On the eve of the inaugural Europa League final I still have no idea why they changed the name of Europe's second tier international club competition. And it doesn't really matter. This edition is actually pretty attractive to me. I don't support either Fulham or Atletico Madrid, but I am glad to see those two teams in the final. There are several appealing things to each of them. They both live in the shadow of glamour clubs in European capitols, both make due with comparatively modest resources. Fulham has a history of welcoming Americans which I think is kind of cool and I truly enjoy watching Atletico's lethal duo of Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan.
Sometimes it is difficult to see where a club is going and when you look back on a moment after some years have passed you see it in a totally different light. That said I feel like Atleti and Fulham are in very different places. Fulham arrive in the final after a grueling 10 months of qualifying, group stage, and knock-out rounds in addition to the two domestic cups and the intensity of the Premiership. And through it all I get the distinct feeling that Roy Hodgson has built something that can be sustained. A mixture of players that are likely to remain at the club and continue to move up the Prem's challenging rungs, even if it done in small steps.
On the other side is Atletico Madrid, a club that has flirted with the elites in Spain the last few season but has come to the realization it is not in the same orbit as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their decline (although not a collapse to be fair) in performance this season both in Europe and in the league is due in large part to the thin squad they were able to afford. There are some superstars in the side but the roster is not as complete as you would expect from a team that has been in the Champions League the last two seasons. There is very much a sense that one or more of the Atletico's big names will be in a different shirt come August. This coming week in which they will contest a Europa League Final as well as a Copa del Rey might be the closing chapter on a good run. With the money one of their big guns can bring in (my guess is Aguero is the most likely) they can bring in a set of players around which to build a new core.
Although I haven't studied these teams closely I have a general sense of what will happen in Hamburg tomorrow. Fulham are disciplined and hardworking. Physical but with a considerable amount of skill with which they move the ball around. Schwarzer has had some bloopers in goal but in general he is solid and the defense in front of him do a good job. As of today it was uncertain whether Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff will play. If they do not Fulham's attack will suffer. The deal with Atletico is this: a lot of goals. They can score a lot of them, but concede a lot as well. There are times when some of the guys in the back pull it together but it is kind of a crapshoot.
Just for kicks I am going to say Atletico in a wild one 4-3.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Prem Wrap II- Predictions Revisited
Last summer I wanted to do an extensive preview/prediction post on the Premiership but procrastination and a bunch of other stuff got in the way, which kind of happens a lot on this blog, so I quickly jotted down some thoughts. Here is how those predictions look at the end of the season:
Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.
Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.
Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.
Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.
I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.
I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.
Champions
I picked Chelsea to win the title and got this one right. You can go with the Blues on any given year and more or less have a 1 in 3 chance of being right, so it is not exactly a crystal ball situation but I think we should all be impressed by my having predicted they would lift the trophy more because they held steady while their rivals were weakened than because of any marked improvement. Considering it only took 86 points to win, lower than any of the last 3 seasons, my pick looks pretty savvy.
Top 4
I didn't do so well picking the rest of the Champs Leaguers. United were always going to finish up there. But I was totally shocked by Liverpool's drop in form. If I said if there was one of the big clubs falling out of the top 4 it would be Arsenal (though I doubted it) and that didn't happen. I also thought the most likely candidate to break into the elite stratum would be Everton and they wound up not even making the Europa League.
Relegation
I picked Portsmouth and two of the promoted clubs (Burnley, Wolves, and Birmingham). I also said the acquisition of Jozy Altidore and Alvaro Negredo would lift Hull out of danger thought I saw them in peril as the season began. About 8 hours after that post news came that the Negredo deal fell through and Altidore went on to more or less flop in the Prem. A correction on yesterday's post: Burnely will NOT be in the Europa League. The Prem's fair play spot has been given to a Scandinavian league.
Other Stuff
I thought West Ham would outperform Sunderland and that was a huge miss. I am shocked at how directionless and sloppy Zola's squad was at times this season. I don't know the amount of points off hand but I think they probably gave up at least 10 points they had sewn up by being careless and losing focus.
I tipped Wigan's Hugo Rodallega to have a breakout season and I think I was half right. The Colombian was Wigan's leading scorer with 10 goals including a highlight reel finish on opening day and a stoppage time winner later in the season. All in all a good campaign but his production really faded late in the season.
I predicted the top scorer would finish with at least 25 goals and this year's golden boot, Didier Drogba, in fact finished with 29. Wayne Rooney was runner up with 26. This is significant because last year's top scorer finished with 19. I win.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Prem Wrap Up I
With all 2o teams in action simultaneously on Sunday the Premiership was the first of the elite European leagues to wrap up its season. Looking back it was a pretty good season for a neutral observer/general fan of the game. At this level there really aren't many shockers over the course of a 38 game season but there was enough drama and quality play to keep me interested. Here are some thoughts on the way things ended:
1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.
2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.
3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.
4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.
Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.
1. Chelsea are just champions and I think their margin of a single point over Manchester United is maybe a touch misleading. They won all 6 games they played against the so-called "Big 4", they set a club record for goals in a season, and they had the best goal difference by a wide margin. Ancelotti's triumph in his first season outside of Italy is impressive and in the likely event they win the FA Cup for the domestic double will minimize the pain of the getting bounced from Europe in the round of 16.
2. After United and Chelsea there really is a gap to the rest of the elite teams. On their day Arsenal and co. can run with anyone but they continue to lack the depth, stability, and consistency to take the points available game after game after game. This is as much a question of resources as it is of culture. The atmosphere present at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford is missing elsewhere.
3. The race for the final Champs League spot was fantastic, maybe even as engaging as the title pursuit itself. Although by game 37 it was down to a winner take all match between Manchester City and Spurs, for most of the season it seemed like 5 teams had a legitimate shot at 4th (those two plus Liverpool, Everton, and Aston Villa) and all played enticing football for stretches of the season. It is too early to tell but I think this season was not an aberration and the future will look more like the spring of 2010 than previous seasons.
4. The Portsmouth debacle is really sad. There really is not much to say other than a bunch of people in suits did really, really, really stupid things and the players on the field along with Avram Grant did an admirable job of playing on under terrible circumstances. Their relegation was inevitable but this is one of those things that bum me out about the game. It is really weird/awesome/funny/bizarre that in the same season Portsmouth were relegated and reached the FA Cup final AND Burnley were relegated by qualified for the Europa League.
Tomorrow I will be back to revisit my Prem Predictions from last summer.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Separation Wednesday
We still have about a half dozen games to go in the big European leagues but I have a feeling what we saw today (and to be fair what may happen tomorrow) will go a long way toward deciding the fates of some clubs on the brink. Off the top of my head here is where I think there was some making or breaking:
England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.
Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.
Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.
On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.
Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.
In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.
England-
Arsenal spit the bit on the hard at White Hart Lane. They got a goal late to halve Tottenham's lead but this game was an occasion where the Gunners showed they did not have the core of a championship calibre club. Derby, yes. Good opponent, sure. Hostile environment, I guess. But still a team that really wants to lay claim to the title should have at the very, very, very least managed a draw. This leaves them six points back of Chelsea with four matches to play. Not impossible but it would take a miracle. To give the situation some perspective I never really thought they were a contender and am impressed they hung around this long. Arsenal are absolutely the "any given day against any given team (except Barcelona, wink)" but from the outset I thought they lacked the laser focus and concentration necessary to milk maximum points from the 38 league games. This might have proved it.
Everton and Aston Villa each took a point from a 2-2 draw that made their fading chances grow a bit darker. Everton will probably not be playing any sort of European football next season and where a win today could have given Villa some hope of a late assault on the final CL spot, it is all but gone.
Spain-
Barcelona have been extremely careful about saying the right thing and given their track record during Pep's tenure it would be a surprise if they started celebrating with 7 games to go. An impressive 3-0 win over Deportivo with some big names missing puts them one step closer. Assuming Real Madrid beat Almeria tomorrow there will be 18 points still in play and Barsa's magic number will be 15. Or it could be as low as 12. Looking at the fixtures left for both clubs, it seems a repeat is very likely.
On the opposite end of the match was the other kind of separation. Not even a month ago it looked like Deportivo had a realistic, if contested, shot at being in the Champions League next year. Now they look unlikely to even appear in the consolation tournament. 43 points is not going to cut it. A full 3 out of 8th spot.
Depor doesn't look so bad when you compare them to Atletico who lost to last place Xerez 2-1 and effectively forfeited qualification for Europe through the league. They have faced some challenges this season for sure but a team with the talent of Atletico and the pedigree of having been in the previous two CL's should be able to take care of business when they host Xerez. Very disappointing.
In all likelihood Xerez are going back down at the end of the season but you have to give them credit for mounting a spirited and gritty bid to stay up. They were looking like a candidate for worst Primera team of all time not too long ago and now they are only six points from safety. They probably won't make it but they can be proud of the effort they put in. It would have been easy to throw your hands up and quit but they didn't. And Malaga could put in a couple of duds, stranger things have happened.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Quarters' Second Half (lotsa math!)
Here we are on the brink of finding out who are the last four standing in the best club competition ON EARTH. I love Champions' League weeks and this one is especially tight because the time zone difference will give us back to back live matches tomorrow. Inter visit Moscow at 12:30 NY time and then Barcelona host Arsenal right after that. Should be a great set of matches. This is what I see coming:
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
It looks like the Russians will be without some of their key players which will make the task of overturning the goal they conceded that much tougher. It seems like Mark Gonzalez will be in the starting 11 this time and I think that maybe helps a little bit. He has always seemed, to me, like the kind of player that occasionally pops in a goal out of the blue. Realistically though this is Inter's to lose. They have the 1-0 advantage going in and their opponents are burdened with seeking a goal. Mourinho is an expert at spotting vulnerabilities and he has the men in his squad to exploit them. Add to that the CSKA defense that I think has been week for the last 3 matches despite surrendering surprisingly few goals. My prediction is Inter 1-0 tomorrow making the aggregate 2-0.
Barcelona vs Arsenal
Last weekend Barcelona hosted CL aspirants Athletic Bilbao and fielded an 11 that was largely a reserve squad then went on and absolutely romped the Basques 4-0. This illustrates the depth and cohesion this club has. Arsenal are very, very fortunate to come out of the first leg with a draw, although they did give up 2 away goals. It is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Gunners win at the Camp Nou. Even if it were a one off and Barcelona didn't have the aggregate edge, and even with Barcelona missing Pique and Puyol. Arsenal will be without Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, and Gallas. More of an impediment than Barcelona's injuries. And then there is the matter of play itself. Barcelona absolutely owned possesion in London. At the Camp Nou Arsenal will be starved for chances. I personally think the urgency will way on the Gunners and they will be reckless, exposing themselves. I see a 3-1 with the lone Arsenal goal coming late and making the game look a bit closer than it really is.
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
Saturday's home loss to Chelsea confirms what I have thought through most of the season: Without Rooney United are not a top 4 team in England. There are some insane rumors that he may play on Wednesday but I don't take them seriously. There are two ways to look at this game. Option 1: United trail on aggregate, are missing by far their best player, have had their weakness exposed, and are facing a Bayern team that will have Bastian S. and Arjen Robben plus a fully fit Gomez and Klose which they didn't in the first leg. It will be a miracle of the margin tomorrow is kept to a goal. Option 2: The only thing United need in order to book a spot in the semi-final is a 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Very doable. I am leaning way, way, way toward the first option. This game might be a draw. More likely a 2-0 win for Bayern Munich.
Bordeaux vs Lyon
3-1 is a big margin to turn around. The fact that these two teams know each other so well could make it either or less likely, but to me it seems the latter. Without the obligation of seeking a goal Lyon will be able to identify the Bordeaux plan and snuff it out. They went to Madrid with a smaller lead and get it done, I think this is well within their reach. Lyon also count on the threat of a counter attack that could make Bordeaux hesitant, particularly with the left and right backs who can be kind of shaky. 1-1.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Quarters Half Done
Math. Division. Of these things (and more) life is made. Interesting first legs for the most part.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
99 part II
Bayern's 2-1 home win was the most surprising result of the round. To me at least. Going in I thought Demichelis should not have started and Rooney exposed him in the worst way less than 10 minutes in. United looked very strong early on and with only a goal difference at the half I thought Munich was fortunate. But the second half was a totally different story. Even with their midfield at half strength Munich owned the space between the penalty areas for most of the second half. Any time the deciding goal is scored in stoppage time there is a sense the victors were lucky and that is fair but I really think Bayern Munich were the better side on the day. With the success a CR7/Tevez-less United has had this year it is easy to forget they are not the squad they were last season. On Tuesday we saw one of the rare moments that proves that. When a motivated, organized, and skilled team set to work against them they no longer have the quality spread throughout the park to overcome it. Or so it looks. Too early to jump to conclusions but the Germans are in very good position going forward.
The French Quarter
I predicted a draw but did so knowing I know little about France. Didn't see the whole game but from what I gather Lyon demonstrated superiority from start to finish. Getting Licha Lopez involved underscores the diversity of weapons they have. Not over but they did themselves well with a 3-1 win in the home leg.
Arsenal vs Barsa
Very, very interesting match. Barcelona went to London and absolutely dominated every facet of the game. On the scoreboard the 2-0 advantage looked merciful for the home team until a miscue and a phantom penalty leveled the score. Then it looked like a miracle. As an observer it is hard to decide if Arsenal should be energized by getting a draw in a game they clearly should have lost, or if they should be terrified they were owned so bad at home and now have to overcome the result at Camp Nou. But going forward the real impact of this game may be the players it left out of the return leg. Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will miss next week's game due to suspension which will alter the makeup of the Barcelona defense. Meanwhile the Gunners will be without Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas, and Andrei Arshavin because of injury. Neither is enviable but Arsenal seems to have suffered the worse setback. Barcelona put themselves in an extremely good position, it just feels like it should have been even better.
Inter vs CSKA
This is a game I watched closely. It has been years since Inter have been this far in the CL and I wanted to soak it in. The 1-0 scoreline is maybe a little disappointing but I thought Inter dominated the match and showed a gulf in class on the field if not the scoreboard. CSKA barely threatened and I doubt the weapons they have are really capable of mounting a sustained siege of Inter's goal. It is a more take your shots when they are there kind of attack. At the other end of the park I was sort of impressed with CSKA's cohesion and ability to limit the quality if not quantity of chances Inter had. There are some pace issues for CSKA but communication and support minimized them. The minimal difference and venue will make the return leg a very exciting match. The home team's obligation to attack I think will produce a different type of game than what we saw at the San Siro.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Champions!!!!! Quarters!!!!!!!
The quarters kick off tomorrow and I am super stoked. Here is what I think will happen in the first legs:
THE FRENCH QUARTER!!!!!!!
I see this being a tight one in both legs. Tomorrow's match is in Lyon and I think it will be a score draw, probably 1-1.
99 Part II
By any objective measure Manchester United are a better team today than Bayern Munich. Add to that the fact that Arjen Robben, a true difference maker for the Bavarians, will not play tomorrow and the possibility of them winning the home leg looks even more slim. To make things worse Martin Demichelis looks like he will play only 4 weeks after having his face rearranged by M. Ballack in a friendly but can not possibly be expected to perform as an elite center half with that mask on his face. I don't think it is a blowout, but I do see United netting multiple away goals and setting themselves up for a victory lap at Old Trafford. 2-1.
Barsa Arsenal (it ryhmes)
This is the best match up of the round. Two elite clubs that are routinely in the latter stages of the competition. Similar brands(*) of attractive football. A rematch of the 2006 Champions League final. For all of this I doubt it will be very close. They may play similar styles but Barcelona are in a class far above Arsenal. There is not a single position on the field in which Arsenal have an edge. This Barcelona team under Pep has made a habit of playing big in big games, something that can not be said of Arsenal in the last 5 years or so. What I think will surprise many people is the possession advantage Barsa will have, even tomorrow at the Emirates. Their ability to win and keep the ball is truly amazing. The way they will badger and pester Arsenal and force turnovers will be a key factor in deciding the game. The absence of Andres Iniesta will hurt, but I still see Barcelona winning the first leg 2-0.
Inter vs. CSKA Moscow
This one appears lopsided but any team that has made it this far belongs here. There is a slight danger of a let down for Inter after the multiple storylines of their epic triumph at Stamford Bridge. I don't read too much into their mediocre league form since that game. The goal at Inter this season is the Champions League. Mourinho's Inter are much, much, much better organized than Jimenez's Sevilla were and I don't see the kind of breakdowns that allowed CSKA to win in Andalucia happening at the San Siro. At the same time I think there are holes to exploit in the Russian back-line, particularly if two agile strikers like Eto'o and Milito have close support from an attacking midfield player. A tough game but Inter 2-0.
THE FRENCH QUARTER!!!!!!!
I see this being a tight one in both legs. Tomorrow's match is in Lyon and I think it will be a score draw, probably 1-1.
99 Part II
By any objective measure Manchester United are a better team today than Bayern Munich. Add to that the fact that Arjen Robben, a true difference maker for the Bavarians, will not play tomorrow and the possibility of them winning the home leg looks even more slim. To make things worse Martin Demichelis looks like he will play only 4 weeks after having his face rearranged by M. Ballack in a friendly but can not possibly be expected to perform as an elite center half with that mask on his face. I don't think it is a blowout, but I do see United netting multiple away goals and setting themselves up for a victory lap at Old Trafford. 2-1.
Barsa Arsenal (it ryhmes)
This is the best match up of the round. Two elite clubs that are routinely in the latter stages of the competition. Similar brands(*) of attractive football. A rematch of the 2006 Champions League final. For all of this I doubt it will be very close. They may play similar styles but Barcelona are in a class far above Arsenal. There is not a single position on the field in which Arsenal have an edge. This Barcelona team under Pep has made a habit of playing big in big games, something that can not be said of Arsenal in the last 5 years or so. What I think will surprise many people is the possession advantage Barsa will have, even tomorrow at the Emirates. Their ability to win and keep the ball is truly amazing. The way they will badger and pester Arsenal and force turnovers will be a key factor in deciding the game. The absence of Andres Iniesta will hurt, but I still see Barcelona winning the first leg 2-0.
Inter vs. CSKA Moscow
This one appears lopsided but any team that has made it this far belongs here. There is a slight danger of a let down for Inter after the multiple storylines of their epic triumph at Stamford Bridge. I don't read too much into their mediocre league form since that game. The goal at Inter this season is the Champions League. Mourinho's Inter are much, much, much better organized than Jimenez's Sevilla were and I don't see the kind of breakdowns that allowed CSKA to win in Andalucia happening at the San Siro. At the same time I think there are holes to exploit in the Russian back-line, particularly if two agile strikers like Eto'o and Milito have close support from an attacking midfield player. A tough game but Inter 2-0.
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