybe a case can be made for Didier Drogba but really there is no one in the conversation with Rooney. Every minute of every match saw Rooney make a superhuman effort to keep United in the hunt for the title. With the departures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez there was plenty of slack to take up and Rooney did better than anyone could have asked. His 26 goals were second most in the Premiership but more important was how crucial it was to his team's success. Dimitar Berbatov was the next highest scorer at 12, which happens to me the exact amount of opposition's own goals United benefited from. Without Wayne Rooney Manchester United this season would have been more along the lines of Everton than a point off the title. He also put in some great performances in the Champions League.

Best Manager- Harry Redknapp
A lot of people mention Roy Hodgson and he deserves credit for sure, but in my opinion the best manager over the course of the league season was Harry Redknapp. He took a team that have made a home in the upper half but not quite elite part of the table and got them into the Champions League. Particularly impressive in a season where a pack of teams made legitimate assaults on fourth place. The consistency required of a side, and its manager, to maintain that level over 38 games is impressive. Add to this key wins like the decisive 1-0 away at City on the second to last match. Redknapp brought in Nico Krancjar when Luca Modric went down and he was an absolutely terrific fit. The departures of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent were barely felt. And his tinkering with Gareth Bale eventually turned him into one of the most exciting and effective young players in the premiership. There really is not much Harry Redknapp could have done better this season.

Pitch Itchy 11-

Joe Hart

A. Cole, Michael Dawson, Vermalean, Baines

Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard, Cesc Fabregas, James Milner

Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba


What This Season Meant:
The legacy of the 2009-10 season will be a shift in the balance of power away from England. In the run up to the season 3 of the true superstars in moved to new clubs and none of them were in the Premiership. Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic all migrated to Spain. Money, prestige, and glamour are one thing but on the field the change is evident as well. Domestically the Prem was won with the lowest point total in a while. As everyone knows the race for the last Champions League spot came down to the end and involved many clubs. These are healthy things for the game but they show that the elite clubs have come back to the pack a little bit. This is illustrated even better by the poor English showing in the Champions League. After completely dominating the competition in recent years and habitually claiming 3 of the 4 semifinal spots, English teams failed to go that far for the first time in nearly a decade. United and Arsenal fell in the quarters, Chelsea in the round of 16, and Liverpool hobbled out in the group stage.

Fortunately for the Premiership the level of play is still very high and more importantly (the Portsmouth and Hull blemishes aside) its clubs are on very solid ground compared to those in Italy and Spain. In those countries there are many, many problems lurking beneath the surface that may threaten the viability of the way business done in the next few years. I think we are entering a period of 2-4 years during which the true elite teams will be Barcelona and Real Madrid, but the balance will swing back to England in the not too distant future.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Europa League Final

On the eve of the inaugural Europa League final I still have no idea why they changed the name of Europe's second tier international club competition. And it doesn't really matter. This edition is actually pretty attractive to me. I don't support either Fulham or Atletico Madrid, but I am glad to see those two teams in the final. There are several appealing things to each of them. They both live in the shadow of glamour clubs in European capitols, both make due with comparatively modest resources. Fulham has a history of welcoming Americans which I think is kind of cool and I truly enjoy watching Atletico's lethal duo of Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan.

Sometimes it is difficult to see where a club is going and when you look back on a moment after some years have passed you see it in a totally different light. That said I feel like Atleti and Fulham are in very different places. Fulham arrive in the final after a grueling 10 months of qualifying, group stage, and knock-out rounds in addition to the two domestic cups and the intensity of the Premiership. And through it all I get the distinct feeling that Roy Hodgson has built something that can be sustained. A mixture of players that are likely to remain at the club and continue to move up the Prem's challenging rungs, even if it done in small steps.

On the other side is Atletico Madrid, a club that has flirted with the elites in Spain the last few season but has come to the realization it is not in the same orbit as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their decline (although not a collapse to be fair) in performance this season both in Europe and in the league is due in large part to the thin squad they were able to afford. There are some superstars in the side but the roster is not as complete as you would expect from a team that has been in the Champions League the last two seasons. There is very much a sense that one or more of the Atletico's big names will be in a different shirt come August. This coming week in which they will contest a Europa League Final as well as a Copa del Rey might be the closing chapter on a good run. With the money one of their big guns can bring in (my guess is Aguero is the most likely) they can bring in a set of players around which to build a new core.

Although I haven't studied these teams closely I have a general sense of what will happen in Hamburg tomorrow. Fulham are disciplined and hardworking. Physical but with a considerable amount of skill with which they move the ball around. Schwarzer has had some bloopers in goal but in general he is solid and the defense in front of him do a good job. As of today it was uncertain whether Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff will play. If they do not Fulham's attack will suffer. The deal with Atletico is this: a lot of goals. They can score a lot of them, but concede a lot as well. There are times when some of the guys in the back pull it together but it is kind of a crapshoot.

Just for kicks I am going to say Atletico in a wild one 4-3.

Prem Wrap II- Predictions Revisited

Last summer I wanted to do an extensive preview/prediction post on the Premiership but procrastination and a bunch of other stuff got in the way, which kind of happens a lot on this blog, so I quickly jotted down some thoughts. Here is how those predictions look at the end of the season:

Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.

Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.

Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.

Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.

I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.

I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Prem Wrap Up I

With all 2o teams in action simultaneously on Sunday the Premiership was the first of the elite European leagues to wrap up its season. Looking back it was a pretty good season for a neutral observer/general fan of the game. At this level there really aren't many shockers over the course of a 38 game season but there was enough drama and quality play to keep me interested. Here are some thoughts on the way things ended:

1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.

2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.

3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.

4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.

Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.