Tuesday, August 24, 2010

El Sevillaso!

For the second time in a week Sevilla was knocked out of a competition by an aggregate score of 5-3. But the embarrassing loss in Andalucia looks light years worse than the drubbing they took at Camp Nou over the weekend. The 4-3 loss at the hands of an inferior Braga side could have very real consequences for Sevilla.

While taking a 3-1 lead into the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup and then watching it nullified as Sevilla was torn to shreds by Barcelona must have stung, there really wasn't much more than bragging rights at stake. The Spanish Super Cup is essentially a one-off trophy for the purpose of bragging rights and start of the season festivity. It is not at the top of any teams history and winning it does not come with any tangible benefits for the season. And besides, Barcelona are arguably the best team in the world and there aren't many teams that could have withstood the battering they laid on Sevilla.

Missing out on the Champions League at the hands of Braga is a different story altogether. When Manolo Jimenez was shown the door last spring after three years on the job it was strongly rumored to have been because the club could not afford to miss the CL in 2010-2011 and it really did not look like they were going to make a serious run for a top four finish. This is not meant in the casual or figurative sense like "we can't afford to keep losing", but literally, in the sense the club has serious financial commitments it is hazardously close to not meeting. Antonio Alvarez did a great job of salvaging the domestic campaign and brought home the Copa del Rey as an encore. But that could be irrelevant in the very near future after they got bumped from the premiere European competition. As of now the club is saying it is not the time to make a change, and it makes sense to let tempers cool. But when a clearly more talented team with more experience and resources loses both legs of a play-off, something will likely change.

The reason I am interested in this beyond the mild shock of seeing a Champions League neophyte knock off a side we have come to regard as solid and professional, is because a possible firesale in Sevilla could change the dynamic of other races in Europe. Over the summer Madrid openly courted Jesus Navas and appears to have been rebuffed under the premise that Sevilla needed him to get into the group stage, or possibly further. Now he is cup tied and his usefulness to a team like Real Madrid is limited. The same can be said for Luis Fabiano who was linked to a big money move to Marsielle (which seemed suspicous to me but apparently there was some truth to it), if a big offer comes in he could still move but teams that can afford those kinds of players are generally fighting on multiple fronts. This squad is loaded with other good players that could be missing pieces somewhere. Guys like Diego Capel, Perotti, Negredo, and Kanoute. That might be the silver lining if Sevilla's financial situation is indeed dire: they have devalued their chips in a failed gamble, but still have enough of them to soften the blow.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Internazionale 2010-2011

Inter begins the Benitez era tomorrow when they face Roma for the Supercoppa. I was a big fan of Mourinho and was sad to see him go, but there is a lot of hope for this season. There are six potential trophies on the line and Inter could join Barcelona as the only team to lay claim to a Hexachampionship.

Over the last few days I have been thinking about how things have changed, as a fan of the club, during recent years. My first memories are of the late 80s/early 90s teams. Most of the Italian football I watched at the time was on the RAI Italian channel in northern New Jersey. It was something in those dark days for football in the USA but in a good season you got maybe 12 games. Now every game is available and you can follow the team as much or as little as you like and be very much in the loop.

I have vague memories of that league title when Serie A was unarguably the elite league in Europe. But for more than a decade and a half after that Inter was a solid and respectable team but not a powerhouse like AC Milan, Real Madrid, or Juventus. The 2006 title felt strange and not altogether real as it was awarded in the courts. There was a sense of the inevitable when they won it again the next year with a depleted league due to the match fixing scandal. By the time they claimed legitimate titles in 2008, 2009, and 2010 it somehow felt old hat. And looking back that is a very strange dynamic. Being title starved for most of the years I supported the team, missing the true euphoria of getting there, and then having it feel old and worn.

Winning the Champions League in May was special and the way in which the team did it (beating Chelsea and Barcelona then having announce to the world they were going to win and never having the outcome of the final in doubt) was a great moment. I remember thinking the treble might be the apex of my time as an Inter supporter, and I am okay with that. What feels a little bizarre is that Inter has become a legitimate European superpower but have done so seemingly through a warp zone. To make a premiership comparison it might be like Spurs being where United in five years. I am glad they are winning enough where it is not treated as a rarity, it is just strange.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Internacional New Champions

For the fourth year in a row a Brazilian team made it to the Copa Libertadores final. For the fourth year in a row they had the second leg at home. But for the first time in those four years they actually lifted the trophy. Internacional beat Chivas 3-2 for a 5-3 aggregate win. As in the first leg Inter were the far (and I mean like FAR) superior side. The scoreline was charitable to the visitors. Nearly without exception Inter's bouts of possession were filled with purpose, creativity, and ideas. For much of the game Chivas looked content with not losing the ball in a dangerous area and pumping it forward blindly. I will admit Chivas' first goal was a highlight reel worthy thing of beauty, but over the 90 minutes they didn't belong on the same field.

Arellano's late two-footed mugging of Andres D'Alessandro near the end brought a deserved straight red. Terrible, terrible tackle.

A few random thoughts:

This is the first time I can remember rooting for a Brazilian team of any kind at club or country level. The manifest lunacy of allowing Chivas to skip qualification AND the group stage and start in the knockout rounds is something that angers me to a level I can not put into words.

I wonder if Internacional de Porto Alegre realize their initials are I.P.A.? They should use that as a moniker, if the abbreviation flies in Portuguese.

There is a good chance (let's be honest it is nearly inevitable) that Internazionale will play Internacional for the Club World Cup this coming December. Whoa! Inter v Inter. Spy v Spy. Argentines and Brazilians v Argentines and Brazilians.

I know it was probably logistically impossible but having the semis and the final after the world cup really killed the stoke for me this time. I usually love the Copa Lib but that is something they should really try to avoid. I am aware it has happened before but I still think it sucks.

That is all.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Ready, Set, Prem!

The Community Shield is behind us, less than three weeks remain in the transfer window, and tomorrow the Premiership returns! Last year we saw a more competitive league at the high end of table than in recent years and I suspect the same is in store for 2010-2011. There will be interesting story lines throughout the season and I believe relegation, European qualification, and the title will all go down to the last round or two. Here are some random thoughts/predictions of mine as we sit on the brink of the new season:

Chelsea won't repeat-
Despite not clinching the title until the last match of the season Chelsea were clearly deserved champions. Against the rest of the "big 4" they were a combined 6-0 with an impressive goal differential. They also set a single season goal record. And yet I think they will relinquish the crown this year. Joe Cole and Michael Ballack's exits were relatively minor and the acquisition of Ramires and Yossi Benayoun along with a return to fitness of Michael Essien may well cancel them out. A more problematic personnel move is the late departure of Ricardo Carvalho for Real Madrid. This leaves Chelsea's central defense exposed. John Terry is not the player he was even two years ago, Alex has yet to prove himself a 38 games a year defender, and there does not appear to be much depth. Ivanovic is probably the best of the backline at Stamford Bridge.

But title runs have been made with similar defenses. The real reasons I think Chelsea will have a very hard time repeating are A, priorities, and B, age. They just won their 3rd Premiership title in 6 seasons but have never won the Champions League/European Cup. Chelsea supporters and ownership alike have their sights set on that title and given they have demonstrated their domestic power over the last half dozen years it would make sense for the focus to be on Europe. Add to that Ancelotti's proven success in the Champions League and the feeling he was brought in more or less with that goal in mind and the priorities seem evident.

Drogba, Anelka, Lampard, and Terry are among the players over 30 on the roster. It is always tough to say at what point exactly a player's career passes its peak and begins to its descent but I have a feeling for at least some of these guys that point is dangerously close. Consider that on top of the 4 fronts the squad is fighting on Chelsea had more players at the World Cup than any other club in Europe. Didier Drogba, the prem's golden boot last season, has had two unrelated surgeries since lifting the trophy in May and also played not one but two international tournaments since New Year's. The demonstrated drop in quality from Terry and Anelka over the last year can not be ignored.

Chelsea are still one of the best teams in England and could well left one or more trophies this coming season. I just don't think they have the depth, fitness, and ability to go through the grueling 38 match season and come out on top.


How Good is Rooney, Does it Matter?
Wayne Rooney was head and shoulders above the rest of the league last season. Can he do it again? Everyone knows he led United in goals and the club's second highest source of offense was opposition's own goals. They have had a modest off-season and although Javier Hernandez and Tom Cleverly looked good in pre-season this squad is not nearly as talented as the Rooney-Ronaldo-Tevez version that won the double a few years back. So the big questions are can Wayne Rooney repeat what he did last season? And if not, are there other guys in the team that can pick up his slack? I tend to think the answer to both questions is no, but we will see.


Beware the Citizens-
I am going to go out on a limb and pick Manchester City to win the Premiership this season. They made a marked improvement last season and despite coming up just short of the Champions League have returned to a place they have not been in many, many years. With much of the same squad in tact and the continuation of Mancini I like their chances. What it really comes down to is that Manchester City have the talent, resources, and schedule in their favor.

A team with a play money budget like City will always be the focus of rumors but even the Balotelli (potentially volatile) signing is their last I don't think an objective look at their roster can say they are second best to anyone in the Prem. Two solid goalkeepers, an improved backline with an attacking option at fullback, a deep and talented midfield, and a strike corps that can score in different ways. And if anything is missing they can always go shopping again in January.

What I think may well be the difference maker is a combination between the new (and stupid) 25-man rule and City's priorities. Missing out on the Champions League may be a blessing in disguise. Where Chelsea will make that their number one goal, City is free to focus on the domestic title. No one will begrudge an alternative line-up for a Europa League match, and although the FA Cup is important, if a match in February has to be sacrificed to ensure the best shot at winning a key league game most City supporters will understand. The new squad restrictions will force teams to make decisions and sacrifices they are not used to. If Mancini handles it properly it will be to his team's advantage.


Newcomers-
I think Mauro Boselli will have a good first season at Wigan. The sale of Jason Scottland indicates Roberto Martinez is content with him and Hugo Rodallega as the primary options up front. I have seen him play a lot for Estudiantes and think he is coming in a little under the radar. Very technically gifted. Maybe a bit on the small side for the Premiership but very intelligent player and lethal with both feet as well as in the air. 12 goals or so I think is realistic.

The other new guy I see putting in a lot of goal is Maroune Chamahk. I know this won't be a surprise but for a guy whose name was thrown around so much last year his move to the Emirates was surprisingly quiet. And coming in he doesn't seem to be getting too much attention. Having him up top gives Arsenal something they have lacked for years aside from the occasional streak when Bendtner gets hot. With Cesc staying for at least one more season I think Chamakh will hit the ground running.


Breakout-
Daniel Sturridge at Chelsea. Gifted and able young striker in an aging group of attack players. He probably wont be first choice but will get plenty of opportunities.


Relegation-
Predicting failure and ruin is not really fun but I think Wolves, Blackpool, and West Brom will be in the Championship next year.


Intriguing Situation-
Who is in goal for Manchester City? Joe Hart and Shay Given are probably both in the top 5 goalkeepers in the Premiership and they happen to be on the same team. Who gets the job? Does the other guy go on loan? Very interesting as the month goes on.


Spurs-
I think will make it out of the group stage of the Champions League. I am not a Spurs supporter but I have a soft spot for this group and wish them well.