Friday, May 29, 2009

Thoughts On Friday

This weekend will be the last action in Europe for the 2008-09 season. I am going to visit some friends and participate in a garage sale so I will be away, but there are some thoughts on the eve of the curtain dropping:

I am really, really glad Barcelona beat Manchester United on Wednesday. Even as a neutral, the victory symbolized all that is good with football. A mostly homegrown squad that played attractive football and never let an opponent or the circumstances determine their approach. They stuck to their guns and did what they do, proving they are the best in Europe. For those people who still think they were just the best "that night", take a look at what they did throughout the season. 159 goals, Copa Del Rey, Spanish title, Champion's League. They beat defending Spanish champs Real Madrid 2-0 in Barcelona and 6-2 in Madrid. They trounced the defending champions of France and Germany in the CL round of 16 and quarter finals respectively, and they dethroned a very, very good Manchester United in the final. And for me, once again, the real mark of how great this squad is lies in the fact that they played the same regardless of who the rival in front of them was. The same attacking 4-3-3, and did it so well they left no doubt.

Tomorrow is the F.A. Cup final. It is a pretty cool event and even though I am not English and didn't grow up absorbing the "glory and magic of the FA Cup" I see its merit and sort of regret not being able to see Chelsea and Everton battle it out. In this match I see a classic superstar laden team just playing out the season versus a competent, hungry, and gritty underdog. I have a feeling Everton will pull it off, and with Tim Howard (a fellow NJian!!) in goal I will be pulling for them. Speaking of Everton, they finished 5th again in the Prem and will likely be tipped as the most likely to crack the top 4 next season. This time I think there might be something there. Of course it will be tough but anyone who watched them this year will recognize they have a strong squad that is not only dogged and determined but has some real skill in players like Fellaini, Cahill, and Jo and Saha. Next year with the return of Jagielka and more importantly Arteta, as well as the development of Leighton Baines, they will be poised to capitalize if any of the big 4 slip.

While most of the clubs are set for next year's CL, there is still an interesting scenario possible in Italy. If Genoa beat already-condemned Lecce and Fiorentina lose to AC Milan (still playing for second) with a combined margin of 3 goals or more, La Viola will be playing in the inaugural Europa League while Genoa will make a surprise CL appearance.

Speaking of Genoa, it seems they are on the verge of signing Hernan Crespo. Crespo is at the end of his career and not near the player he once was, but in a certain role I think he will be very useful to Genoa. He is a solid, dependable penalty box striker that can provide a steadying presence on a youngish team trying to reach the next level. He has also proved incredibly effective in big games. His track record in Copa Lib matches with River Plate, his timely goals with the Argentine national team (2nd all time on a list with some very impressive names), and big game performances with a handful of Serie A teams might be the edge Genoa are looking for in a partner for Acquafresca.

Finally, I am interested in seeing how the scoring race winds up in Spain. I am still more or less convinced Eto'o is going to pry his way into the Barcelona squad and set a Liga record for most shots/least passes. It will be tough to catch Forlan.

Enjoy the weekend.

-AM

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Barcelona

Pretty awesome final. I am glad Barcelona won by demonstrating their superiority. They left no doubt as to who the better team was. It feels so much more rewarding as a fan to see it go like that than having the champion decided in a shootout or a sketchy call or a ball bouncing off someone's thigh.

The running theme in the Enligh media seems to be that United "failed to show up" and a bunch of cliches about the team in Rome not being the "real United". They have played better at times throughout the season, true, but the thing all these outlets fail to mention is that United weren't at their best because Barca didn't let them. From the tenth minute on Barcelona rarely lost the ball. It is not that Manchester didn't play their best, they were denied the opportunity to do anything.

On Tuesday I outlined what I thought the game would hinge on. Let's see how right I was:

Early Goal- United looked certain to strike first as they had three clear chances in the first few minutes. Eto'o got Barcelona on the board against the run of play at the 10 minute mark and that changed the game. After the first goal Barcelona dictated tempo and United essentially chased the game the rest of the way.

Set Pieces- No one scored from a set piece so this was kind of a non-factor. United's best chance came on the rebound from a CR7 freekick just outside the area. Pique got there a splitsecond ahead of Park and cleared it to safety. One of the big mysteries will be why Ryan Giggs took a dangerous freekick instead of Ronaldo. That was probably their second best chance. On the Barcelona side Xavi hit the post after bending a wicked ball around the wall.

Barcelona's Width- Puyol and Sylvinho surprised me by how much they got forward. They allowed Barcelona to adapt to Dani Alves's absence. For large stretches of the game Messi attacked in a more central role, and as I predicted, did so very effectively. with Xavi and Iniesta behind him this propelled the attack in a much better way than the swinging cross approach would have.

Makeshift Defense- This proved not to be a factor at all. Sylvinho's age didn't show and neither did Puyol and Toure's change of position. Pique was solid in the middle of the defense. I said all they had to do was hold off United until Barcelona scored, and they did that. After the goal the defense was effective but didn't have too much to do.

Bench- This didn't factor too much. Tevez came on for Anderson at the half and worked his heart out, like he always does, but it didn't result in a goal. Berbatov, the other gamebreaker on the United bench, also came on and was practically invisible. Barcelona never needed to introduce an element to change the game and their comparitive shortness on the bench didn't matter.

I said it would be 3-1 Barca. I got the winner and margin right but the total goals wrong. That, and the accuracy of the above reviewed pre-match thoughts are proof of Pitch Itchy's astuteness. Am I a genius? That is not for me to say, you draw your own conclusions.

fun fact: As far as I know Gerard Pique is the first player to win CL titles in back to back seasons with different teams and beat his former team the second time around.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

My Champions League Prediction

In about 24 hours Manchester United and Barcelona will take the field in Rome. This CL is a lot more exciting to me than the past several editions. There are so many storylines. English champion versus Spanish champion, United trying to be the first team to repeat since AC Milan nearly 20 years ago, Barcelona going for their first treble, Ferguson and his sterling career against Pep in his historical debut season as manager, Messi vs Ronaldo. If this game were being played with all players available for both squads I think Barcelona would be favored. But with only one of their four starting defenders available it is more complicated. The consensus seems to be United are a slight favorite. Here are some things I think will determine the game:

Early Goal- In the knockout rounds of the competition Manchester United won 4 and drew 2. They scored early in all their wins. The latest they got their first goal was the 17th minute in the first leg of the semifinal against Arsenal. In the other three victories they got on the board before the 10 minute mark (4 in the 2nd leg against Inter, 6 in the 2nd leg vs porto, and 8 in the 2nd leg of the semi). The history here seems clear, and being a one game winner take all United will be out to strike early. There is an additional incentive: with a lead they can shift into a more defensive formation, putting bodies in the passing lines in the middle of the field. If this happens the final could resemble the Barcelona-Chelsea games of the semifinal round. If Barcelona get an early goal the game will open up and they could strike again before United pull even, exploiting spaces left open by players sent forward in search of the equalizer.

Set Pieces- Advantage United here, clearly. Cristiano Ronaldo is the best freekick taker on either side. Although Xavi is good in these situations too, the absence of Dani Alves rob Barcelona of the element of surprise they have used when both he and Xavi line up behind a ball just outside the area. The Ferdinand-Vidic pairing may also be a factor on set pieces as they will dominate the air game at both ends of the field.

Barcelona's Width- Without Dani Alves a significant feature of Barcelona's attack will be missing. The runs he made up the right flank, often overlapping Messi and opening dangerous passing routes, will not be duplicated by Carles Puyol as an emergency rightback. The question is whether Messi is asked to do more with less support up the flank, or if he is shifted inward and attacks more up the middle. The second option may be better as he has done very well when playing in a central role this season. Against Chelsea Alves easily gained field position and swung in plenty of crosses but Chelsea's central defenders, inferior to United's, had no problem in clearing them. His absence may force Barca to look for different paths of attack which might be a blessing in disguise.

Makeshift Defense- Clearly Pep would feel more comfortable with Abidal-Marquez-Puyol-Alves than the backline taking the field tomorrow but here too there may be a silver lining. The perceived softness of the patchwork defense may tempt United forward in search of goals. The longer the game remains scoreless and this persists the more it will open space for Iniesta and Xavi to do what they do through the middle of the park. I doubt these 4 can withstand a concerted attack for 90 minutes but if they can hold the fort while the guys in front of them get on the board it could be the difference. Or they could be diced by Rooney, CR7, and co.

Bench- This is an undeniable advantage for Manchester United. All indications point to a starting lineup without Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez. Either one of these players could be a total game changer if a goal is needed in the second half. They bring different offensive skills but are both capable of being the difference. United also have players they can plug into midfield to secure that section of the field if they find themselves trying to hold a lead. Barcelona's surplus attackers are less inspiring. Bojan, Eidur G are serviceable players but if they were to score it would be right-place-right-time more than changing the complexion of the match.

I am really stoked to watch this, it will be a very interesting match. Messi said it best when he described it as the speed and power of United against the touch and passing of Barcelona. Which of the two will prevail? I personally think the winner will be clear regardless of the score. I very much doubt extra time and think either United will demonstrate superiority and crush a big fish in a little pond, or Barcelona's efficiency and movement will disarm United. I would not be surprised with either outcome.

So my prediction is....
....
....
3-1.....

Barcelona

Monday, May 25, 2009

Strachan Leaves Celtic

This came seemingly out of the blue. Gordon Strachan resigned as manager of Celtic. Granted, I don't pay as close attention to the SPL as some other leagues, but I didn't think this was a real possibility. He won the title his first three years there and was in it until the final day of the season this year. It is hard to think of where he fits in now, assuming he is looking to be on a touchline at the begining of next season. Celtic is a huge club with global reach and always competeing for a title. It is also a place where you can be assured of some kind of European football. A move to the Prem for Strachan would probably put him a midtable or maybe slightly better club. A lateral move at best.

Weekend Roundup

I didn't watch any football over the last few days as it was Memorial Day weekend here in the USA. BBQs, bro-downs, etc. And also with the big races decided there was very little important footballing going on. Still, looking over the papers this morning here is some stuff I found interesting:

Nicolas Anelka scored on the last day of the season, edging CR7 for top scorer in the Prem. Haha.

In other top scorer news Diego Forlan's hat trick against Athletic put him at 31, 2 goals ahead of Samuel Eto'o in the race for the Pichichi (!) with only one leauge game left. Given what we know about Eto'o I would say there is a good chance he forces his way (phsyically if necessary) into the Barca team sheet next Sunday regardless of the outcome of the CL final. He will be a total blackhole and very likely set the record for shots in a single game. Interesting tidbit: Forlan would be the first Atletico Madrid player to win the honor. He has also played less games than Eto'o.

After being eliminated from the Copa Liberatdores at home it was announced Carlos Ischia will leave Boca Juniors at the end of the season. So one of the most coveted jobs in the Americas is now open. On the other side there is an experienced and manager that could take a team to the next level on the market. This would be funnier to me if River hadn't gone out in the group stage.

Either Bologna or Torino will be relegated in Italy, depending on how the final matchday plays out. Both teams have strikers who could be a missing piece for another team. If they go down I think it is likely we see Di Vaio or Bianchi remain in Serie A with a new team.

Speaking of... Newcastle were relegated. I know they were horrible all year (well in retrospect they looked pretty good with Kevin K. at the very beginning...weird) but it was hard to really picture it until it happened. This team's roster truly looks "too good to go down" on paper. Will there be a massive sell off in the summer? Where will guys like Owen, Martins, Viduka, and Gutierrez be playing next season? An astute manager could boost his club from mid-table to a European place by picking the Newcastle carcass.

Juninho played his final game with Lyon and scored his 100th goal for the club. His departure coincides with the end of the longest current dynasty. Even though I am not a huge fan of the French game watching Juninho was always fun. The "who is best" discussion is always a subjective one but to me no one was better on freekicks. Also French games have the best cinematography of any league in the world, which is weird.

Wolfsburg, Rangers, Leige all won their leagues.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Maradona's List for WCQ

Diego Maradona has released the list of players for Argentina's upcoming qualifiers against Colombia and Ecuador. A few strange decisions were made by El Diez. Here is what I didn't think was awesome:

1, The inclusion of 2 players, GK Federico Vilar and MF Cristian Gimenez currently playing at Mexican clubs. Considering the options available playing at elite European clubs, and the wealth of options from the domestic league which is clearly stronger than Mexico's, this is confusing. Who knows if this pair will see time in the two games or not. Gimenez probably has a better shot as Vilar looks to be the third choice keeper behind JP Carrizo and Mariano Andujar. Not a huge deal, but I think the two spots could have been used better.

2, Rolfe Montenegro and JS Veron are in the squad again. These guys had great moments in their careers, particularly Veron, but their prime is clearly in the past. It would be one thing to bring them in for experience and leadership in a young, naive squad. But that is not the case here.

3, The list does not include an elite 10 in the classic sense. Since his falling out with Riquelme I have thought Maradona better off without him and I am okay with this aspect of the roster. Without replacing Riquelme I am guessing Maradona will come out in a 4-3-3 which I think maximizes the strengths of this group.

4, The strikers are: Messi, Kun Aguero, Tevez, Diego Milito, Licha Lopez, and Gonzalo Bergessio. It is hard to argue with the first four of these. Argentina are overwhelmed with talent at the striker position. There are names left off the list that could start at most other national teams. What caught my eye was the inclusion of Gonzalo Bergessio at the expense of Real Madrid's Gonzalo Higuain. Higuain is 5th on the goal scoring table in La Liga, leading a team packed with superstars having scored 20 league goals. And although Lopez deserves his spot on the team I think Mauro Zarate merits a look in the near future.

A few surprises but all in all a pretty good list. I love international football and look forward to these games.
-AM

Thursday, May 21, 2009

The Prince Comes to Inter

In January I fell for a premature report claiming Genoa had sold Diego Milito to Inter. I was pretty bummed to find out that was not true. But now it seems to be legit. Milito, along with Thiago Motta, are going to the San Siro while Acquafresca (Inter property but on loan at Cagliari) is getting off the island and joining Genoa. As an Inter fan I very much like the move. Thiago Motta I am lukewarm on but Milito is a perfect fit.

With Hernan Crespo and Julio Cruz at the later stages of their careers it is likely they will be moving on. Unfortunately it appears Zlatan Ibrahimovic may as well, though for other reasons. And Mario Balotelli is a phenomenal talent but his difficult personality has singled him out as a troubled guy in a position full of them. Anyone who watched Inter this year knows he is not well liked by teammates, fans, and coaching staff. All this means there is one or possibly two vacancies in the Inter attack.

Milito sits third in the goal scoring with an impressive tally of 20 goals. He has done this on a very modest Genoa side. His strong performance earned the side a spot in next year's Europa League. More important than his achievements this season is the skill set he brings to Inter. As a big strong center forward type with a precise touch around the goal he can be a productive partner for Ibrahimovic, a more well rounded (and to be fair better) striker. If Ibra moves on Milito can fill the central role in Mourinho's preferred three pronged attack, although the guys on his sides may well not be Inter property yet.

This is a great move. Now let's wait and see if Mourinho is calling the shots from the sidelines when Milito makes his Inter debut. Today he came out and said he is "99 percent" sure he will stay at Inter but added that whoever manages Real Madrid next year is a lucky man.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Shakhtar Donetsk Crowned Best of the Rest

Shakhtar won their first European title, beating Werder Bremen 2-1 in overtime for the final UEFA Cup OF ALL TIME!!! The Terrible Tangerines deserved to win the game and objectively speaking they were the better of the two sides but they had a bit of luck on their side as 2 very close 50-50 situations, both in their penalty box, were called in their favor during the 30 minute overtime.

Werder's goal was an absolute screamer of a free kick by Naldo that I am sure will be on highlight packages for days. The SD goalkeeper got his hands to it but it blew right past him. Should have punched it, bro. The first Shakhtar goal was a nice one too, very composed chip executed with the outstep, just out of the reach of the keeper.

So begining next year the consulation cup will be renamed The Europa League. I have no idea why this is. There does not appear to be any significant changes in the tournament. It is still for good teams that don't make the CL cut. Still a competition of considerable calibre but sub-elite. Still group phases then 2 leg knockout stages with a one game winner-take-all final in May.

Pep Discloses 10 of 11 for CL Final

Pep Guardiola has confirmed all but one of the players that will start the final in Rome next week. The line-up assumes Henry and Iniesta will be fit. It also shows the strain Barcelona is under with the Marquez in jury and suspensions of Abidal and Alves. The tentative formation is:

Henry, Eto'o, Messi

Iniesta, Busquets, Xavi

_____, Pique, Toure, Puyol

Valdez

For the leftback spot left vacant by Abidal's red card in London there are three possible replacements: Martin Caceres, Seydou Keita, and Sylvinho. Of these I would say Sylvinho is the best options but according to the Spanish press it is Keita who is the most likely. Sylvinho may be old and a step slower than at his peak but he is solid and experienced and can always be counted on to use his head. Keita, in addition to being an MF asked to play out of position, has often showed lapses of judgement this season. Those kind of mental mistakes can not happen if Barca want to beat United. Caceres is a work in progress and really not ready for prime time.

Seeing Pep's intended formation brings 3 things to mind:

1. Do you really want to show your cards, a whole week in advance? There is a reason Ferguson has not followed suit. Leading up to the biggest game of the season, is it wise to give the opponent a chance to prepare and game plan like that? Perhaps this lineup is not as done a deal as is being reported?

2. It leaves the midfield a little exposed. Is it realistic to expect Sergio Busquets to do all the laboring? The Barcelona midfield's defensive responsibilities are usually not an issue because Toure is superb at running and doing the work necessary, and because they almost always have the lion's share of possession, keeping that work at a level manageable for one elite player. Against United that is not a certainty, and with some vulnerabilities in the Barca defense United can be expected to commit bodies forward and attack the space in the center of the park.

3. Puyol for Alves and one of the three mentioned above for Abidal remove an important dimension from the Barcelona attack. Very, very few teams can count on the movement up the flank Barca get from Alves and his set piece skills will be missed. But this may be a blessing in disguise. Over the two legs of the semi-final Alves routinely advanced deep into Chelsea territory. From there he would swing in crosses, the majority of which were harmlessly cleared away by John Terry. Terry and Chelsea were superior in the air to Barcelona. Vidic and Ferdinand will be as well. The idea of bombing down the touch line then swinging in a cross is a loser in the CL final. Not having this weapon may force Barca to improvise, and it could pay off. The times this season when Barcelona have attacked up the middle they have been successful. Just one example of this is Messi coming off the wing and playing in the center of the park against Real Madrid. The shift sealed the fate of that game, and the league. Reliance on Alves driving and crossing also allowed defenses to contract and set themselves. A quicker more direct attack may expose some holes and create spaces.

The final is just about a week away. I am more excited for this one than I have been in a long time.

Monday, May 18, 2009

The Tinkerman is Out

Juventus fired Claudio Ranieri today after a 2-2 draw with Atalanta over the weekend. I am not surprised really. They were in the CL this year and will be again in the fall, but they never really threatened for a domestic or European title during Ranieri's time. Juve is a club accustomed to trophies and he didn't deliver. There were also rumors of a locker room revolt from veterans over the last few weeks.

So where, if anywhere, does Ranieri fit into the manager musical chairs that is about to kick off? AC Milan will probably have a vacancy that demands a big name, but I think Van Basten is the likely replacement for Ancelotti. If the Tinkerman is on a Serie A bench come August I think Lazio is a good fit. They are in mid-table and have been on the verge of sacking their manager (supposedly) for months. There is a good foundation in that squad and with some tweaks they could challenge for a CL spot again.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

TSO and the Scudetto

Jose Mourinho's Inter team went through the motions today stomping on Siena 3-0 with the title already in the bag. They won the Scudetto with essentially the same team that did it last year. Mourinho inherited an elite squad in top form. Of the three big signings he made in the run up to his first year the only one that panned out was Muntari. Mancini rarely made it off the bench and Quaresma flopped for a half season in Italy before heading to Chelsea to do the same thing. He has succesfully made a failure tour of the three big leagues in Europe. Given this it would be tempting to say Mourinho just kept his hand on the wheel and coasted to the title. True, he didn't have the tallest mountain to climb, but maintaining focus through an entire season has its merits. On paper the squads of Inter's title rivals have as much firepower as they do. Juventus and AC Milan have plenty of names on their rosters that could play anywhere in Europe. Yet Inter's retention of the title was never really in doubt after November. For this Mourinho deserves credit.

I don't know if anyone else has done this, and I would be happy to learn if so, but I think Jose Mourinho is the youngest manager (at 46) to win titles in two of the big European leagues as well as a Champion's League. In addition to the league trophies he won at Chelsea and Inter, Mourinho also won two at Porto. That is an undeniably impressive track record for someone so young. S.G. Eriksson won titles in Sweden, Portugal, and Italy but lacks a Spanish or English title and a CL win to his credit. Fabio Capelo won at Real Madrid and with 3 different Italian teams but didn't do so until age 50.

The best manager argument is always unfair and inconclusive, but I think adding the Scudetto to his resume gives Mourinho a place in the discussion among current coaches. He has won everywhere he has gone, truly. If things at Real Madrid goes the way everyone expects them to, will he be leaving Inter a perfect 1 for 1?

-AM

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Title Saturday

So Manchester United, Barcelona, and Inter Milan all sewed up their domestic titles today. The latter two haven't even played this rounds games yet, their chasers were eliminated when they failed to win earlier today. United ground out a nil draw with Arsenal that put them out of Liverpool's reach.

At the start of the season I picked Inter and Barca to win their leagues. The Premiership I thought would belong to Chelsea, which looks kind of foolish now.

It is worth noting that Barcelona have absolutely annihilated the rest of the league. They are on their way to possibly setting an all time goal scoring record in the Spanish first division and of the top 5 goal scorers in Spanish football, 3 play on Barcelona.

United clinched their third consecutive title with games to spare, something they didn't do last year. Still it is interesting that their record against the other big 4 clubs this season has been a dismal 2 draws, 3 losses, and 1 win. They won the title by way of efficiency taking every point available against the lesser teams.

The scudetto was never in doubt and seeing Inter clinch by way of Udinese's victory over AC Milan feels kind of anti-climactic. Inter drew some games they should have won and lost some they wish they could have back but the rest of the league is very mediocre and only a real catastrophe would have resulted in a different winner.

I had fun following these three leagues this season. Now its time to look forward to Rome. Less 11 days...

Hello Internet

Hey there everyone and welcome to my new blog, Pitch Itchy. This space will be dedicated primarily to soccer/football, although from time to time it will feature observations and comments on other stuff I like. Stuff like skiing, music, movies, bro downs, and books maybe. I am not sure how often I will be posting, especially since this is getting started at the very end of the European seasons, I just want a place to write and maybe dialogue about soccer. I watch/follow the big 3 Euro leagues (Serie A, Prem, and La Liga), Champion's League, the Argentine 1st Division, and the international game so that is mostly what I will be writing about here. Although from time to time I will dabble in other stuff, especially in the off-season coming in a few weeks time. So yeah, check back whenever you get a chance.
-AM