WCQ re-cap

We are that much closer to knowing the participants in next summer's World Cup. Cameroon, New Zealand, and Nigeria punched their tickets. I made some predictions before this round of European and American play-offs, some right some wrong. Quick thoughts:

I saw a 1-1 in Athens and it turned out to be a draw, but without goals. This puts Ukraine in an interesting position. They have to win one game at home and they are through... but the classic conundrum of a nil draw in the first leg (away) is that a score draw at home puts the opponent through on away goals. I still think Ukraine do it.

Russia got by 2-1 and although I didn't see the game the reports indicate it was closer than I had expected. Going away to Slovenia there is a chance this gets complicated but I still think Russia go through.

I thought Bosnia would get a point in the first leg but they came up a bit short. A few fortunate bounces off posts ensured Portugal's one goal was enough. To be completely honest I would still be willing to bet Bosnia win this series. Let's see what happens in midweek.

Ireland played hard but France was just too much to overcome. Going home with a win in their pocket France is likely to be back in the World Cup. Although for the record they did lose to Scotland in Paris during qualification for last year's Euros. Still, there is probably too much quality in the French side.

Uruguay got an away win in San Jose by the minimum. I was not at all surprised by this and it could have been by more. I saw a little more than half of this game and a few things came to mind: 1, the ball bounced off the pitch as much yesterday as it did when the US played there in the spring. At what point does the CR federation just say "okay this is absurd we are going to do something about it". 2, the Uruguayans seemed bent on forcing passes through tiny slivers of holes in the Costa Rican defense (it was usually the final ball) and often it didn't work. With other options available they could have done more damage. If they correct this they might run up the score in Montevideo. 3, most of the game was shot as a close up with the camera quickly following the ball. This gave the awkward feeling of not seeing most of the field and not really knowing what was going on in a larger sense. It is strange and kind of amusing at first but robs the viewer of the usual experience of watching a game on television.

Pitch Itch Predicts

Here are some quick thoughts on the eve of the play-offs for the final World Cup spots:

Greece-Ukraine
Ukraine clearly has the better squad but Greece are capable of getting results because of their organization and superb game planning. I am fairly certain Ukraine will go through but the first leg I see ending in a draw, maybe 1-1.

Slovenia-Russia
Of all the European series this is the easiest to pick. Russia will cruise to South Africa. If they hadn't been in a group with Germany they would probably be qualified already. Slovenia are not a bad side and can take comfort in making it this far but knocking off the Russians is extremely unlikely. Saturday's game will probably be 3-0 or so.

Portugal-Bosnia
At first glance you might think Portugal are a good bet to go through but it might not be that simple. They are probably still the favorite but take into consideration they will be without Cristiano Ronaldo for at least the first leg, that Carlos Quieroz is a brilliant football mind but a mediocre head coach, and that the team underwhelmed in qualifying and are only here due to the simultaneous collapse of Hungary and Sweden and it looks like Bosnia has a chance. I will say they Lisbon with a draw and Bosnia wins the second leg.

Ireland-France
This could easily be an upset with Ireland knocking off the runners-up of the previous World Cup. France are overloaded with talent but are burdened with an unbelievably cumbersome coach that severely hampers their ability. Ireland are not nearly as talented but do have some skill players in key spots, always come out and play hard from start to finish, and get a hand from Trappatoni on the bench. I am going to say they win the first leg 1-0 then... who knows.

Costa Rica-Uruguay
Here in North America the prevailing line of thought is that this will be a close series and Costa Rica may sneak through. I strongly disagree. Uruguay are in another class. Costa Rica get some respect by being the third best team in Concacaf, but when you think about it that doesn't really say too much. They do have a good record at home but they rarely play tough opponents. Uruguay's squad is not terribly deep but it does include some elite players like Diego Forlan (top scorer in any European league last year) and Luis Suarez (reigning Dutch golden boot). I see a huge gulf in quality as well as tenacity between the two sides. Maybe 2-1 in Costa Rica and then a comfortable Uruguayan win in Montevideo.

Pellegrini Going?

Of course there have been calls for Pellegrini to leave Real Madrid and thus far the club has supported him. What really caught my attention was that he left Sergio Ramos out of the squad for yesterday's debacle because, according to Pellegrini, he thought the red Ramos received in a league match at the weekend meant he was unavailable. That is worse than when Avram Grant wrote out a team sheet with 10 names. It is borderline unbelievable. Is there any country where cards from one competition apply to another? And even if the answer to that question is yes, Pellegrini has been coaching in Spain's first division for years and should know the rules. When thinking of how that influenced the result of the match... maybe it doesn't look so bad. Madrid held a clean sheet and Ramos presence wide on the right may have threatened but it probably wouldn't have produced another 4 goals. But it does suggest that perhaps Pellegrini's focus on the job at hand is not as sharp as it should be.

On a lighter note I liked the way he handled questions about his decision to bring Marcelo on for Lass. He said he wanted to make sure Lass wasn't hurt and "he wasn't going to score four goals by himself anyway". That made me laugh, and it is true. Still, is an extra defender in place of a holding MF what you want when you are trying to pump in goals? Another move that keeps the doubt buzzing.

In other Pellegrini crisis news there are rumors that Guti may be on his way out at the window. His agent has suggested he may go to Inter, although he admits there has been no contact from the club. Why would Inter want him? I said something similar about Wesley Sneijder and he has turned out to be their best midfielder, but I really don't see Guti moving to the San Siro.

Another Tragedy

I was about to do a very different post, but then I heard of Robert Enke's death and it kind of discouraged me from the long and fact filled idea I had. That is really sad. Enke was currently Germany's number 1 GK and probably would have been with them in the World Cup next summer. All reports say he was hit by a train and most of them suggest it was a suicide. Very sad story. There have been a lot of these things in the last few months. I wonder if it is just a run of bad luck or if the hyper-coverage and proliferation of media brings these stories to us quicker and in more depth than before. Either way, terrible news.

From tragedy to comedy: Real Madrid eliminated from Copa del Rey by Alcorcon! Hahahaha. After getting trounced 4-0 in the first leg Pellegrini brought out the big guns to try and turn it around at the Bernabeu and all they could manage was a meager 1-0 win over the third division club. You can say everyone gives Real Madrid their A-game but really this is embarrassing. In other Copa matches Barcelona stomped on Culutural 5-0 and Atletico finally won a game comfortably, 6-0 over Marbella.

A Change a Lazio?

Lazio started out the season with the Italian Super Cup and two league wins but it has been pretty much a disaster from then on. I watched them lose 2-1 to AC Milan at home today and to be fair they probably deserved a point, but after a string of bad performances (including a devestating 4-1 drubbing by Villarreal in Europa League last week) the notion that Davide Ballardini's days at the helm are numbered is becoming unavoidable. Lazio are by no means a title contender but they have the roster and resources to be much better than they have shown recently.

Early this year (not season) there was a rumor that former Lazio player Diego Simeone was on the verge of taking over but it never materialized. He got the San Lorenzo job instead. It just so happens that his natural cycle is appears to be coming to a close at El Ciclon and he could be available if there is a change at Lazio. San Lorenzo are 6 points back of the leaders as the Argentine tournament enters the home stretch and followed up their Copa Sudamericana elimination during the week with a 1-0 home loss to Banfield. Simeone is a very good manager with titles on his resume but when he loses a locker room it is lost forever. Estudiantes and River Plate are good examples.

Asking a guy who is leaving his job on a less-than-high note in South America to turn around a club in Serie A would be unorthodox but his history with the club, managerial success at an early age, and personal status might make him a gamble Lazio are willing to take.

Inter

That was pretty awesome. The last five minutes of the Dinamo game pretty much erased all the misery that has been Inter in the Champions Leauge so far this season. This has to be one of the weirdest groups in the history of the tournament. After 4 match-days no team has more than 6 points, and every team has a legitimate chance to move on.

Barcelona continue to teeter on the brink of not-so-awesome but I still get the feeling they will beat Dinamo next match and put themselves in a good place. I am very confident for Rubin Kazan's visit to the San Siro.

Fernando Caceres Shot

Just weeks after the horrible crash involving Charlie Davies tragedy has struck the footballing world again. Former Argentine international and Valencia (amongst others) defender Fernando "el negro" Caceres was shot in the head during an attempted carjacking in Buenos Aires. He is currently in the hospital and doctors had some discouraging words about his chances, although that link has some very emotional pictures of support from fans and players.

When I first read the news it was in a Spanish paper and I thought the name sounded familiar. It took a few moments but as I read on and learned he was currently coaching in the Independiente youth system I realized who it was. I remember Caceres from the team that played the World Cup in the US back in 1994, and also as one of the few (but not that few when you really think about it) to play on both sides of the Superclasico Argentino during his career. This is so sad, Pitch Itchy wishes him well.

Not Yet

Going into the weekend it really felt (or maybe I wanted it to?) like Real Madrid were about to enter full-blown crisis mode. Turns out I was wrong. Higuain scored 2 goals a few minutes apart and gave them the derby over Getafe. Guti stayed out of the squad and the bad blood with Pellegrini appears to be there still, but with the three points and Barcelona getting turning a win over Osasuna into a draw via a last minute own goal Madrid are now only one point out of first. Spanish football looks different today than a few days back.

And this week will be huge. A win away in Milan would put Madrid in a very safe position in the Champion's League. Meanwhile Barcelona take on Rubin Kazan in Russia with much more riding on the game than anyone thought when the schedule was released. A single point would essentially assure Sevilla's passage to the next round. Interesting times.